Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
Published: 4 pm May 23rd (Odds correct at time of publication)
Two pronged speed attack for Quinn at Royal Ascot
Highfield Princess – Night Of Thunder x Pure Illusion (Danehill) – Trainer: John Quinn.
The opening day of the Dante meeting at York saw a return to action for John Quinn’s admirable mare Highfield Princess, who was just touched off by the progressive Azure Blue. It was a joy to see her retain all ability as a six-year old, and she looked just as good as ever, putting in a 2nd career best in terms of RPR’s. She won this contest last year, however that was her 5th run of the season and she was receiving weight from the field, whereas this time she was making her first start since November when 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, as well as giving away weight to the whole field carrying a group one penalty for the first time. The time was quicker than last years and one can only imagine she’ll improve for that run under her belt. She was collared late on, and while you could put that down to lack of race-fitness, I think she’ll be suited by the drop to five furlongs in the King’s Stand as her pace is her biggest asset. She’s currently a 5/1 shot, which will undoubtedly be shorter on the day, and the 5F division isn’t particularly blessed with stars at the moment , making her a serious prospect for Royal Ascot glory.
Love Wars – Soldier’s Call x Ariena (Arcano) – Trainer: John Quinn.
From an older mare to a younger filly, Love Wars could be another sprinter to taste Royal Success with for the Quinn team. The daughter of first season sire Soldier’s Call overcame greenness in fashionable style at Thirsk on Saturday. Swerving sharply left out of the stalls and falling behind quickly, she was pushed along to remain in touch but evident learnt on the job as she found herself a rhythm and began to travel sweetly, before thundering home under a well-timed ride from Jason Hart. David O’Meara’s speedily-bred Tallulabelle couldn’t quite give the yard a double in the race, having won it with Maria Branwell last year, who was subsequently 3rd in the Queen Mary. No doubt connections will have that race in mind for Love Wars, who is currently a 25/1 shot for it.
A winner in waiting for Nigel Tinkler?
Theme Park – Lope De Vega x Queen’s Prize (Dansili) – Trainer: Nigel Tinkler.
Elsewhere at York, the royally bred Theme Park stepped up on his reappearance for Nigel Tinkler, having his 2nd run for the yard. By Lope De Vega out of a Dansili mare who’s a half-sister to three winners over middle distances, seven furlongs was always going to be short enough for Theme Park, who caught my eye staying on late in the day beaten just two lengths. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute as a two-year old, he finished two lengths behind Godolphin’s Silver Knott on debut who since won two Group Three’s and finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, now rated 115. Theme Park is rated 86 and likely to be dropped a couple pounds for that run, and he’s attractively weighted now on that two-year old form. Once he steps up in trip, providing he gets good ground, he is sure to be winning soon enough.
Ascot Gold Cup tailor-made for Yibir.
Yibir – Dubawi x Rumh (Monsun) – Trainer: Charlie Appleby.
Yibir is a horse I’ve never particularly warmed to on these shores, but his staying on 4th in the Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury on Saturday smacked of him needing further. He’s a big lazy gelding and stamina is his forte. While he’s a Grade 1 winner over 1m4f, that was at the Breeders’ Cup against Broome, who’s since improved for further having won over two miles in Meydan, then was 3rd in the Yorkshire Cup at York on Friday. He’s obviously a horse with plenty of class and has shown a turn of foot, but that change of gear isn’t often seen to best effect over middle distances and the 2m4f trip of the Gold Cup is worth a go. He admittedly doesn’t go well fresh so you could draw a line through that Newbury 4th, but I don’t think he has the combined ability of class and speed to win a top race on home soil over a middle distance trip. His dam won twice over two miles, and I think it’ll bring out the best in him. At 20/1 he’s worth a go, as if he lines up he almost certainly will be a single figure price before the gates open.
Untapped potential lurking in the St James’ Palace?
Mostabshir – Dark Angel x Handassa (Dubawi) – Trainer: John Gosden.
The last day at York saw John Gosden’s Mostabshir rather bolt up by five lengths, giving away a 6lbs penalty to an above average looking field. Five and seven lengths back in 3rd and 4th were Kathab and New Business, who had previously finished in that order behind Passenger, who was arguably unlucky in the Dante on Thursday and will likely be a prominent figure in the Derby finish. Mostabshir wasn’t seen to best effect when still green on sticky ground in the Craven, but duly improved for the quicker conditions at. He was put up 14lbs in the ratings to 108, which almost certainly rules him out of running in the Britannia at Ascot which the Gosden team were considering. Shadwell, nor Gosden, have a likely contender for the St James’ Palace so I’d imagine that they’ll take the plunge straight into Group 1 company. He’ll have 11lbs/10lbs to find on ratings with Chaldean and Royal Scotsman who’ll likely be the protagonists going into the race, but he’s only had the three runs so far and the way in which he won with any ease at York suggests he could be absolutely anything at this stage. He’s from a Shadwell family that the Gosden’s know well, a half-brother to the yards 4x G3 winner Mostahdaf (running well before badly hampered in the ’21 St James Palace) and their G1 Falmouth and Sun Chariot Stakes winning mare Nazeef.
