The Nunthorpe is one of the shortest and speediest Group 1s of the season, often contested by horses of all ages from two and upwards. Dave Young has delved deep into the trends to help you find this year’s winner.
It is hard to believe that The Nunthorpe Stakes began as a selling race in the beginning of the 20th century but since 2011 it’s been part of the Breeder’ Cup Challenge which means the winner earns an automatic invitation to the same years’ Breeders Cup Turf Sprint! It’s also only one of a limited number of races where 2yo’s can race against their elders so we see this race attract the best sprinters around.
The race itself might be short but the legacy left behind will last an eternity; so, I’ve looked at every running this century and the last 10 renewals to try and figure out what it takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be a single-figure price
- Preference to those drawn in the BOTTOM half of the field
- Should be 110 rated or higher and respect those with OR of 115+
- Should have at least placed last time out, raced at 5f, preferably in a Group Race and probably in the last 6 weeks
- Should have at least raced at York but preferably won here
- Likely to have 10 or more runs at 5f and 5 or more wins at the trip too
- At least 2 runs this season and should have won at least once but rarely is the winner unbeaten
- Should have won a Group Race in their career
AGE
- 2yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 3yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 4yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
I’ve listed all winning ages (plus added in 8yo’s for completeness) and it looks as though 3yo’s to 7yo’s have a reasonable balance although 6yo would be below average for that group. If we pooled the ages from 3-5yo’s and the ‘others’ we’d see a split of 66% and 70% for the 3-5yo’s (this century and last 10 respectively) so I’d say that’s the sweet spot, however probably on par with the split of runners of those ages. Ultimately, I’d think that there isn’t a huge age bias.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Single-figures – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
Being a 5-furlong sprint race there’s going to be a larger amount of in the moment fortune that plays a part in the result. By this I mean, there will be many winners of this race which if you ran the race a number of times may not win again. This is reflected in favourites performing at 25% and 20% in the century and 10-year results but also with 67% and 80% of the winners priced in single-figures, so the winner is likely to be findable on form.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
This is a race where the average field size is 14 both this century and in the last 10, so I think there is something in being drawn in the bottom half of the field with around 70% of the winners coming from there in both ranges I’ve looked at.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
This is a big target race for the sprinters and if you consider that BATTASH was rated 123 and 126 when winning his two Nunthorpes, there is an obvious ceiling to how high a 5 -furlong horse can really end up. That said, most of the winners are rated 110+ and 7 of the 9 winners rated 115+ were sent off favourite and the other two were second favourites, so essentially a class horse in here is likely to show it.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Group Race – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 5f – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 42 days or less – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Winning last time out is preferable but placing looks to be very important as does racing at 5-furlongs last time out, but I suppose you’d expect both those things from the best horses who do target this race. Ideally, you’d want to have run in a Group race last time out and inside the last 6 weeks.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 17/24 (71%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 10/17 (59%) & 7/10 (70%)
Having run at York before has been a big positive this century but it’s become essential in the last 10 years, and this might have something to do with the introduction to the Breeders Cup Challenge. Winning York form is true of 7 of the last 10 winners so running here is one tick, but winning here is an even bigger one.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN 10+ times at 5f – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON 5+ times at 5f – 13/24 (54%) & 9/10 (90%)
We saw from the age spread that there isn’t a great bias there, however more recently winners of this race did have more 5-furlong experience with 90% having 10+ runs at the trip as opposed to the 63% from this century. With that, winning at this trip a number of times has increased too, with all of those 9 runners of 10+ races at this trip had all won 5 or more times, compared to just 54% of all runners this century having 5 wins at this trip to their name. The race appears to be developing into a genuine 5-furlong specialists’ race.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 16/24 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 11/24 (46%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Unbeaten this season – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 1 win this season – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
Every winner this century had at least 2 runs this season and the sweet spot appears to be between 2 and 5 runs although in the last 10 years this has reduced to 2-4 runs. Only BATTASH was unbeaten the season he won his second Nunthorpe so I don’t think we’ll see many unbeaten candidates coming in here but 90% of the winners had won this season and around 60% had won more than once so that’s probably a pointer to who’s coming here in decent form.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
While this is one of the best races for sprinters, we do well to remember that options to win a Group 1 in this sphere are limited by the fact not all 5-furlong horses stay 6 furlongs and over this side of the sea there aren’t options over shorter. While milers and Derby hopes can win over shorter before stepping up in trip, the best sprinters have very few opportunities to secure a Group 1 win so it’s not surprising that we’ve had 42% and 60% of the winners tasting previous Group 1 success because 71% and 80% had at least won a Group race. Winning any Group race is likely the better steer towards whittling down the field here.
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