The Old Roan Chase was first run in 2004 and we’ve had multiple Grade 1 winners launching their seasons from this handicap. I’ve looked at those 20 runnings and compared them to the last 10 to see if we can figure out how to find the winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites have a bad record in this race with just 2 clear favourites and 1 joint winning. All three of those came here with just 5 chase starts to their names
- Most winners will carry over 11 stone and hold an OR of 150+ although you can respect horses under 11 stone if they are single-figure priced
- Do not expect the winner to have run this season but the longest time ago they should have run will be last season’s Cheltenham Festival
- The winner of this race is not expected to have won or placed last time out
- Will have run at about 2m 4f and will have won at the trip too
- Probably has 10 or more runs over fences or is the favourite
- Ideally has 3 or more wins over fences or is the favourite
- Most likely to have already tasted Graded success
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/20 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 2/20 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 2/20 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 4/20 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 5/20 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 3/20 (15%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 2/20 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12yo – 1/20 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
Whole mixed bag for ages with winners as young as 5 and as old as 12 but the typical pinch point is in favour of 8 and 9 yos who have taken 4 of the last 6.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/20 (15%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Single-figures – 13/20 (65%) & 5/10 (50%)
Notoriously rough race for favourite backers with 2 clear favourites and a joint favourite in the last 20 years. Not much respite for backing shorter priced runners in general here with half of the last 10 winners being priced 12/1 or bigger. Ultimately, don’t take the markets opinion as gospel and respect horses who might be targeting this vs horses who may be using this as a season starter instead.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 11 stone plus – 13/20 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners will be carrying 11 stone or more and winners who carried less were priced 5/1 or shorter in 5 of the 7 cases with the other two priced 8/1 and 16/1.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 150 or more – 15/20 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
In line with the weight carried, most winners will already have an OR of 150+ and those who didn’t were aged either 8 or 9.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 3/20 (15%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Placed – 8/20 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 19F or more – 16/20 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran this season – 5/20 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
Worth mentioning that no winner has come here off a longer lay off than 226 days, so while most won’t have been seen this season, they likely ran at The Cheltenham Festival or after, last season.
Last time out winners have only produced 3 winners in its history and 2 of those came in the last 10 years but even placing last time out doesn’t look essential having dropped from 40% in all to 20% in the last 10, and both of those placed horses won last time out too.
Most horses will have run at 19F or further last time out 3 of the 4 who didn’t were coming in from a prep run in the last 3 weeks and raced at either 16f or 17f.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 15/20 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 4/15 (27%) & 2/7 (29%)
Most of the winners had run at Aintree before with 70% or more fitting that criteria. Of those who had run here though, just under 30% had won here too so while it wouldn’t be a bad thing to have been round here, you can come here without a look and take this.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN more than once at about 2m 4f – 19/20 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at about 2m 4f – 14/20 (70%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most horses had run at about 2m 4f on multiple occasions and had more than once too.
SEASON FORM
- Had run this season – 6/20 (30%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won this season – 1/6 (17%) & 1/4 (25%)
Given this race is run right at the start of the jumps season proper it’s no surprise to see that most winners haven’t been seen since last term and those who have, typically had prepped for the race so coming here in winning form wasn’t really the objective.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had more than 10 RUN over fences – 14/20 (70%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 2 WINS over fences – 17/20 (85%) & 9/10 (90%)
Experience over fences looks to be crucial here with 70% of all winners and 80% of the last 10 having 10 or more runs over fences. 85% of all winners and 90% of the last 10 winners had more than 2 wins over the larger obstacles too.
Curiously, the 3 winnings favourites of this race ALL only had 5 previous chase starts.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Graded Race – 16/20 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won a Grade 1 – 8/20 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
Being a Grade 2 at a prestigious track, it’s no surprise that most winners of this race have already secured Graded success in the past. In more recent years though, there has been a drop in the number of Graded wins and the nature of them, so Graded form alone is worth recognising.
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