Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action including the Derby!
Published: 5 pm May 31st (Odds correct at time of publication)
Pointers
Law Of The Sea – Golden Horn x Leaderene (Selkirk) – Trainer: Ian Williams.
Law Of The Sea shaped like a progressive young horse when with the Gosden’s in 2021. He was sent off 4/1 for the Chester Vase that year which suggests they had Derby admiration’s with him, but after he was beaten 39L (soft ground/coughing to blame), he never really rediscovered that early promise for the Gosden’s, nor for Buphat Seemar in Meydan. However it appears as though his new handler has found the key to unlocking that bundle of natural ability. He was an excellent staying on 4th behind Metier in the Chester Cup and backed that up on Saturday with a similar performance when 2nd to Solent Getaway in the Neil Hook handicap at Haydock. Backers of him may have felt hard done by for not grabbing the victory, but it was a pleasing performance nonetheless especially given how different conditions were to Chester last time. He appears to be at home over two miles and he holds an entry in the Northumberland Plate in July, he will likely be put up a couple pounds for that performance which should ensure he’s no issue getting into the race. I think he rates a small EW bet for the contest which he’s around a 20/1 shot for.
Mitbaahy – Profitable x Wrood (Invasor) – Trainer: Roger Varian.
Dramatised was an assured winner of the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock last Saturday, and she may be a tough filly to crack at the top level this year. However, come 3:35, the near side was the favourable place to race on the track. The watering at Haydock has been somewhat of a controversially discussed topic over the weekend, and it had arguably affected the outcome of some of the races. The first three in the Temple Stakes all raced near side and finished nicely clear of the others in the context of a tight-knit 5F sprint. Mitbaahy was the one who caught my eye however. Drawn in 3, he was held up in rear in the centre of the course which was arguably the worst part of the track to ride on, but made swift headway to the far-side and finished with a flurry to get up for 5th, doing the best of those who raced central/far-side. Roger Varian’s string has yet to hit top gear but the recent signs suggest they’re coming into form. That was his first run of the season, and he shaped as if he will come on for it. He strikes me as a sprinter who will improve as he gets older which his sire Profitable did, given he went from an 83 rated handicapper to a King’s Stand winner at four. Mitbaahy is currently a 66/1 shot in places for the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and I do feel that underestimates his ability, especially given he beat Manaccan last September who’s a 12/1 shot.
Shining Blue – Exceed and Excel x Braided (Elusive Quality) – Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor.
This big son of Exceed and Excel is not without his quirks, but he was as good as ever when running away off top weight at York last Saturday. He was gelded as a 4yo and didn’t make his racecourse debut until later that year, suggesting he was worth keeping in training but tricky to get right. Perseverance paid off though, as he racked up a hat-trick off wins in just over a month. He looked to be a gelding going places, however his form halted dramatically in four subsequent runs, finishing last in two of them. A change of scenery over in Meydan sparked life back into him earlier this year, with a win off 97 before finishing 3/4L behind the 111r Modern News and 3L behind behind Danyah who subsequently won the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint. He continued his good form at York in fashionable style, he could hardly have been more impressive and not many horses win off top-weight around York, let alone by 4L eased down. He’s been put up 6lbs for that win to 109 but he did record an impressive RPR of 116, which would suggest he does possess the natural ability to be a Group horse. However he has an entry in the Royal Hunt cup, a race that Saeed Bin Suroor won in 2010 and 2021. With a mark of 109, there’s a good chance he’ll be racing off top-weight which he’ll have to be better than ever to defy – and it may be wiser to test the waters of group company – but he’s proved he can carry such a weight and if he does turn up then I’m hopeful he’ll have as good a chance as any, currently standing at 16/1.
Run To Freedom – Muharaar x Twilight Mistress (Bin Ajwaad) – Trainer: Henry Candy.
My performance of the week was from the bang in form Henry Candy yard and his improving 5 year old Run To Freedom. He broke the 6F track record at Salisbury when winning the Listed Cathedral Stakes in an blistering time of 1m 11.31s. Though he only won by a head, it was cosier than it looked and Trevor Whelan never gave him a slap. He travelled well on the rail and found a lovely gap when pulled out for a run, picking up within an instant to power home. Everything about his performance simply oozed class, and he looks to be a sprinter firmly on the up. He was only beaten three lengths by Naval Crown in the Group 1 Platinum Jubilee last year when rated 103. He’s now rated 10lbs higher, and 5lbs below the top rated runner in the current entries for the same race, now named the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot. I had to blink twice when I saw he still stands at odds of 33/1, which massively underestimates his progressive nature and current ability. He’s by Commonwealth Cup winner Muharaar and a half-brother to Twilight Son who won this race in 2016 for Henry Candy when named the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. He was 4th in the Group Three Bengough Stakes then 2nd to Kinross on Champions Day in the 6F Sprint Stakes, so his C&D form is already impressive enough. His pedigree backs up the fact he’s improving with age and he shaped as if he had plenty under the bonnet lto. With all that in mind, he is currently my Royal Ascot NAP at 33/1.
