Popularly referred to as the “Arc”, this is the world’s most prestigious all-aged horse race. The winner’s list is purely a roll of honour of the best miler and half horses in Europe. It is by far the richest race in Europe and is worth almost £2.5M to the winner.
10 of the last 17 winners were mares including both Treve and Enable who landed the Arc twice in succession albeit Enable’s first was at Chantilly while Longchamp underwent a redevelopment.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century with a comparison to the last 10, to see what it typically takes to land this globally recognised prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Won’t be older than 5 but most likely to be aged 3 or 4
- Preference to be drawn in the bottom half but fancied horses can win from higher
- Most winners have single-figure priced SP’s
- Has a career high RPR of 120+ and achieved that number this season
- Ideally has run at Longchamp and should have won here
- Should have run at and won at 1m 4f
- Should have 3+ runs and 2+ wins this season or unbeaten if 2 or fewer runs
- Will have already won a Group 1 and preferably has won 2 or more
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 13/25 (52%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners this century were aged 3-5 and it’s worth remembering that 3yo’s have a 6bs weight for age allowance. Still, it’s 4-year-olds in recent years who have taken the majority of titles and even this century 88% of winners were aged either 3 or 4.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Single-figures – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
The biggest price winner for some time was 72/1 Torquator Tasso from Germany but his win came on very testing ground.
In the last decade, the balance of favourites has seen more placing well and there has also been and increase in the ratio of winners being sent off a single figure price.
Ultimately, respect the market and only look for a shock on really bad ground.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of the Arc will come from the bottom half of the draw and 16 of the 18 came from no higher than stall 6 with the other two coming from stall 8.
Of the 7 winners who won from the top half of the draw, 6 were in the Top 3 of the betting and 5 of those were sent off at 9/2 or shorter. Ultimately, a very good horse can win from any draw, but preference would always be to those drawn lower
SEASON AND CAREER HIGH RPR’S
- Winners with a career RPR of 120 or more – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with a career RPR of 125 or more – 14/25 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who posted career high RPR that season – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
I’ve used RPR’s for this rating section as with the race being run in France there isn’t really another easily accessible rating system across countries that can be used.
All bar two winners had recorded an RPR in excess of 120 and those two were both big priced winners.
The two winners who did NOT record their career best RPR’s in the same season that they won this race were both previous winners of the race.
In summary, you should have recorded a 120 or higher RPR in your career and that highest career RPR should have come this season, unless you’re already an Arc winner.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Placed – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Group 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Abt 10F – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 12f – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 21 days ago exactly – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 42 days or less – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
There’s no hiding from this being the biggest race in Europe therefore our expectations and standards coming into this race for a prospective winner is understandably high.
You’d expect the horse to have won last time out a Group 1 last time out and they must have done so at either 10 or 12 furlongs with a preference for the latter.
It’s also important to respect horses who ran 21 days ago in Longchamp for their trials meeting.
COURSE FORM (Excluded 2016 & 2017 during redevelopments)
- Winners who had RUN at Longchamp – 15/23 (65%) & 4/8 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Longchamp – 14/15 (93%) & 4/4 (100%)
Plenty of winners of the Arc had already run at Longchamp but more importantly, all bar one horse who had ran here had won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 12f – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at about 12f – 22/24 (92%) & 9/9 (100%)
Every winner this century bar Ace Impact had already race at 1m4f and all but two of those had won at the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Unbeaten this season – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 20/25 (20%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (00%)
- 1 win this season – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 4+ wins this season – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
The only winner this century who had not won a race that season was Treve when she came back to retain her title in 2014. The only winner who didn’t have 2 or more runs this century was Enable on her second win.
We’re looking for a horse with 3 or more runs and 2 or more wins, but outside of that remit, if they’ve already won the Arc we’ll forgive them, or if they’ve had just the 2 runs, then they should be unbeaten, as were both Sakhee in 2001 and Alpinista in 2022.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Won 2+ Group 1’s – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Solemia in 2012 is the only winner to have not already won a Group 1 and most winners of the Arc, especially in recent years had 2 or more Group 1 wins to their name before now.