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    Paddy Power Handicap Chase Trends 2025 - What Does It Take To Land Big Leopardstown Handicap?

    David Young
    David Young
    December 18, 2025
    Paddy Power Handicap Chase Trends 2025 - What Does It Take To Land Big Leopardstown Handicap?

    What’s not to like about a big field staying handicap chase and they don’t come much more memorable than this contest? I’ve looked at every running this century and compared against the last decade to suggest what it typically takes to land this big pot.

    • No huge age bias but will NOT be older than 9-years-old
    • No winning favourite since 2012
    • Better to follow horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter in the long term
    • Look to those rated between 130 and 135 and carrying between 10-07 and 10-09
    • Did NOT win last time out but placed Top 4
    • Last ran between 16 and 60 days ago
    • No betting benefit to having course experience
    • Likely to have run at 3 miles plus but is not expected to have won at 3 miles plus

    AGE

    • 5yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
    • 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
    • 7yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
    • 8yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)

    No single age is profitable to back blind although 6-year-olds show the ‘best’ losing ROI with -25%. There has been no winner older than 9 this century though, so we can certainly use that as a ceiling.

    It’s a similar picture from the last decade too but with 6, 8 and 9-year-olds about the ‘best’ losing ROI’s all at 29%.

    PRICE

    • Favourites – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite – 9/25 (55%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • SP of 17/2 or bigger – 16/26 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)

    No winning favourite since 2012 but price is somewhat helpful in finding the winners with a 13% strike rate across all runners with an Sp of 8/1 or lower this century. That’s not profitable to back blind but does only result in a -10% ROI vs a -44% ROI for backing everything else.

    WEIGHT

    • Carries 10-01 to 10-11 – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Carries 10-07 to 10-09 – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)

    To find the bulk of winner we can look to runners carrying 10-01 to 10-11. This isn’t profitable to back blind but inside this window there is a pocket between 10-07 and 10-09 that has performed well and is profitable to back blind. It’s +£49.50 this century and +£41 in the last decade.

    OFFICIAL RATING

    • Winners with an OR of 118 or lower – 7/25 (28%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • Winners with an OR of 130 to 135 – 9/25 (36%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Winners with an OR of 142 to 144 – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)

    There’s a change in this race with no runner in the last decade rated lower than 122 but also no winner rated lower than 130. Earlier this century it was common for horses rated much lower to be winning this race.

    Still, across both periods there is a good number of winners coming from the bands of 130-135 or 142-144.

    WEIGHT CARRIED AND OFFICIAL RATING COMBINED

    • Holds an OR of 130 to 135 and carrying 10-01 to 10-11 – 9/25 (36%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Holds an OR of 130 to 135 and carrying 10-07 to 10-09 – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)

    Looking at weight carried and official rating combined we start off between 130 and 135 and carrying 10-01 and 10-11. This shows a 64% ROI this century to SP and 59% in the last decade.

    Tightening the weight carried to 10-07 and 10-09 finds 7 of the 9 winners from the previous bands but increases the SP ROI to 205% this century and finds 5 of the 6 winners from the previous bands in the last decade and increases that SP ROI to 155%.

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Ran between 16 and 60 days ago – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Won last time out – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)

    Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days but then so did most runners. Last time out winners are the most expensive previous race position to follow blind with a -£71 loss this century. Backing all runners who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out finds most winners of this race and is profitable to back blind, even better just taking those 3rd and 4th last time out.

    The last decade paints a similar picture however following last time out finishing positions it’s only those who placed second which are profitable blind.

    COURSE FORM

    • Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 17/25 (68%) & 5/10 (50%)
    • Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 8/17 (47%) & 3/5 (60%)

    The split this century for those with course experience is a bit of a red herring as having been here shows a -40% ROI to back blind and it’s a -42% ROI if you hadn’t been here. The ROI does improve if looking for horses who have won here, but it’s still a loss maker with a -20% ROI.

    In the last decade it’s seemingly better to have not been here with a -15% ROI compared to a -60% ROI for those who had.

    DISTANCE FORM

    • Winners who had RUN at 3m or further – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Winners who had WON at 3m or further – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)

    This century, most winners had run at 3 miles or further, but most hadn’t won at 3 miles or further. The same is true for the last decade.