Weekend Punts
York 1:35 – William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80)
The market hasn’t opened in any firm at the time of writing, but I can’t imagine he’ll open much higher than a 7/1 chance. As he is a model of consistency (10 places from 15 starts), and as with most handicaps at York they’ll be 4-5 places on the day, I’ll advise a 2pt EW bet over 5/1 or a 1.5pt win for prices under.
Cast your mind back to the start of the month and you may remember my 2nd pointer for the column was Richard Fahey’s Maywake, who caught the eye staying on well for 3rd under deteriorating conditions at Musselburgh in a SkyBet Sunday Series Handicap. It was a rough race that day which paid to be on the front end, but Maywake was slow out of the gates and never looked too comfortable tucked away in midfield. I noted that may have put him spot on now for another tilt towards the York handicap he won off this mark (albeit with Harry Davies claiming 7lbs) last year, so it’s pleasing to see he’s been entered for the race. While he’ll be without Davies claiming 7lbs this time (Oisin Orr jocked up), he looks ready to strike again off a mark of 80 having ran well twice this season. He was a staying on 3rd to The Cookstown Cafu at Redcar last month who’s won and finished 2nd since, now 8lbs higher than when 1L ahead of Maywake in receipt of 4lbs. As mentioned the other week, I don’t think the hold-up tactics have seen him to best effect, nor has the soft ground. The weather this week in York has been glorious and it looks to continue this weekend, so the quicker ground should see him to better effect. He’s only race once on official G/F ground, but he was beaten a neck by David O’meara’s subsequently 95 rated Improvised, so there’s no reason to think he will be hindered by it.
York 3:15 – William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Voodoo Queen 20/1 0.5pt EW 3 places.
Mimikyu is the current 5/4F for the Bronte Cup, but she looks a favourite worthy of taking on. Gosden’s horses have tended to need the run this year and she was a well beaten 10/3CF in the Galtres Stakes here last season having raced too freely, not to mention she would prefer a bit of give in the ground. Voodoo Queen was had admittedly raced too free early in the Galtres last season, but still finished two lengths ahead of Mimikyu and was keeping on towards the end. I thought she shaped better than the bare result at Goodwood on her first start since September. The run was possibly needed and the soft in the ground may not have seen her to best effect. However, she kept on well enough from the rear and did well to get up for 5th, suggesting a step up in trip is worth exploring. She’s never looked a quick filly even over her 1m2f wins at Newmarket, she’s more of a galloping type and despite her dam being resigned to 6F/7F, there is stayers in her pedigree so it isn’t unreasonable to suggest she may improve for the trip. Roger Varian and Ray Dawson took this last year with Believe In Love so it’s telling that they send this mare in an attempt to do the double, with the Varian yard coming into form.
Haydock 1:50 – Betfred TV Hell Nook Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)
Alright Sunshine 20/1 1pt EW 3 places.
The market suggests that it will be a tough ask for Alright Sunshine to win this off likely top weight, however I think he’s certainly overpriced. Three of his five handicaps wins came when carrying top weight. His record on good to firm ground reads 15234, only beaten over 2L once. His record at Haydock reads 2233, including a 1L 3rd in this race off 3lbs lower last year. He has plenty going for him in terms of conditions, which can’t be said for the majority of the current entries. He’ll have to be better than ever off 101, however he won off 2lbs lower at Ripon last July, beating Godolphin’s Global Heat who subsequently finished 3rd up in class at Newmarket off 1lbs higher, as well as taking a listed content over in Meydan before finishing 6th/5th in a G3/G2 over there. Ten lengths behind that pair at Ripon was Wise Eagle off a mark of 86, who is now rated 107 following his 2nd in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot earlier this month. While Alright Sunshine has to prove his worth, that piece of form suggests he is capable of winning off this mark and he did record a career best RPR of 107 that day. He’s gone well fresh in the past and Keith Dalgleish has his string in fine form recently.
Haydock 2:25 – Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo)
Bodorgan 14/1 EW 0.5pt EW 4 places.
Bodorgan has an entry at York on Saturday, however with the prize money for this handicap worth considerably more than the one at York, I presume he’ll take up his entry here. Also, Paul Hanagan is already jocked up whereas he is without one for York. Paul Hanagan has won this contest a record four time (3 different trainers), and is the fourth all-time leading jockey at Haydock. Charles Hill is one to follow at Haydock too, with his record reading 213-38-42 (17.84%SR – £30.00 to £1 stake) and he is 1-1 here this season. Stats aside, Bodorgan could be seriously well handicapped of a mark of 87. He improved for the experience on debut when not knocked around by finishing a close staying on 3rd at Newmarket. He finished in front of the now 111r Derby favourite Military Order, and behind the 96r listed placed Arabian Storm. The winner Enfjaar runs at Chelmsford on Thursday, so it’ll be interesting to see what Roger Varian has on his hands there. Back to Bodorgan, he hit a flat spot over the same C&D nto, but got better as the race went on and strode away in fashionable style under hand and heels from Ryan Moore, with three winners coming out of the race since. Those starts were on good to soft ground and he’ll encounter quicker here, but he has a low action and is bred to enjoy conditions as he is by El Kabeir out of an unraced Dark Angel mare who is a full-sister to a four time winner on fast ground at Meydan. It remains to be seen how he’s transitioned from two to three but he has plenty size about him and he wasn’t seen until later on last year suggesting he wasn’t the type to come to hand early, so I’ve no qualms regarding that. Charles Hills can get them ready first time out and is in fine fettle so far this season.
