Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
Published: 3.00 pm May 10 (Odds correct at time of publication)
Pointers
Cover The Key To Royal Scotsman
While the dampened ground may have looked like we were racing over jumps Ffos Las on a wintry November evening, the Newmarket Guineas weekend confirmed that the flat season was well under way in fashionable style. Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour sought further glory as he added to his Italian 2000 Guineas win with a well-judged ride in the English equivalent on board Chaldean. The son of Frankel emulated his sire’s success in the 2011 running, and he is likely to follow suit and take aim at the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next month. He is already short enough at the top of the market, and I’d be keen on taking him on with Royal Scotsman, who had a torrid run behind Chaldean when a staying on 3rd in the Guineas. He was set alight early on and pulled most of the way, depleting valuable reserves of energy. But despite his freshness and in-running miseries, the way he stayed on in the final furlong on the softest ground he’s encountered was beyond impressive. The St James’ Palace Stakes at Ascot should be more run to suit, as they often come around the home turn in a bunch, suiting horses who require cover. At 4/1, I’d be happy to take a chance that with a run under his belt and a field potentially playing to his strengths, Royal Scotsman will be able to reverse the Guineas form with Chaldean.
Cracksman To Provide Epsom Glory Off The Track
Dance In The Grass – Cracksman x Dance The Dream (Sir Percy) – Trainer: Charlie Johnston.
On Sunday it was the fillies’ time to shine and Oisin Murphy returned to the big stage with a bang after Mawj out-battled the Irish trained hotpot Tahiyra. The pair drew an impressive eight lengths clear from the 3rd Matilda Picotte, with our pick last week Caernarfon staying on for 4th, but it was the 5th placed Dance In The Grass that especially caught my eye at 200/1. The daughter of Cracksman became her sire’s highest rated progeny after given a rating of 104, but I’d be confident she can rate higher still. She was sent off a 5/4F for the Group Two May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last season after two impressive wins (including the Listed Star Stakes) at Sandown but detested the soft ground. It’s safe to say to wants a quicker surface, so I was extremely surprised with how well she stayed on to grab 5th in the 1000 Guineas under a hands and heels ride from Joe Fanning, who looked as if he was going to pull her up at one stage. She has an entry in the Epsom Oaks and at 50/1, I think she rates a lively outside EW bet. She’s bred to get the 1m4f trip, by Cracksman out of a Sir Percy mare who won three times over 1m4f. She’s not the biggest of fillies so I’d imagine the sharp nature of Epsom could be well suited to her and providing she gets quicker ground on the day, she may be a dark horse to go well in the coveted contest.
More Royal Success For Clipper Logistics?
Midnight Affair – Dark Angel x Pastoral Girl (Pastoral Pursuits) – Trainer: Richard Fahey
Sticking with the fillies, I was very taken by how well Midnight Affair finished off her race in the British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket on Friday. George Boughey’s Soprano confirmed the whispers that she was supposedly a very nice type, but she had the perfect run of the race, which anything but can be said for Richard Fahey’s. Danny Tudhope’s mount was last off the bridle, travelling like a dream but the gaps excruciatingly failed to appear at the right time, forcing her to swerve right and angle out for a run down the outside. Nevertheless, she made swift progress and kicked into an impressive gear, but the winner had already flown and Tudhope wasn’t overly hard on her toward the finish. Tudhope and Clipper Logistics took this contest with Dramatised last year, who subsequently won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, so I’d imagine that Royal Ascot will be the aim with this promising filly and she’ll be on my shortlist to do the Queen Mary double for connections.
Weekend Punts
Chester 2:05 – Precision Facades Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Groundbreaker 5/1 2pts (Hills).
Andrew Balding is no stranger to success at this Chester meeting and won this race with Collaboration in 2015. Groundbreaker was a tad disappointing, albeit in tough company, after he won his maiden by four lengths in a first time hood on reappearance last season. He was then five lengths behind Savvy Victory in the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket, but his keen nature in the early parts ruined any chances at the business ends. He meets Savvy Victory on 5lbs better terms now, and Woods’ mount was beaten a rather uninspiring twelve lengths here last year. Groundbreaker steadily improved as the season went on, running a big race behind a trio of Godolphin runners in a competitive handicap at Newbury in a first time tonge-tie. The form of that race has worked out tremendously well, he was ½ a length behind Warren Point in receipt of 4lbs, who won the listed Floodit Stakes at Kempton next time out before further listed success over in Bahrain, with him now rated 110. Two lengths ahead of Groundbreaker was Ottoman Fleet who was subsequently 2nd in the Group 3 Masar Darley Stakes at Newmarket before beating stablemate Royal Fleet five lengths in listed company, with Savvy Victory some twelve lengths behind. Ottoman Fleet placed in a trio of Group 2/3 events over in Meydan in the winter, then took the Group Three Earl Of Sefton Stakes before winning a Grade 2 over in Belmont last week, now rated 15lbs higher than that Newbury 2nd, not to mention the Cambridgeshire winner Majestic was in 6th that day. A bit of a ramble, but it’s a compelling amount of evidence to suggest that Groundbreaker looks well weighted off a mark of 99. The tongue-tie worn that day is retained and the hood is equipped again, and he’s had a gelding operation in the interim which hopefully has removed his coltish tendencies that were hindering his racing ability.