Punts
Epsom 2:00 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)
Land Lover 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
The popular colours of Nick Bradley struck gold in this race with Oscula in 2021 and he has three declared at this stage. I’m siding with Craig Lidster’s, who has some exciting two-year old’s coming through his yard and Land Lover will be his first ever runner at Epsom. I was there at York when he made his debut in a very hot race. Kevin Ryan’s Mon Na Slieve won like a smart horse and he was very complimentary about him after the race, saying that Royal Ascot was what he was bought for. Mashadi in 2nd filled the same spot since, running to the same level, and Burke’s Kylian was somewhat of a talking but despite travelling well, couldn’t quite reach the leaders. Land Lover was outpaced over the 5F and shaped as if he will be all the better for the experience, but stayed on quite well to grab 4th, looking as if 6F will suit to a tee. The booking of excellent French jockey Cristian Demuro is an eye-catching one for the up and coming Lidster team, and the son of Land Force receives 5lbs from the majority of the field.
Epsom 2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Austrian Theory 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
Austrian Theory has slipped 4lbs below his last winning mark which came over a mile at Hamilton on good-to-firm ground june. He was below par on his first two starts this season, but he’s 0-2 on the AW and the soft ground at Thirsk wouldn’t have suited him. He offered much more at Chester last weekend, finishing 3rd when drawn the 2nd widest stall. It took him a while to get going last season, now he goes back up in trip now and gets his favourable ground, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him bounce back in typical Johnston fashion, who took this race in 2009 and 2010.
Epsom 3:45 – Betfred Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
The City’s Phantom 33/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The City’s Phantom was a quietly confident outsider bet for the column at Newmarket at the start of the month, but the softened turf completely scuppered his chances. I thought he travelled up well enough there, but he simply didn’t handle the going and failed to kick on at the business end. The quick ground forecast should see him in a much better light now as his three wins have come on good-to-firm. He wasn’t entirely disgraced in this contest last year and he’s 9lbs below that now as well as being back on his last winning mark. He receives a whopping 23lbs from the top weight, and he has an 18lbs weight swing with Bad Company who he was three lengths behind in this last year. The pace doesn’t look like it will be a strong one which will suit his front running manner. Richard Spencer’s horses are running well enough without winning, and Kieran O’Neil takes the ride who is 2-1-0 for the yard in the last 12 months.
12:50 Epsom – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Marie’s Diamond – 33/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
When looking at this field, there is hardly one in here that screams progressive. The Godolphin favourite Highland Avenue might well be too classy, but he offers no value at 13/8 and is winless since 2021. Kolsai is short enough at 3s for a horse who was beaten 5L lto, and his other form has yet to receive any sort of boosts, he’ll have to prove his worth against his elders. Al Mubhir is perhaps vulnerable outside of handicap company and was a beaten 13/8 favourite in a Group 3 last time out. Reach For The Moon has been bitterly disappointing for the Gosden’s, four times a beaten favourite and his keenness remains a problem. Regal Reality was beaten 14L behind Highland Avenue last time out and was only 3/4L in front of Marie’s Diamond when they last met. Escobar was only a length behind Al Mubhir last time out, and Imperial Fighter has finished last in both his starts this season, trumped a combined 35 lengths. With that in mind, the tough as boots Marie’s Diamond has to be considered despite being the outsider of the whole field. He was vulnerable to an improver last season but was still competitive in black type contests, and his 2nd at York behind the well handicapped Marhaba The Champ, who was a winner for the column, was his best run for a while suggesting he’s in the process of bouncing back to form. It’s obviously a risky and somewhat contradictory selection given he hasn’t won since 2021, but he’s likely to have the run of the race up front and I wouldn’t want any other horse in this race to be battling out a finish.
