That special time of year has finally come around once again. The tweed jackets are firmly a distant memory and the top hats are back, it’s of course, Royal Ascot. Five days of the most exhilarating bundle of world class flat racing in the calendar year where dreams are simultaneously fulfilled and destroyed within minutes. From the blistering two year olds to the gallant old stayers, the week is a marvellous cocktail catered to everyone’s racing tipple. Many punters have no doubt already lost their pieces to the ante-post puzzle, whereas others are sitting on three aces. Racing is a sphere with little guarantee’s, but you will certainly not want to miss this glorious frenzy of a week.
Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of the opening day of Royal Ascot.
Published: 6.03pm June 14th (Odds correct at time of publication)
2:30pm Queen Anne Stakes (Group 3)
LIGHT INFANTRY (0.5pt EW 3 places – 25/1 generally)
The week kicks off with the Group One Queen Anne Stakes over a mile, with Modern Games and Inspiral priced closely at the head of the market. I’ve had no ante-post selection for this race, so I will be looking to the pair on at the prices with Light Infantry for David Simcock. The trainer all but confirmed his mounts entry in this contest after his short-neck defeat to Anmaat in the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp last month, and that G1 form suggests he’s massively overpriced at 33/1. He was headed twice in the straight after making the running, but still got up for second which defines his tough qualities, something you want at Ascot as it can get tight down at the rail in the finish. Anmaat had previously been beat 2 1/2L by Derby/King George Winner Adayar giving him 5lbs, with Highland Avenue and Regal Reality behind in 3rd/2nd, who reversed those placings when 1st/2nd in the G3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom on Derby weekend, so the form is strong. Admittedly, Light Infantry was beaten 3 1/2 L by Modern Games in the G1 Lockinge prior to Longchamp, however he raced alone for the majority that day and I do think he’s a better horse when amongst the action. He was only beaten a neck behind Inspiral in a Group 3 at Deauville last August which further enhances the claims that he is overpriced. It will be interesting to see what tactics they use this time – both his 2yo wins came when held up, as did both of his G1 2nds in Deauville as a 3yo. The likes of Mutaasabeq and Pogo are likely to make it a good clip here which would suit Light Infantry if he were to be held up. He is versatile in terms of the ground, however I do think he’s better with some cut so with the potential showers forecast and likely watering, the ground may not come up too quick for him. He is actually the joint 2nd top-rated along with Inspiral (1lbs lower than Modern Games) and although that one receives a fillies allowance, he is still over-priced at 33/1.
3:05pm Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
HAATEM (33/1 generally – advised in last week’s column) + GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS (0.75pt E/W – 14/1 generally) *both 3 places*
As mentioned, Haatem was an advised bet in last week’s column for the Coventry after his staying on third in the Woodcote at Epsom, a race won by the ’15 Coventry winner Buratino. Haatem caught my eye staying on strongly after a poor start, shaping as if the stiff six furlongs at Ascot should suit. Richard Hannon’s record of 0-13 in the last 20 renewals is perhaps a tad off-putting, but he did saddle the 2nd last year, in 2019 and in 2016.
The other I like in this race is the unbeaten Givemethebeatboys for the Harrington team, and what a victory it would be for Jessie, who is currently battling breast cancer. Her son of Bungleinthejungle is the 3rd highest rated on RPR’S (105, River Tiber 107) after taking the Group Three Marble Hill Stakes in gritty fashion at the Curragh. He was quick enough to make a ton of ground to get up over 5F on debut and coped with the step up to 6F in similar fashion, suggesting that while he certainly isn’t short of speed, he will appreciate further too – which can only bode well for the six at Ascot, especially if they go off hard. The Marble Hill Stakes can be a good point for Ascot, last year’s winner Blackbeard was 4th in a strong Coventry behind Bradsell, Persian Force and Royal Scotsman. Fairyland was a close 3rd in the ’18 renewal after winning the Marble Hill while Caravaggio did the double in 2016. Shane Foley said afterwards that he’s versatile ground wise, and looks a straight-forward, uncomplicated colt. I think he’s a shade overpriced at 14s, and the market has over-reacted to the flashy win of River Tiber on debut (slow time), for all he did back that up.
3:40pm King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1)
MITBAAHY (E/W – 66/1 generally) + HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (win – 5/1 generally) *Both advised Ante-Post for the column*
Twilight Gleaming (0.5pt E/W – 20/1 generally)
Mitbaahy and Highfield Princess were both advised ante-post in the column, and have shortened significantly. Mitbaahy caught my eye staying on in the Temple Stakes behind Dramatised at Haydock. He was found out by that track bias but fared the best of those riding that side, staying on quickly, shaping as if he’d come on for the run having been off for 237 days. The Temple Stakes have been an excellent pointer toward the King’s Stand in recent years – Twilight Calls was 2nd to Nature Strip last year having finished 2nd at Haydock, Liberty Beach was a close 6th in ’21 after winning the Temple, Battaash won both the ‘19/’18 renewals and was 2nd twice in the King’s Stand in those years respectively before succeeding in ’20. Profitable completed the double in ’16, Priceless was a 1L 4th after winning the Temple in ’15, and Hot Streak was a 1L 3rd in ’14. So it quite clearly pays to follow Temple form, so Dramatised can’t be ignored – but there’s only been four 3yo winners in the last 24 renewals, and I do think he was highly flattered by the track bias that day, plus Equilateral couldn’t win next time out despite down in listed company. In fact, going strictly off that formline, Dramatised would have to find 1/4L with Regional if he was in here, who’s only rated 109. Back to Mitbaahy, he strikes me as an improving sprinter who could come in to his own at 4yrs old, as his sire Profitable did when winning it in ’16.
