It’s not always been the winner of the Gold Cup proper who lands this race and I’ll always remember Ruby Walsh on Kemboy in this race for his last ever ride. Sometimes, it can just boil down to who wants it most in this race, but I’ve looked the winners from this century and the last 10 renewals, to help whittle down the field and try to find the most likely winner.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be no older than 9 and likely to be aged 7 or 8
- Will have an SP of between 14/1 and 20/1 or 4/1 or lower
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree
- Should have already won at Punchestown
- Has run at 3 miles or above and ideally should have won at that trip or further
- A Grade 1 winner priced 4/1 or shorter, if no Grade 1 win prior, no bigger than 20/1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
7-year-olds have the best strike-rate across both periods covered and they’re profitable to back blind too. 8-year-olds are next best and although they make a small loss in the last decade, they have been profitable to follow blind this century.
9-year-olds and 10-year-olds have struggled with just a 7% strike-rate each this century and they’re both big loss makers blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Top 2 in the betting – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- SP of 4/1 or shorter – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites do make a small profit in the last decade and close to £5 this century but it’s second favourites who have shown the biggest ROI in the last decade at 73%.
There have been three 20/1 winners of the race this century, including just two years ago with Fastorslow and backing all runners blind with an SP of 14/1 to 20/1 is a decent money maker. You’d find far more winners if you backed all runners with an SP of 4/1 or shorter and that makes a small profit.
OFFICIAL RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 9/16 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
This is the top tier of Jumps racing do it’s no surprise to see so many winners with a 170+ official rating. They are profitable to back blind across both periods too.
While more winners than not did NOT hold the highest OR in the field, they’ve shown a very small profit to level stakes and the last 6 have all finished Top 2, but only 2 have won.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Last time out winners go OK in this race but they’re only showing a 10p profit in the last decade and losing around £11 this century.
Horses who last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree take the majority of renewals, and if you did back every horse who last ran at Cheltenham blind you’d show a £3 profit this century but near £9 in the last decade.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners had already won at Punchestown but it’s not profitable to back this blind, although it has a better ROI than horses who haven’t won here yet.
If you were to look at horses who had won a Grade 1, won at this track and were priced 4/1 or shorter, you could create a 51% ROI this century to SP and 78% to SP in the last decade.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 2m7f or further – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
Only 1 winner this century hadn’t raced at 3-miles or further and most horses had won at 2m7f or further before this race.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won at least one Grade 1 – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners had already won a Grade 1 race and if you couple that with a Top price of 4/1 at SP, you’d show a 15% ROI this century and 38% in the last decade.
For horses who are yet to win a Grade 1, they have been profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade but all of those were priced 20/1 or shorter so you can increase the ROI’s by ignoring bigger priced runners.
Honours Roll
- 2024 – Fastorslow (FR)
- 2023 – Fastorslow (FR)
- 2022 – Allaho (FR)
- 2021 – Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
- 2019 – Kemboy (FR)
- 2018 – Bellshill (IRE)
- 2017 – Sizing John (GB)
- 2016 – Carlingford Lough (IRE)
- 2015 – Don Cossack (GER)
- 2014 – Boston Bob (IRE)
- 2013 – Sir Des Champs (FR)
- 2012 – China Rock (IRE)
- 2011 – Follow The Plan (IRE)
- 2010 – Planet Of Sound (GB)
- 2009 – Notre Pere (FR)
- 2008 – Neptune Collonges (FR)
- 2007 – Neptune Collonges (FR)
- 2006 – War Of Attrition (IRE)
- 2005 – Kicking King (IRE)
- 2004 – Beef Or Salmon (IRE)
- 2003 – First Gold (FR)
- 2002 – Florida Pearl (IRE)
- 2001 – Moscow Express (IRE)
- 2000 – Commanche Court (IRE)