Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of Saturday’s action.
Published: 12 pm May 16 (Odds correct at time of publication)
1:50 Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
Real Dream – 5/1 (1pt WIN)& Thundering 11/1 (0.5pt EW, 5 places most firms)
The meeting kicks off with an ever-competitive handicap and I’ve had my eye on the unexposed Real Dream for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore since entries were made. Backing a favourite in a handicap of this nature is against my morals, and the draw could undoubtedly have been kinder, but after both a gelding and a wind operation, Real Dream returned to action from a 325 day layoff with a comfortable success at Kempton suggesting there’s plenty more to come from him. Similar to his victory at Doncaster, it took him a while to wind up before kicking into top gear, and the long straight at York could suit that style of racing. He’s been put up five pounds from that handicap debut but he strikes me as one way ahead of his mark. Three of the four ahead of him at Lingfield last May are all rated 91 now and his dam was rated 109 in her peak. This race has conjured up some smart performers in recent years who were beyond their handicap marks, and Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore took the contest in both 2013 and 2014.
Six of the last nine winners of the contest were all favourites which bodes well for Real Dream at this stage, however Thundering makes large each way appeal at 11s. I was at Ripon the last day and had backed him which proved to be a disappointment, but he shaped as if needing the run and wasn’t really persevered with once the chance had gone. He’s been dropped a pound for that and should strip fitter. He’s winless on turf, but has bumped into some nice types along the way including being beaten a length by Real Dream at Doncaster last June. That was off levels and now receives a pound from him so he’s entitled to reverse that form, while perhaps not possessing as much potential as Stoute’s. He was also beaten two lengths by Savvy Victory on his 2nd racecourse start whos developed into a smart 104r performer, but crucially he has some course form as when beaten 3/4L by Farhan over C&D on the Ebor card last year, who latterly finished 2nd in a strong Group Three at Newbury last month. Kevin Ryan saddled Forza Orta to finish 2nd behind the well-handicapped Gaasee in this contest last month, and I’d be hopeful of Thundering putting his reappearance at Ripon behind him and similarly running a nice race back on better ground.
2:25 Churchill Tyres Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Silver Samurai 16/1 (0.5pt EW, 5 places most firms)
Another competitive handicap up next with plenty of popular names declared. Silver Samurai is one who tends to need a couple of runs before putting his hooves first past the post (won 3rd time up in ’19, 2nd run in ’20, 5th run in ’21, 4th in ’22) and wasn’t disgraced when beaten a 5L 9th in a competitive Howden Handicap at Newmarket last time out. His best form on turf has come on ground with good in the description (4/5 wins, 6/6 places) so perhaps he can be forgiven as it was soft enough the last day. His course form is rock solid, reading 2733 with the 7th only beaten 2 ½ L. Dakota Gold will likely prove popular with punters given he won this race last year, but was ¾ a length behind Silver Samurai in the Sprint Trophy here last October and is 4lbs worse off. William Buick takes the ride on him for the first time since winning on him around this time last year at Newbury, and has a 100% w/p rate on the grey. He’s likely to get a strong pace to aim at and two winners of this race have come from stall 5 in the last nine runnings.
3:00 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Marshman 13/2 (1.5pt EW 3 places)
Karl Burke’s exciting son of Harry Angel will have to prove his worth against his elders, but there’s every reason to believe he is classy enough to do so. The last time a 3yo won this race was in 1999, but in the last ten years only two 3yos have ran in it and they both placed 2nd. In truth, that stat is the sole reason for me going each way, or he’d be quite a confident straight win. Highfield Princess is obviously the class angle in the field, however this will be her first time giving weight away all-round in group company, and her record fresh reads 83314, with her win only coming from 50 days off. I do think she will have to record a career best to give 11lbs to Marshman, who is only rated 6lbs lower than her, meaning she effectively has 5lbs to find with ours who’s had the benefit of a run. That run came on softer ground than ideal over in Chantilly, but it was a convincing win beating Aidan O’Brien’s Wodao by the best part of 2L. Marshman won his first two starts last season, including an electric 8L success at Thirsk before bumping into the smart Noble Style in the Gimcrack at the Ebor meeting. He threw that race away after hanging both ways inside the final furlong, perhaps hitting the front too early and his immaturity getting the better of him. However, that form has still worked out tremendously well. Noble Style was 6th in the 1000 Guineas, faring the best of those speedily bred, Cold Case was four lengths behind him and is unbeaten in three starts since, including the two-year old trophy at Redcar and the G3 Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot. In 5th and 6th were Royal Scotsman and Galeron, who finished ahead of Noble Style in 3rd and 4th in the 2000 Guineas. The only spanner in the works in this field is Creative Force, who I had hoped wouldn’t be declared after only winning at Haydock on Saturday. Similar thoughts apply however, as he is rated 4lbs higher than Marshman but has to give him 9lbs, so is also 5lbs worse off on official ratings. In truth, I do think Marshman is a seriously talented colt who looked more mature over in Chantilly than he had done last season, and if that runs brought him on once more then he could stake some serious stopping especially back on quicker ground for the in-form Karl Burke.