Haydock 3:15 – British Stallion Studs Cecil Frail (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Get Ahead 9/2 2pt WIN (Hills)
Soft ground scuppered the chances of Get Ahead for the column two weeks ago, but she still ran
creditable in what was a strong Group 3 Howden Palace Stakes. 13/14 horses there were rated
101-111, now she drops back into listed (and fillies/mares) company as the 2 nd top rated, just 4lbs
below Gale Force Maya but getting 3lbs from her, who ran very below par last time out. Outside
of them two, the field are rated 85-99, and I think Get Ahead can rate some way higher yet than
her current rating of 100. The form of her staying on 3 rd in the Lansdown Stakes at Bath on
reappearance has been boosted by Perdika who was a length ahead of her in receipt of 7lbs,
that one finished 1 1/4L behind Azure Blue who subsequently followed up in the Duke Of York
Stakes, beating Highfield Princess. Perdika was then behind White Lavender in a Group 3 over
in France, who was 3L behind Get Ahead at Bath. Nympahdora (5L behind) has also come out
and won cosily off a mark of 97 (110RPR). Get Ahead steps up to 6F here which on her two runs
thus far this season, look as if it should suit. More importantly though, she will get quicker
ground. She won on GF at Goodwood (career best 106RPR) and she was barely given a
squeeze that day. It could well be she is a classier filly on a quick surface and I’m hopeful she
can prove her true worth with Richard Kingscote taking over.
Haydock 3:30 – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
For those who have followed me on the bird app over the last year or so, you’ll know how much I
think of James Tate’s filly. I was disappointed with her run in the Nunthorpe, but similar to
Marshamn last week she was drawn on the worst part of the ground and could never really land a
blow on the winners. She still ran with credit there and travelled well within herself, but Atzeni
wasn’t overly hard on her once he knew the chance had gone. She was then sent to the Group 3 Prix
Du Petit Couvert at Longchamp and finished a 2L 3 rd , but soft ground was to blame there. However,
the 2 nd was only beaten 1/2L in the G1 Abbaye next time out to The Platinum Queen and won a
Group Three with Vadream in behind last time out, so while she didn’t have her conditions, the form
was given a nice boost. She returns now as a four year old and in a recent stable tour, Tate has noted
how she’s strengthened up and he’s still hopeful she can be a group one filly. The Platinum Queen
currently heads the market for the Temple Stakes and Royal Aclaim has three lengths to find with
her on their Nunthorpe encounter, however she meets her on a whopping 19lbs better terms from
that day. The Platinum Queen will have to buck the trend that only two three year olds have won the
race in the last 18 years, and the last 13 winners were all drawn 6 or lower. Royal Aclaim is drawn in
5 which bodes well for the trends, and gets her favoured quick ground, so firstly conditions will suit
better than they did the last twice. Prior to that, she was a perfect 3/3 and I’m hopeful she can
revert to that earlier promise. Neil Callan is 1-1 on her and takes the ride, and when teaming up with
James Tate this year they are an exceptional 13-7-3.
York 2:40 – William Hill Epic Boost Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
Zarzyni caught my eye in the Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap at Musselburgh when a staying on 5 th
behind the handicap blot of Silky Wilkie. It paid to be up with the van at Musselburgh that day, but
Zarzyni made the most of a poor break and in running trouble. This time last year he was a 1 1/4L 4 TH
behind Khaadem in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes rated 104. While he placed off that mark in a
Heritage Handicap at Ascot, he was probably too high in the weights and tricky to place in some top
C2 handicaps. He’s now 8lbs lower and signalled a return to form lto, and is drawn well in 13 where
the majority of last weeks action unfolded. With Fine Wine in here, it’s likely to be a strongly run
contest if the field want to keep up with Scott Dixon’s gung-ho sprinter, meaning Zarzyni will get a
lovely toe into the contest. Jason Hart is jocked up and he is 1-1 on the gelding, and the quicker
ground should play to his strengths.
Notable amendments since publication:
Alright Sunshine not declared.
Maywake – First time cheekpiece.
Voodoo Queen – Andrea Atzeni replaces Oisin Orr.
Bodorgan – Hollie Doyle replaces Paul Hanagan.
Royal Ascot Antepost pointers
Wonder Legend – King George
Royal Scotsman – 4/1 St James’ Palace
Midnight Affair – 10/1 Queen Mary
Natural Force – 12/1 Windsor Castle
Ferrari Queen – Ribblesdale
Point Lonsdale – Hardwicke
Highfield Princess – 5/1 Kings Stand
Love Wars – 25/1 Queen Mary
Yibir – 20/1 Gold Cup
Mostabshir – 12/1 St James’ Palace