Highfield Princess lost nothing in defeat to Azure Blue in the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes on her reappearance last month. That was her first time carrying top-weight in G1 company and she’d never won off a break of over 50 days. The drop back to 5F will suit as she’s certainly not short of speed and she looks like a worthy favourite at this stage.
I will be having another play however, and that is on Wesley Ward’s Twilight Gleaming. It’s always a fantastic sight to see the American’s come and have a crack on our patch, but this won’t be her first visit to Royal Ascot. She was 2nd to Quick Suzy over C&D in the 2021 Queen Mary as a 2yo, so it’s a bonus that she handles the course. You may remember Lady Aurelia won the Queen Mary for Ward in 2016, before coming over again to win the King’s Stand in 2017. Coincidentally, Lady Aurelia won the listed Giant’s Causeway Stakes en-route to that King’s Stand success, as did Twilight Gleaming did in April. Ward’s filly won that race in a record time, and it’s certainly telling that he sends her here in an attempt to bid for further King’s Stand success.
4:20pm St James’ Palace Stakes (Group 1)
ROYAL SCOTSMAN (win – 4/1 generally) + MOSTABSHIR (win – 12/1 generally) *Both advised in previous columns*
The 4/1 on Royal Scotsman for this contest has certainly gone the wrong way. He was bitterly disappointing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and I was shocked they even ran him so soon after the gruelling conditions of the English equivalent. He now stands at 14/1, but I suspect they may go for the Jersey with him instead. I’d be happy to draw a line through his Irish Guineas success and if he ends up here, I’d back him at no bigger than 10/1 (EW) on the day.
Mostabshir is the one that’s halved in price and if the ground is rattling, then he stands an excellent chance. His victory at York was impressive to say the least and the form has worked out – Ziryab (5L 2nd) and New Business (7L 4th) both won convincingly next time out. John Gosden has a healthy record of 12-3-7 in the contest, the three wins coming within the last nine running’s and possibly unlucky not to have a couple more (Might Ulysees only beaten 3/4L last year, King of Comedy a neck in 2019). Chaldean will certainly be the one to beat, but Gosden’s comes in here unexposed after just three runs and looks to have bundles of potential.
6:10pm Copper Horse Stakes Handicap (Class 2)
CHILLINGHAM (1.5pt E/W NAP – 20/1 William Hill)
Last but not least on day one of the meeting comes my NAP. Ed Bethell’s Chillingham is a stayer with bundles of potential. He was a well backed winner on seasonal debut when taking a soft ground handicap off a mark of 90. He’s by Ulysees out of an Invincible Spirit mare, so you’d imagine quicker ground will see him in a better light (won on GF). The 4th has won since as has the 6th, who was some 10L back, and nearly followed up off a 5lbs higher mark at Pontefract, so his revised mark of 97 doesn’t look beyond him. In a stable tour early on in the year, Bethell noted that his aim is to get Chillingham up to a mark of 100 and try and win the Ebor, so he clearly rates him highly and he would need to go close to winning this to fulfil that ambition. Interestingly, the handicap he won at Thirsk was won last year by Get Shirty, who won the Copper Horse Stakes at Ascot afterwards. Ed Bethell’s horses have been in incredible form all season (70% RTF) and Callum Rodriguez retains the ride who is 1-1 on the gelding. He only really got going in the last furlong which bodes well for the 1m6f trip on Tuesday and his dam is a half-sister to Profound Beauty (114r) who won five races over 1m6f (4x listed, 2x G3) which provides further optimism. His wins have come around tracks with a bend and he has shown a tendency to hang right, which suggests the Ascot track will suit to a tee.
*All ante-post plays in previous columns advised to 1pt stakes (EW plays 0.5pt)*
Royal Ascot Antepost pointers already advised
Wonder Legend – King George V Stakes
Royal Scotsman – 4/1 St James’ Palace
Midnight Affair – 10/1 Queen Mary
Natural Force – 12/1 Windsor Castle
Ferrari Queen – 40/1 EW Ribblesdale
Point Lonsdale – 10/1 Hardwicke
Highfield Princess – 5/1 Kings Stand
Love Wars – 25/1 Queen Mary EW
Yibir – 20/1 Gold Cup EW
Mostabshir – 12/1 St James’ Palace
Mitbaahy – King’s Stand 66/1 EW
Shining Blue – 16/1 Royal Hunt Cup
Run To Freedom – 33/1 QEII NAP
Haatem 33/1 EW Coventry
Mr Wagyu 16/1 Wokingham
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