The 5f Nunthorpe Stakes is the only Group 1 open to all ages, with the potential for two-year-olds to compete against older horses making it unique in British racing. It is a thrilling speed ride to witness and with 17 runners declared, it will surely be fiercely competitive. GG tipster Joe Napier runs his eye over the field to give his verdict.
Favourites
It has been 18 years since Kingsgate Native won this as a two-year-old, and he was the first in 15 years to do it himself. All told, he and Lyric Fantasy are the only juveniles to win the Nunthorpe Stakes since 1957, so the weight of history appears to be against Lady Iman.
Then again, Ger Lyons’ filly has packed a punch in her two-year-old contests, convincingly landing the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes under a 3lb penalty at Glorious Goodwood. She has twice won at that level and could well hold her own, but the featherweight required to ride her ensures Ryan Moore must desert and it remains to be seen if Joe Fanning can prove an able deputy.
Things should be more straightforward for the three-year-old Arizona Blaze. A raider for Ireland, he is two from two over 5-5½f this season, impressing at the Curragh in Group 2 company last time. The issue will not in how he is ridden, as David Egan will go forward, but so will plenty around him.
For Oisin Murphy, who rides Australian mare and recent British standing order Asfoora, the goal will be to utilise a plum draw, not only in terms of being on the right side of the track, but also in being funnelled directly behind plenty of front-runners. The quicker going here compared to at Goodwood, where she was underwhelming, should help, although both runs on these shores this season have been below her best from 2024.
Meanwhile, Lady Iman’s loss is Sayidah Dariyan’s gain, with Ryan Moore called up aboard Richard Hughes’ filly. She was beaten on the Dundalk all-weather in her only 5f start in her career, but has improved tremendously this season, winning over 6f at this track with something to spare last month. If she can adapt back down in trip, she is in the mix.
Contenders
Very much a bridesmaid this term, She’s Quality arrives on the back of four successive seconds, a pair each in Group 3 and Group 2 company. She has only narrowly failed behind all of Mgheera, Rumstar and Jm Jungle this season, but it is difficult to call her the winner opposing all of those, as well as others, back up in Group 1 company.
Of those aforementioned trio, Jm Jungle is another to have taken a big leap forward this term when landing the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood. He was perfectly drawn, but has also run well at York on numerous occasions, though stall 13 might make life difficult for Jason Hart.
Rumstar is drawn alongside him in 14; twice a Group 3 winner this term, it is notable that he has been no better than fifth when upped in class and again the draw is against him. That is not the case for Mgheera, who could get a perfect tow into this race from stall 7. She has been sloppy from the break the last twice, but has two wins this season, with a verdict over a number of these rivals in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. She is very dangerous.
Others for whom a small gamble would land them among the favourites category are Night Raider, who came well clear of his group down the stands rail at Goodwood and retains the potential to be a tearaway 5f sprinter, another two-year-old in Spicy Marg, herself a comfortable Goodwood winner albeit thrown in at the deep end here, and Washington Heights, sixth last season and a winner of a course and distance Group 3 that is working out well on his previous outing. The amount of pace in the race is a slight negative for Night Raider, while stall 17 is an even bigger cross to bear for Washington Heights.
Outsiders
All of Kerdos, Spartan Arrow and Celandine probably needed more luck with their draws (12, 15 and 16 respectively). The last-named may have the best chance of overcoming it as her juvenile Group 2 win here last term reads well, but Ed Walker probably has a better chance with Mgheera.
Ain’t Nobody has shown little since his Royal Ascot win as a two-year-old and it is possible punters are better catching him fresh. The drop to 5f does not look an overwhelming positive, though Manaccan is at least intriguing again at massive odds after running much better back in a handicap last time out. His draw would give him a fighting chance of picking up some pieces.
Frost At Dawn is probably the best of those at bigger odds though. She was second in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot when almost making all down the stands side and the return to good-to-firm going is a plus compared to her fourth at Goodwood to Jm Jungle. The competition for the early lead may just be too much for her, but she is respected.
Verdict
There is always the air of the unpredictable in Group 1 sprints, with even more factored in due to the field size of 17 here. Preference overall is for MGHEERA, a two-time Group race winner this season for whom the race could set up perfectly from stall 7, which neighbours the berths of three different front runners. As long as she does not take too many liberties at the start, Ed Walker’s mare can turn the tables on Arizona Blaze, one of those pace angles, who could be drawn into too much of a battle for the lead. He is nevertheless second choice, ahead of Asfoora, who was fourth as favourite a year ago and who will also enjoy conditions, though is perhaps slightly below her best 2024 form. All of Frost At Dawn, Lady Iman, Night Raider and Sayidah Dariyan command the utmost respect too.
- Mgheera
- Arizona Blaze
- Asfoora
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.