The 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is nearly upon us, and in such an open-looking renewal, finding the winner is as tricky as ever. Here are the views of GG’s in-house tipster Joe Napier, as he previews the race.
Ace Impact crowned his unbeaten career with his trademark turn of foot capping a scintillating success over Westover in 2023.
LOOK DE VEGA
(Carlos & Yann Lerner/Ronan Thomas)
But for his prep run, we would probably be looking at Look De Vega in a very similar way we did Ace Impact last season. After three runs he was an unbeaten French Derby winner, scoring at Chantilly over 1m2½f with a ready final furlong kick. At that stage, he had won three races from three by a combined 12½ lengths, and looked set to be a clear favourite for the Arc.
Plenty of recent Arc winners have been undercooked for their preparatory visits, but Look De Vega was nevertheless put in his place in the Prix Niel. That was not strongly run and Ronan Thomas had to make his own running, but Sosie, third to him in the Prix Du Jockey Club, was 3½ lengths beyond him come the line. He will almost certainly come on substantially for the run, but he is not necessarily bred for 1m4f either, and is likely to be pushed for favouritism.
SOSIE
(Andre Fabre/Maxime Guyon)
No trainer has more Arc trophies in his dining room cabinet than Andre Fabre. Spread over 32 years, he first won it in 1987, most recently claiming the race when Waldgeist upset Enable, and Sosie may well possess the requisite abilities to push his haul ever closer to double figures.
His Prix Niel success over Delius and Look De Vega was impressive and a second successive victory over the Arc course and distance after he won the Grand Prix de Paris in July. He is unbeaten at the track, clearly stays the trip well and will go on soft ground, which looks increasingly likely, so he is the best barometer by which the opposition should be matched. Whether his form stands up to this greater scrutiny is more debatable, but he is also beautifully drawn.
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LOS ANGELES
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Los Angeles would be a very unique case inside Ballydoyle HQ, as we all know he is only the second most talented horse of his generation trained by Aidan O’Brien. Yet, he may well be the Arc favourite come Sunday.
That should not be used to belittle his achievements, which are many and varied this term, including winning the Irish Derby, placing at Epsom despite going with a strong gallop, and warming up with a fine fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes over an inadequate 1m2f last time out.
He gallops relentlessly, which he will need to do in a race such as this, but the Irish Champion may well have been a stronger race than this year’s Arc. Ryan Moore takes the mount in search of his third win in the race and the gallant son of Camelot can make his presence felt again, albeit he does not scream Arc winner even in a year such as this.
SHIN EMPEROR
(Yoshito Yahagi/Ryusei Sakai)
Those unfamiliar with the Japanese obsession with the Arc need only pop onto X to find a clip of the nation’s racing fans reacting to Orfevre’s last gasp defeat to Solemia in 2012. This is a race the country is desperate to win and in Shin Emperor, they have a horse with the consistency and pedigree to finally deliver.
Although he is yet to race on ground softer than good, he is a full brother to 2020 Arc hero Sottsass who relished it. That sibling also won an ordinary Arc renewal, but Shin Emperor may not have to be exceptional either. He was third in the Japanese Derby in May before his European prep saw him finish third in the Irish Champion Stakes without much luck in running. He holds Los Angeles on that form and should improve again for 1m4f. This could be their moment.
THE FIELD
It was 3/1 the field when Torquator Tasso caused a seismic 72/1 shock in 2021, so do not rule out any of the remaining dozen lightly.
Beginning nearer the head of the market, Delius came with a tall reputation for Jean-Claude Rouget this season. Although he has form to turn around with Sosie, he may be able to do so if this is run strongly, as he gives the impression there is more left in the tank, although his awkward head carriage is a worry.
Al Riffa gives Joseph O’Brien a fine chance after bolting in for a second Group 1 success in the Grosser Preis von Berlin in August. He was beaten just a length by City Of Troy in the Eclipse on soft ground too, but whether he quite wants it slow over this trip may be a barrier. Bluestocking, on the other hand, proved she handles it superbly when a gusty winner of the Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares over course and distance last month. She has danced most dances this season and is a serious each-way contender as team captain for the Brits.
She battled back to beat Aventure that day. In the Wertheimer colours, Christophe Ferland’s filly could well get the better today under more patient tactics though, as Stephane Pasquier, taking over from Maxime Guyon, deployed those perfectly at Deauville two starts back. Three-year-old fillies won in 2013 and 2017, with a runner-up in 2018 too.
Among the older brigade, Continuous was fifth in a stronger running a year ago off the back of his St Leger victory. His season has probably been geared around peaking here so he should not be underestimated, although stall 14 is a brutal draw. 16 is even worse for Mqse De Sevigne, who is unbeaten this year, though has never won by far, nor raced over 1m4f.
Of the quartet of French-trained outsiders, Sevenna’s Knight makes most appeal if this becomes a slog, with Haya Zark well-beaten here a year ago, Zarakem exposed as a bit below top class, and Survie well behind Bluestocking and Aventure last time out.
The last two hopefuls are Sunway, potentially overpriced on his Irish Derby second, but having raced plenty this term, and German raider Fantastic Moon, who is of Group 1 quality in his homeland, but has questions to answer on a slow surface; he was 11th in the 2023 Arc.
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VERDICT
Not many are discounted in this year’s Arc, with it difficult to dissuade against a small fancy on the vast majority. Shin Emperor (second choice) could go very close to a first Arc win for Japan, but even though his full brother Sottsass relished a slow surface, it is still a slight concern he himself has never encountered one as yet. Sosie and Delius may be closer matched than recent running suggests as a strongly run Arc may benefit the latter, while Al Riffa and Bluestocking both make each-way appeal. Slight preference overall is for AVENTURE, who was second to Bluestocking in the Prix Vermeille despite racing keenly at times and overtaking Ralph Beckett’s filly a furlong out. If she is able to be played slightly later, she may have too much this time, and that form stacks up strongly with the Nassau winner (Opera Singer) well beaten in fifth, and French Oaks winner (Sparkling Plenty) sixth. Continuous may be the better bet of the O’Brien duo ahead of Los Angeles as this has been the plan for him for 12 months, though both are considered in this very open renewal.
- Aventure
- Shin Emperor
- Bluestocking
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