The Nunthorpe stakes is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge which means the winner earns an automatic invitation to the same year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint! It’s also only one of a limited number of races where 2yos can race against their elders so we see this race attract the best sprinters around.
I’ve looked at every running this century and the last 10 renewals to try and figure out what it takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Age isn’t a huge factor, but 6-year-olds and 8-year-olds have the worst strike-rate
- Likely to be a single-figure price but probably NOT the favourite
- Preference to those drawn in the BOTTOM half of the field
- Should be 110 rated or higher and respect those with OR of 115+
- Should have at placed last time out, raced at 5f and probably in the last 6 weeks
- Should have at least raced at York but preferably won here
- Likely to have 10 or more runs at 5f and 5 or more wins at the trip too
- At least 2 runs this season and should have won once or twice
- Should have won a Group Race in their career
Focused Trends
AGE
- 2yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 3yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 4yo – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7 and 9-year-olds have the highest strike-rate this century at 13% and 14% respectively and both are showing positive ROI’s. 3 and 4-year-olds also show a positive ROI if backing blind and while 5 and 6-year-olds are losing about the same amount this century, it’s 6-year-olds who have the worst strike-rate of any age that has landed this race (8yo’s included for completeness).
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Single-figures – 17/24 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
This century, favourites are not profitable to back blind however third favourites are and show around a 20% ROI. Most winners this century were single figure SP’s however those priced shorter than 5/2 have been expensive to follow blind.
In the last decade, favourites are again not profitable to back blind and it’s second and third favourites who show a profit blind and the best strike-rates.
DRAW – (Removed the 2008 running which was held at Newmarket)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners will come from the bottom half of the draw but 40% of the winners this century and I the last decade have come from the lowest 4 raced in stalls. That isn’t profitable to back blind across either period as draw seems to be more than factored into the market prices. Getting on early prices post draw could be different but I don’t have the data to advise on that.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners held an OR of 110 or higher and ALL of the 8 winners from the last 10 above this figure held an OR of 112 or more.
Horses with an OR of 115 or more account for 40% of winners across both periods but that alone is not profitable to back blind. If you were to back ALL runners with an OR of 120 or higher that would show a small profit across both periods measured but they account for only 5% of runners so you’re not always going to find one in here.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Group 2 or lower – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 5f – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 42 days or less – 20/25 (80%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners account for around half of the winners this century but it’s more important to look at horses who placed last time out as both those who finished second and third last time out are profitable to back blind this century, whereas last time out winners lose just as much as the other duo make. The same is true for the last 10 renewals in that horses placing second and third last time out take precedence over last time out winners.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 17/25 (68%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 11/17 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
Running previously at York is now appearing to be a non-negotiable with all of the last 10 winners having run here before. What is consistent across the two periods measured is that around 70% of those who ran here, had won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN 10+ times at 5f – 15/24 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON 5+ times at 5f – 13/24 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners had run at 5 furlongs 10 or more times and most had won at the trip 5 or more times. This has become a bigger requirement in recent years although 2 of the last 3 winners do not tick these boxes.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Unbeaten this season – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 1 win this season – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 2 wins this season – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
All bar last years winner had 2 or more runs this season and most had 3 or more. Only two winners were unbeaten this season and both of those have come in the last 10 renewals.
Most winners of this race had either 1 or 2 wins this season.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Group 2 or better – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
While this race holds prestige in the racing calendar and respect worldwide, it’s worth considering that there are limited chances to land sprint Group 1’s so it’s not surprising that more winners of this race than not this century had NOT already won a previous Group 1
Most winners of this race had won at least a Group 3 and it’s preferable to have a Group 1 or 2 under your belt too.