The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major handicap the National Hunt season and we’ve seen plenty of previous Graded winners land the spoils.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century (with a view against the last ten) to provide some insight into what it typically takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged between 7 and 9-years-old
- Carries 10-13, 11-0 or 10-6 or lower
- Has an OR of 137 to 147 with preference to 141 plus
- Probably has run this season or comes from Aintree’s Grand National Festival
- Should have raced at Cheltenham and more than once
- Likely to have raced at 19.5 or 20 furlongs last time out
- Will have won at 19-21f but should also have 7 or more runs at the trip range
- Should have 6 or more runs with 2 or more wins over fences
- Respect horses who have a previous Graded win of any nature
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
9-year-olds are the only profitable age to back blind in the last decade, and they also operate at the highest win strike rate. They are still profitable to follow blind throughout this century too but it’s 7-year-olds who have the best win strike rate.
Most winners come between the aged of 7 to 9 but it’s relevant to notice that 8-year-olds have the joint lowest win strike rate of any age across each period.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- SP between 13/2 and 8/1 – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
Six winning favourites this century would actually show a 20% ROI if backing blind despite the number possibly feeling a little low to be profitable.
Slightly more niche but 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th favourites at SP have all found 3 winners each this century and only 2nd and 3rd favourites were not profitable to just back blind.
The sweet spot for price bracket this century is between 13/2 and 8/1 with more winners than favourites but operating at about the same ROI at just over 20%.
The results change quite dramatically for the last decade with only 1 of the 6 winning favourites coming in that period and 2 of the 7 winners priced between 13/2 and 8/1.
4th favourites hold the best results with 3 wins in the last decade for a 300% ROI and runners sent off between 17/2 and 12/1 account for 4 winners with just over a 25% ROI.
WEIGHT
- Carried 10-13 or 11-0 – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Carried 10-6 or lower – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
Weight is a tricky one to find a perfect window as while most winners have carried 11 stone or less it’s only been profitable to follow that blind in the last decade and that’s mostly down to a 25/1 winner in 2017.
I’d still suggest that slight preference must go to horses carrying 11 stone or less and to be extra cautious of any horses shouldering more than 11 stone 7.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 137 to 147 – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
137 to 147 seems to be the sweet spot in terms of Official ratings for winners however you’d be losing money if you bet every horse that fit inside that bracket.
In more recent renewals, you could bring the bottom line up to 141 to include 6 of the 7 winners from the last decade and that make backing runners blind in that band profitable.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 15 days ago or less – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran 60 days ago or less – 14/25 (56%%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 10/24 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran at 19.5f or 20f – 14/25 (56%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won last time out – 6/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Ran at Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby – 12/25 (48%) & 9/10 (90%)
Preference goes to horses who had a prep run coming into the race over the last decade but the 2 exceptions both came from Aintree’s Grand National Festival.
9 of the last 10 winners ran at either 19.5 or 20 furlongs last time out which is another turning trend worth noticing.
The final obvious turning trend from last time out would be the fact we haven’t had a last time out winner take this race in any of the last 11 renewals.
It would be highly profitable to back all runners who last ran at either Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby last time out as a collective with the number of winners in the last decade reading as 4,3,2 respectively. This century the same collective are profitable blind but it’s worth noting that ALL of the Chepstow and Wetherby winners from last time out came in the last decade.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 17/24 (71%) & 6/9 (78%)
- Winners who had run MORE than twice at Cheltenham – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Only GA LAW in 2022 hadn’t already run at Cheltenham and most of those who had run here had already won here too. It’s also worth noting that all other winners bar 2022 had been here at least 3 times before.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON between 2m 3f and 2m 5f – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 7 or more runs between 2m 3f and 2m 5f – 14/25 (56%) & 9/10 (90%)
We’re not going to get any help by looking for horses to have winning form at 19-21f although that is a non-negotiable to have as a box ticked. However, since and including 2009, 12 of the 16 winners had at least 7 starts about between 19-21f and 9 of the last ten.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had at least 6 RUNS over fences – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had at least 2 WINS over fences – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
There was a time where horses in their first season outside of novice company over fences or even making their handicap debuts were the ones to side with but that looks another turning trend. You’re looking for a horse with at least 6 chase starts already and at least 2 wins over fences to find the winner of this race now.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Graded Race – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
This race holds Grade 3 status so it might be a little surprising that so many winners of this race had already won a Graded race of some form before taking this.