A Group 1 for milers since 2003 and in recent years we’ve seen the best of the best confirm their authority on a division with the likes of Baaeed and Frankel.
I’ve looked at all 25 runnings this century (including one at York in 2005) to see if we can establish what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- 4-year-olds are the horses to follow but respect foreign 5-year-olds too
- Draw doesn’t appear to be hugely relevant
- Favourites have performed well in recent years
- Respect the highest-rated runner in the field
- Respect horses coming from the Lockinge
- Has their furthest career win at 8 to 9 furlongs inclusive
- Either hasn’t run here, or has won here and is sent off 4/1 or shorter for this race
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Both this century and in the last decade there have been more runners who were NOT aged 4 as there have been who were. It’s near 50/50 but you can see that 4-year-olds have a far superior strike rate. They’re also profitable to back blind across both periods showing an 8% ROI this century but a 41% ROI in the last decade.
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
This race doesn’t always hold the biggest fields but overall, it doesn’t seem to have too much influence where you are drawn.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 6/10 (60%)
- SP of 6/4 or shorter – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites have seen an upturn in fortune in the last decade and before that it was second favourites who were the beneficiaries with 7 wins from 14 up to and including 2013.
There have been 4 winners at double-figure odds and two of those were 33/1 shots making backing all runners at the price blind a good money maker but can it continue? Longer term, it’s been profitable to back all runners blind who were sent of 6/4 or shorter.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 8/16 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
Backing the highest rated runner alone in this race will make a profit. It shows a 17% ROI since 2009 and 11% in the last decade. If you narrow it down to just backing the favourites who are Top-Rated you create a losing system. So conversely, backing Top-Rated runners who are NOT the favourite is the best system with a 48% ROI since 2009 and 30% ROI in the last decade. It doesn’t come around every year though with just 6 since 2009 to take a chance on.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran in the last 31-38 days – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in the Lockinge – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Last time out winners do make money from the last decade but they’re small loss-makers this century. Horses who last ran in the Lockinge have done well in this race with an ROI of 14% this century, even if they didn’t win last time out with just 6 of the 15 having won both. The date of that race and this means most winners had last run in the last 31-38 days.
FORM
- Group 1 winner (since 2003) – 16/22 (73%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Furthest win at 8-9 furlongs – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Being a previous Group 1 winner is desirable but it’s not essential. Most winners of this race though had their furthest career win at between 8 and 9 furlongs (inclusive)
ASCOT FORM – Number of winners (ROI in brackets)
- Had run – 12/25 (-59%) & 7/10 (-38%)
- Had run and sent off single-figures – 10/25 (-45%) & 5/10 (-54%)
- Had run and won – 9/25 (-20%) & 6/10 (36%)
- Had run and won and sent off 4/1 or shorter – 7/25 (14%) & 4/10 (59%)
- NO RUN – 13/25 (30%) & 3/10 (77%)
I’ve changed this view to show the ROI figures in brackets as we can see an increase as the list goes on. Ultimately, horses who had run do not have enough significance in that alone unless they have won here and are sent off 4/1 or shorter for this race. Instead, horses who have no run here are profitable to back blind regardless of their price.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Charyn (IRE)
- 2023 – Triple Time (IRE)
- 2022 – Baaeed (GB)
- 2021 – Palace Pier (GB)
- 2020 – Circus Maximus (IRE)
- 2019 – Lord Glitters (FR)
- 2018 – Accidental Agent (GB)
- 2017 – Ribchester (IRE)
- 2016 – Tepin (USA)
- 2015 – Solow (GB)
- 2014 – Toronado (IRE)
- 2013 – Declaration Of War (USA)
- 2012 – Frankel (GB)
- 2011 – Canford Cliffs (IRE)
- 2010 – Goldikova (IRE)
- 2009 – Paco Boy (IRE)
- 2008 – Haradasun (AUS)
- 2007 – Ramonti (FR)
- 2006 – Ad Valorem (USA)
- 2005 – Valixir (IRE)
- 2004 – Refuse To Bend (IRE)
- 2003 – Dubai Destination (USA)
- 2002 – No Excuse Needed (GB)
- 2001 – Medicean (GB)
- 2000 – Kalanisi (IRE)