One of the feature races on British Champions Day at Ascot is the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Run over 1m, this contest will attract the premier milers from across Europe and our resident stats guru Dave Young takes a look at the recent trends to try and help you find the winner.
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 4yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
Three-year-olds have the most wins and are the only age to not lose money this century if backing blind. They have the highest place strike-rate and there have been no winners older than 5 this century and 30 horses have tried. To put that into context, there have been 6 winning 5-year-olds from the 35 who ran.
In the last decade, 3-year-olds again provide the best level stake results and who a £10 profit from 52 runners. Also again, the 5-year-olds vs older horses produce the same outcome. No winners from an older age than 5 from 18 runners but 2 winners from 17 runners who tried at the age of 5.
STALLS (Removed the 2005 renewals staged at Newmarket for this)
- Drawn in stall 6 or higher – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
There is a clear benefit to being drawn in stall 6 or higher with three quarters or more winners found this way.
There have been two renewals at Ascot with less than 6 runners, but the winners were drawn in the widest and second widest stalls after non-runners.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Third Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 1/10 (10%)
- SP of 6/1 or shorter – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites and third favourites both have 9 wins each this century but the latter show a 100% ROI and the former shows a 20% loss. Most winners were sent off at 6/1 or shorter which is profitable alone to back blind this century, but you could show a near 100% ROI by backing all runners with an SP between 9/2 and 6/1, which likely encompasses most of those third favourites talked about before.
In the last decade there has been just one winning third favourite and favourites themselves show a modest 50p profit if backing blind. Again, most winners were sent off 6/1 or shorter and again you’d show a profit backing those with an SP between 9/2 and 6/1, but you’d have made more in the last 10 running’s if you back all runners sent off between 13/8 and 9/4. Again, that falls in line with the reference to market position in this period.
OFFICIAL RATING (removed 2 renewals with the winner holding no OR)
- Winners with OR of 115 or higher – 20/23 (87%) & 8/10 (80%)
It’s important to mention that 3-year-olds receive 3lbs from their elders and they are also the winning most age (although equal or worse in terms of strike rate with 5-year-olds).
In the last decade 8 of the 10 winners held an OR of 115 or higher and the two who didn’t were rated 114 and 111, the 111 rated runner being a 3yo so effectively adjusted to 114 if we’re being kind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 3 last time out – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran in the last 6 weeks – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
This is a proper Group 1 with some true modern greats on the honours roll so that might be a little surprising that just over half of the winners of this race had won last time out. Still, that shows that most horses can be beaten but it’s very important for the winner of this race to have at least finished top 3 last time out.
A bit of a turning trends is the number of winners who took this having raced inside the last 6 weeks and alongside that it’s slightly more encouraging than it was to see a horse coming from Leopardstown or more interestingly Longchamp last time out.
COURSE FORM (2005 renewal removed having been run in Newmarket)
- Has run at Ascot – 14/24 (58%) & 5/20 (50%)
- Has won at Ascot – 9/14 (64%) & 3/5 (60%)
It’s preferable but not essential to have run at Ascot before and it’s also preferable but not essential to have won here if you have been here.
The 5 winners who had been here but had not won here had their best placings as below:
Falbrav – 5th twice
Excelebration – 2nd twice
Olympic Glory – 2nd from one run
The Revenant – 2nd from one run
Bayside Boy – 7th from one run
TRAINERS (Still training with more than one win this century)
- John Gosden – 4/17 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Aidan O’Brien – 4/38 (11%) & 1/14 (7%)
- Saeed bin Suroor – 3/21 (14%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Roger Varian – 2/7 (29%) & 2/7 (29%)
Aidan O’Brien is the only trainer from this list who isn’t profitable to follow blind this century and with just one winner from the last 10 renewals this might not be a race he saves a horse for. The Gosdens have been very consistent in this race over time and Roger Varian has done well targeting the race with 2 of the last 3 winners coming from his yard.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century – GB bred unless stated):
- 2024 – Charyn (IRE)
- 2023 – Big Rock (FR)
- 2022 – Bayside Boy (IRE)
- 2021 – Baaeed
- 2020 – The Revenant
- 2019 – King Of Change
- 2018 – Roaring Lion (USA)
- 2017 – Persuasive (IRE)
- 2016 – Minding (IRE)
- 2015 – Solow
- 2014 – Charm Spirit (IRE)
- 2013 – Olympic Glory (IRE)
- 2012 – Excelebration (IRE)
- 2011 – Frankel
- 2010 – Poets Voice
- 2009 – Rip Van Winkle (IRE)
- 2008 – Ravens Pass (USA)
- 2007 – Ramonti (FR)
- 2006 – George Washington (IRE)
- 2005 – Starcraft (NZ)
- 2004 – Rakti
- 2003 – Falbrav (IRE)
- 2002 – Where Or When (IRE)
- 2001 – Summoner
- 2000 – Observatory (USA)