Nunthorpe Stakes Trends 2026: Dave Young's Stats Analysis

The Nunthorpe Stakes is now part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge, meaning the winner earns an automatic invitation to the same years’ Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Run during York‘s Ebor Festival, it is also a highly anticipated and targeted race in its own right.

It is one of a limited number of races where 2yos can race against their elders so we see this race attract the best sprinters around.

I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and the last 10 renewals to try and figure out what it takes to win this race.

KEY TRENDS

Age isn’t a huge factor, but 6-year-olds might be the ones to avoid
Respect Second and Third favourites and treat First favourites with caution
Preference to being drawn in the bottom half with the 4^th to 8^th lowest stalls being the sweet spot if backing blind
Should hold an OR of at least 110 and respect top-rated runners if an OR of 120+
Respect those who placed last time out over 5f in a Group 2 or better
Preferably last ran with the last 21 days but definitely the last 42 days
MUST have run at York and also won if running here more than once
Preferably has 10 or more runs and 5 or more wins at 5 furlongs
Has 3 or more runs this season and has won this season too
Should have won a Group race but preferably a Group 1

Focused Trends

AGE

2yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
3yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
4yo – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (30%)
8yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)

7 and 9-year-olds have the highest strike-rate this century at 16% and 14% respectively and both are showing positive ROI’s. 3 and 4-year-olds also show a profit if backing blind which doesn’t rule too many runners out but 5 and 6-year-olds might be the ones to think twice about although 75% of the 4-year-old winners came from the last 10 renewals.

PRICE

Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
Second and Third favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
Single-figures – 16/24 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)

Second and third favourites outperform favourites when combined across both period but it’s more in recent years that it could be noteworthy given 50% of renewals have been one by a runner ranked 2 or 3 in the market at SP.

DRAW – (Removed the 2008 running which was held at Newmarket)

Drawn in the TOP half – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)

The bottom half of the draw is the place to be however it’s preferable to be drawn in the inside 4^th to 8^th stalls after non-runners if you want to find a band to back blind and make money

OFFICIAL RATING

Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Highest rated runner in the field – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)

Considering this is a Group 1, the bar being set at 110 might seem a little low but there aren’t too many highly rated sprinters around. If there is a runner with an OR of 120 or higher they are worth following but it’s from a small sample size.

Backing the highest rated runner in the field would be costly to follow.

LAST TIME OUT

Won – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
Placed – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Group 2 or better – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
5f – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
21 days or less – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
42 days or less – 20/25 (80%) & 10/10 (100%)

While winning last time out shouldn’t be considered a negative, from a punting perspective you’ll make money backing horses who placed 2^nd or 3^rd last time out blind and lose around the same amount backing all those who won last time out.

Given the options for sprinters, many of the bigger races will attract decent sized fields and of course there can only be one winner.

Every winner from the last 10 ran 6 weeks ago or less with the majority coming here off a 3 week or shorter last run.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at York – 17/25 (68%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners who had WON at York – 11/17 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)

All of the last 10 winners had raced at York before and only 1 runner had been here more than once and not won. So it’s essential to have course form and you would only forgive horse with just one look here if they hadn’t also won here.

DISTANCE FORM

Winners who had RUN 10+ times at 5f – 16/25 (64%) & 8/10 (80%)
Winners who had WON 5+ times at 5f – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)

Given the earlier view from age, it’s not surprising that most winners had lots of 5 furlong experience and a bit of a turning trends is for horses to have at least 10 runs at the trip and 5 or more wins too.

SEASON FORM

Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Had 3+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Had 4+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
Had 5+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
Unbeaten this season – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
50% or more of races this season won – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (50%)
0 wins this season – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
1 win this season – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
2 wins this season – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
3 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)

Most winners of this race had 3 or more runs that season and the majority of those had won at least 1 race this season too.

GROUP FORM

Had won a Group 1 – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
Had won a Group 2 or better – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
Had won a Group 3 or better – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)

Given this is a race of such prestige and part of the Breeder’s Cup initiative it might be slightly surprising that so many winners of this contest hadn’t already won a Group 1. That’s a bit of a turning trend though and most winners had at least won a Group race of some nature.