1:30 Epsom – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
White Birch 12/1 0.5pt EW + Artistic Star 33/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The Derby picture has been a muddling puzzle for some time, and even at this stage, I don’t think anyone is that close to piecing it together. It’s a wide open contest as per usual, but nothing sticks out like a sore thumb. The talk of the triple crown for Auguste Rodin was swiftly hushed after he bombed out in the 1000 Guineas. The master trainer has been quick to dismiss that was his true running and still maintains the utmost faith in his Vertem Futurity winner, but I don’t think his overall form is anywhere near good enough to warrant favouritism. There was only 1L 1/4L between Military Order and Waipiro at Lingfield, but I think the former may prefer a bit of dig in the ground while the latter was arguably flattered by the proximity, and certainly wasn’t closing at the line. I thought Arrest’s win in the Chester Vase was certainly flattering, and he only beat Adelaide River the same amount of lengths as he did in the Criterium over in Saint-Cloud last year, not to mention the last horse to do the Vase-Derby double was Ruler Of The World in 2013. Sprewell has been resigned to soft/heavy ground so far in his career and while he is open to any amount of progression, I’d be concerned about parting my money with him on this quicker surface.
The Foxes, White Birch and Passenger crossed the line in that order in the Dante, and the latter has been supplemented for the Derby for 85k. I don’t think he would’ve won the race even with a clear run, and around Epsom you cannot afford to have any hard luck stories. White Birch was a bet for the column, and I am hopeful he can turn the form around with The Foxes. He was closing on him with every step, but the post didn’t come quick enough. The Derby is often run at a fast clip with many jockey’s throwing calmness out of the equation in the heat of the occasion, and the quicker the gallop the better for White Birch. I was a tad concerned he mightn’t handle the quick going in the Dante but he proved his ability to do so. He’s a well-balanced colt with a smart turn of foot and I think he possesses all the attributes of a Derby winner.
The other is the completely unexposed Artistic Star, who is the only unbeaten runner in the field. By Derby hero Galileo (sired 5 Derby winners himself) out of a Group 1 winning Fastnet Rock mare, he adopts a perfect blend of speed and stamina. He won his maiden impressively, only marginally slower than when St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov took the same contest last year on quicker ground carrying 2lbs less. He wasn’t seen again until two weeks ago when convincingly beating the well-bred Torito from the Gosden yard. The pair pulled some seven lengths clear from the 3rd and Artistic Star only really got going in the final furlong, which bodes well for the Derby trip. Interestingly, they had planned on going to the Lingfield Derby trial before it changed to the AW, so he’s evidently well thought of. After Westover’s arguably unlucky 3rd in last year’s Derby, Ralph Beckett will be keen to make amends so it’s telling that they send this colt here in an attempt to seek redemption on the Epsom turf. He’s a full brother to Jessie Harrington’s Forebearance who’s three turf wins came on good-good/firm ground, so there’s a possibility he may improve for the quicker ground. He is the 2nd lowest rated in the field, and there’s every chance this race could come quick enough, but he’s likely to have come on for that run lto and he looks a seriously promising middle distance type for Ralph Beckett and Jeff Smith.
2:45 Epsom – Epsom Aston Martin 3YO “Dash'” Handicap (5f)
Grace Angel 12/1 1pt EW 4 places.
The daughter of Harry Angel was given a solo ride on the far side at Redcar in a 0-90 last time out and she could hardly have been any more impressive. She travelled on the bridle all the way until the one pole, where she kicked into another gear and quickly put the race to bed. She beat the 2nd 2 3/4L and the 90r 3rd was 7 1/2L behind, so a 6lbs rise seems fairly lenient. That was her 3rd run of the season having been beaten 10L at Newmarket and 4L at York, so it’s pleasing to see her bounce back to form as she was very consistent last season finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd in all but one (debut) of her 11 races. The win lto was her first win on turf from seven attempts, so she may have more to give on grass now. She beat Radio Goo Goo as a 2yo by 3 1/4L in receipt of just 1lbs, who’s now rated 14lbs higher having won four races this season, so there’s every chance her current mark still underestimates her. Jason Watson keeps the ride and his record on her now reads 5131, and she’ll have no problem taking on the boys once more.
Royal Ascot Antepost pointers
Wonder Legend – King George V Stakes
Royal Scotsman – 4/1 St James’ Palace
Midnight Affair – 10/1 Queen Mary
Natural Force – 12/1 Windsor Castle
Ferrari Queen – Ribblesdale
Point Lonsdale – Hardwicke
Highfield Princess – 5/1 Kings Stand
Love Wars – 25/1 Queen Mary EW
Yibir – 20/1 Gold Cup EW
Mostabshir – 12/1 St James’ Palace
Mitbaahy – King’s Stand 66/1 EW
Shining Blue – 16/1
Run To Freedom – 33/1 QEII NAP