3:35 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)
Empress Wu 16/1 (0.5pt EW 3 places)
Sir Michael Stoute’s filly Infinite Cosmos is very short at the top of the market for what she’s achieved so far. These fillies are all unexposed and are each open to any amount of improvement. Empress Wu makes appeal to me for David Simcock and Kirsten Rausing, who saddled the winner of this race in 2014 with Madame Chiang, whose dam Robe Chinoise is a half sister to Chinoseries, the dam of Empress Wu. Presumably connections think Empress Wu is just as classy enough to take this contest as Madame Chiang was seven years ago. I watched her debut back at Lingfield and it was ridiculously impressive, she broke slowly away and was dropped in, before finishing with a wet sail down the outside to win going away in the manner of a smart filly. In 2nd there was Silver Sword who’s won for Dylan Cunha since (85rpr), and while that piece of form isn’t necessarily worth noting in the context of a Musidora, Silver Sword was previously 5th at Newmarket, four lengths behind Derby protagonist Military Order. The yard form is questionable but Jim Crowley retains the ride and has an impressive all-time record (280-61-63) for David Simcock – backing everyone one of their rides together to a £1 stake would see you £57.32 up. Crowley has a similar profit margin of £56.02 when riding in the colours of Kirsten Rausing – a record of 54-14-12.
Thursday
1:50 – Lindum York Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Clarendon House 14/1 (0.5pt EW 4 places generally)
My initial fancy for this race was Equilateral (who’s unfortunately not been declared) on the basis that he’s a group horse in a handicap. Clarendon House was a length ahead of Acklam Express giving him 3lbs in a C2 conditions race at Beverley when last seen. Acklam Express has since finished three lengths and two lengths ahead of Equilateral in listed and G2 company in Meydan this year off levels. So on that formline it was hard to ignore Clarendon House who I do think is nicely treated off 102. He won fresh on debut by four lengths and he was 2nd to Raasel on reappearance last season, giving him 5lbs for a head defeat, who’s now rated 10lbs higher, with Clarendon House only 3lbs higher. His record in handicap company on good ground or better reads 2112, the latter pair coming off top weight so his lofty mark shouldn’t be an issue. Robert Cowell admittedly could be in better form and his record at York isn’t great either, but the booking of Daniel Muscutt pleases me who’s 7 win/place from 16 all time for them. At 14/1, he looks overpriced with ideal conditions and a class edge over the majority.
3:00 – Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
Cruyff Turn 8/1 (1pt EW 5 places most firms)
Cruyff Turn is a pound lower than he was when gamely winning this contest last year, and no doubt this will have been the plan for connections. That took his C&D record to 2-2, but it was blemished in two starts here after, however he was drawn wide in both those failing to get a prominent pitch early on, and the writing on the wall was immediate. He’s drawn in stall 3 now so the plan will be to break well and grab the rail early. If so, unless there’s a complete handicap blot lurking in here then I think he’ll be hard to pass up front, as was the case last year. Top weight on soft ground at Thirsk on reappearance will hardly have been his target, presumably why he was held up toward the rear, but that should’ve put him spot on for another tilt at this with the better ground to suit.
3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo)
White Birch 10/1 0.5pt EW (3 places most firms)
This year’s Dante is a seriously muddling affair, with several of the runners already having encountered each other. The unbeaten likes of Passenger, Canberra Legend and Continuous all bring any amount of potential to the table and are all feared the same. I’m willing to take a plunge on White Birch who is brought over by John Murphy for just his 2nd runner at the track. The son of Ulysses came on for his debut as a two-year old when a five length winner at Dundalk, hitting the line strongly and looking like a step up trip will suit in time. He confirmed that suspicion when a last-to-first winner of the coveted Group three Ballysax stakes at Leopardstown last month on heavy ground. He gamely beat Up and Under there, who was subsequently 2nd to Sprewell who is prominent in the Derby betting. That is up there with, if not the best piece of three-year old form on offer here and I think he’ll be slightly overlooked due to less familiar connections. Judging by pedigree he should have no issues on the quicker ground here and the flat, galloping track at York should suit him going off his dour win at Leopardstown.
Friday
1:50 – Clipper EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (IRE Incentive Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
Beenham 10/1 0.5pt EW (3 places most firms)
Persian Dreamer looked very useful when running away with a Newmarket Maiden on debut and she may well prove to be a class above these fillies for Amo Racing, but I thought Rod Millman’s Beenham’s effort was just as taking at Goodwood. The Havana Grey filly was unsold for £12,500 as a foal but later went for 30,000gns to connections. She was an eyecatcher on debut behind a potentially smart one in Juniper Berries for Eve Houghton who’s a dab-hand with her two-year olds, and she delivered on that promise when easily beating another well-touted one of Houghton’s. Beenham improved for prominent tactics that day and she had them all off the bridl before quickening up smartly and putting the race to bed. That form was given a timely boost at Bath on yesterday when the 3rd horse Haatem bolted in by six lengths at Bath. Beenham’s race was won by Rocket Rodney last year who was subsequently 2nd in the Windsor Castle before holding his form at the top level, and Canonized also won the race in 2021 (slower than Beenham’s time despite quicker ground) who was subsequently 2nd in the Marygate. As said, Persian Dreamer could be a very classy individual but Millman’s filly will no doubt be overlooked, with William Buick a rare booking for the yard.
3:00 – Knights Solicitors Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)
Marhaba The Champ 18/1 0.5pt EW (3 places)
Another for Buick, who’s profitable to follow when riding for Kevin Ryan (£27+ to £1). The yard had a successful day at York on Wednesday with two wins and two places, and I’m hoping the well-bred Marhaba The Champ can continue the good form. It’s somewhat of a chancy punt given we haven’t seen him since tailing off at Nottingham in October, however he’s had a 2nd wind operation in the interim and I’d presume his wind was to blame for that poor performance. If this colt can put it all together, I think he could be a lovely type. Four-year olds have won nine of the last seventeen running’s of this contest and he’s lightly raced for his age. He ran an absolute stormer at Ripon when carried across the full track on the home turn, yet still finished just one length behind the eventual winner. He defied a drift in the market to win cosily by 2 1/2L Hamilton next time (96 RPR) out beating a subsequent winner, and if he returns back to his progressive ways then he must have a chance of going close at a nice price.