Ascot 2:40- Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) –
Montassib – 14/1 1.5pt EW (Coral).
I had put William Haggas’ son of Exceed and Excel up on my Twitter as a 8/1 fancy for Haydock the last day, but unfortunately he was set an impossible task from where Cieren Fallon had him held up. However, he absolutely rattled home to be beaten under two lengths, unsurprisingly recording the quickest final three furlongs in the race. He massively stepped up from his performance in the Lincoln there, and could well be set to strike. Last season he returned from a whopping 598 day layoff before racking up a cosy double at Wetherby and Goodwood, then going onto finish a 1 1/2L 5th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes over course and distance off only a pound lower than his current mark. William Haggas won the Victoria Cup in 2015, and jocks up Adam Farragher who takes off a handy 3lbs, a combination that has a healthy all time 24% strike rate together as well as a 50% win/place record. The current soft going is likely a factor in his price for now given he looked all at sea on heavy in the Lincoln, but the (discarded since) tongue-tie may also have thrown him off that day. Encountering heavy ground at Doncaster off 189 days isn’t ideal, and given he’s won at Goodwood on soft and placed at Haydock on good-to-soft, I’m not too worried if the ground comes up that way on Saturday.
13:30 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95).
Rhythmic Intent – 1pt EW (3 places) 12/1 (generally).
Several in here are either making there seasonal debut or/and would prefer a quicker surface. With Ascot set to look soft, Rhythmic Intent makes large appeal to me. The son of Lope De Vega returned from a 360 day layoff at Epsom in last month with what can only be described as a tenderly handled ride. With that run now behind him, I can envisage him taking a big step forward down in class and up in trip, in a race double the prize money of last time. Three of his four wins have come on soft ground, as have six of his eight places, so it’s fair to say he’ll handle it more than most. He’s dropped two pounds below his last winning mark now, he carries one off top weigh here but he won by three lengths off top weight (10st) on soft ground at Newbury and off 9”12 at Doncaster. This is the lowest class he’s raced in since that Newbury win in 2020 and the yard’s horses are going well. Danny Tudhope is jocked up for his only other ride of the day outside Fresh for Clipper Logistics, and he has a respectable eight win/places from nineteen runs all time for Stuart Williams.
2:40 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup Heritage Handicap | Class 2 | 4YO plus
Safe Voyage 1pt EW (5 places most firms) 16/1 (generally).
This year’s Victoria Cup consists of a plethora of cliff horses. It took me some serious willpower not to put up Admiral D after his staying on 7th at Newmarket last time out, but I do feel he’ll get caught out on this soft ground over seven furlongs, but is one to keep on track in big pots like this. I think the old boy of the party Safe Voyage will run a massive race. After spending the most part of 2019-2021 in listed/grade company, connections dropped him back to handicap company last season off a lofty mark of 108. He came up short in the Lincoln off that mark, then off 104 at York (beaten 5L) and 100 at Newcastle (beaten 11L). Despite a poor start, he rekindled his spark with a 1L 5th at Goodwood, suggesting he was becoming handicapped accordingly, before confirming that suspicion when a ½L 2nd to I’m A Gambler at Leopardstown, coming from a rather uncompromising position. Safe Voyage runs off that mark after being put up 3lbs, carrying his lowest weight in a handicap since 2018. He was disappointing in the Lincoln but has seemingly (understandably) needed the run in recent years, which was backed up by his staying on 3rd in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, where he ran to an RPR of 104 (highest in the race). Jason Hart jumps back aboard now who has a 25% win rate on him. Eight of his eleven wins on turf have come with soft in the description, and the drop back to a galloping seven furlongs will suit given 11/13 of his win have come over this trip.