Popularly referred to as the “Arc”, this is the world’s most prestigious all-aged horse race. The winner’s list is purely a roll of honour of the best miler and half horses in Europe. It is by far the richest race in Europe and is worth almost £2.5M to the winner, and can be worth a fair few pennies to punters too. Dave Young looks into the trends to try and make sure you’re on said winner.
Despite it’s European home, the Arc is enjoyed in over 50 countries across the world via broadcast and there is a strong desire for the Japanese to land the spoils with Orfevre twice runner up in 2012 and 2013.
The last three renewals have a seen the prize go to France, England and Germany but both John Oxx and Aidan O’Brien have landed the spoils for Ireland twice each this century.
9 of the last 16 winners were mares including both Treve and Enable who landed the Arc twice in succession albeit Enables first was at Chantilly while Longchamp underwent a redevelopment.
KEY TRENDS
- Big advantage to be drawn in the bottom half but fancied horses can win from higher
- The majority of winners are single-figure prices
- Will have a career high RPR of 120+ and ideally achieved this season
- Most likely ran in the last 6 weeks, ideally placed but preferably won last time out
- Helpful to have run at Longchamp before and if doing so should have won here
- Should have run at and won at 1m 4f
- Should have 3+ runs and 2+ wins this season or unbeaten if 2 or fewer runs
- Will have already won a Group 1 and preferably has won 2 or more
- 75% of the winners this century last ran at Longchamp, Leopardstown or Baden-Baden
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 13/24 (54%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners this century were aged 3-5 although older horses have tried. However, typically a career at stud or as a broodmare takes priority which is why we’ve seen so many 3 and 4-yo winners. 3yo’s have a 6bs allowance and fillies & mares get 3lbs so it’s no surprise to see 9 of the last 16 winners being fillies or mares and 4 of those as 3yo’s (plus two 2-time winners)
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Single-figures – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
Considering this race will attract the best mile and a halfers in Europe, it’s no surprise that 70% of the winners this century, and the last 10 years, have been single figure prices. We’ve had 4 of the 7 winning favourites this century coming out on top in the last 7 years but in that same time frame we have the 72/1 shock German winner Torquator Tasso, albeit on very testing ground.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
The draw has a huge influence on this race, especially in the market when we know who’s running from where and 70% of the winners have been drawn in the bottom half. 6 of the 7 winners from a High draw were priced in the first 3 in the betting and 5 were 9/2 or shorter, so it’s not over for a good horse to win from a bad draw.
SEASON AND CAREER HIGH RPR’S
- Winners with a career RPR of 120 or more – 22/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with a career RPR of 125 or more – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who posted career high RPR that season – 22/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
With the race run in France the Official ratings don’t quite translate so using RPR’s is an easy method to look for patterns. All bar 2 winners this century had an RPR of 120 or more in their career and the two who didn’t are the biggest priced winner at 33/1 and 72/1. Almost two-thirds of winners achieved a peak RPR of 125+ but what’s quite interesting is that 80% of winners recorded their highest RPR the season they won the Arc. The two exceptions were Treve and Enable when winning their second. So, either come here with a Peak RPR if you want to win the Arc or come here defending your crown.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Group 1 – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Abt 10F – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 12f – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 21 days ago exactly – 10/24 (42%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 42 days or less – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
You’ll hear a lot of talk about prep races being used as just that, but over 70% of winners this century won last time out and almost 90% placed. Around the 70% mark ran in a Group 1 last time out but only Enable on her second win ran below Group 2 level. As you’d probably expect, most horses will prep at 1m4f but always at least at 1m2f. Most winners also ran inside the last 6 weeks and most of those inside the last 5. No winner ran inside the last 21 days but 10 did run exactly 21 days ago. 75% of the winners this century last ran at Longchamp, Leopardstown or Baden-Baden
COURSE FORM (Excluded 2016 & 2017 during redevelopments)
- Winners who had RUN at Longchamp – 14/22 (64%) & 4/8 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Longchamp – 13/14 (93%) & 4/4 (100%)
Half of recent winners and about two thirds this century had already run at Longchamp and all but one had won here too. So, winning course form looks a huge positive.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 12f – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at about 12f – 21/23 (91%) & 9/9 (100%)
Given the standard of this race it’s no surprise that all bar last years winner Ace Impact had already race at 1m4f and all but two of those had won at the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Unbeaten this season – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 1 win this season – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 4+ wins this season – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
The only winner this century who had not won a race that season was Treve when she came back to retain her title in 2014 and it looks like the line to be drawn is expecting your horse to have won 2 or more times this season, but definitely at least once. The only winner who didn’t have 2 or more runs this century was Enable on her second win so really we’re looking for a horse with 3 or more runs and 2 or more wins, but outside of that remit, if they’ve already won the Arc we’ll forgive them, or if they’ve had just the 2 runs, then they should be unbeaten, as were both Sakhee in 2001 and Alpinista in 2022.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Won 2+ Group 1’s – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
Solemia in 2012 is the only winner to have not already won a Group 1 and she landed the spoils at 33/1 and with the lowest record peak RPR this century of just 111. The ground was very testing that day so the race probably felt like further than the 1m 4f that it is and this is backed up by the winning time of 2:37:68 which is the slowest this century. Curiously, Torquator Tasso in 2021 won in a time of 2:37:62 and he was the biggest priced winner this century sent off a huge 72/1. So probably helps realise that a shock is more likely in bad conditions but outside of that you should have at least one Group 1 win already but ideally two.
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