Why is it so hard to win the Champion Chase? I ask that because we’ve seen 10 of the last 13 odds-on favourites beaten.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see how straightforward finding the winner of this race might just be with and without considering price.
KEY TRENDS
- Age has no major bias in this race, but preference is 9-year-olds
- Second favourites outperform favourites
- Be wary of runners sent off 6/4 or shorter
- Preferable to hold an OR of 170 or more but at least 165 is expected
- Not required to have won last time out but last ran 31 to 60 days ago
- Previous winning Festival form must be respected
- Preferably has 8 or more runs over fences and 5 or more wins over fences
- Expected to be a multiple Grade 1 winner before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
10-year-olds are the only age that you could have made money backing blind, but only in the last decade. Strike rates and ROI’s aren’t massively different across the ages but 9-year-olds would take marginal preference
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 6/4 or shorter – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
It’s become a commonplace for favourites to be beaten, and many have been real shorties. Backing all runners with an SP of 6/4 or shorter shows a negative 44% ROI which is the same for favourites.
Second favourites account for half of the last 10 winners and who a 220% positive ROI. They have as many wins as favourites this century and show a £20 profit if backing blind, but that profit is only there thanks to the last decade.
RATINGS – (Three missing an OR from 2003, 2005, 2006)
- Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 15/22 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 10/22 (45%) & 5/10 (50%)
The bar for the winner OR has sat near the 170’s for some time but we’ve had three winners in the last decade who have taken this with a mark in the 150’s. Still, preference would have to be with horses who hold an OR of at least 165.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran between 31 and 60 days ago – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
There wouldn’t be many Grade 1’s let alone championship races where not winning last time out is potentially seen as a positive, but for clarity there have been 77 last time out winners producing 14 winners and despite showing a loss of £12.90 to a £1 stake, runners who placed 2nd or 3rd last time out account for 74 runners and have found only 8 winners with a loss of £22.80.
Most races that set this contest up are held between 31 and 60 days before this so that’s not going to help whittle down the field, but you do want to avoid horses who last ran between 61 and 90 days ago and those who ran 30 days ago or less. They have just 2 wins from 65 runners and a loss made of £49.50.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had PLACED at The Festival before – 19/25 (76%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Winners who had WON at The Festival before – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners of this race have already run at Cheltenham and really should have won here too. Backing all runners who had previously won at The Festival would show an 18% ROI in the last decade but although it finds the same 60% of winners this century, it shows an 11% loss this century.
The same is true if just looking at previous Festival placed horses but the losses are exaggerated so previous Festival winners would take preference. That sounds like an obvious thing to state, but with so many fancied runners not making it pay, highlighting the obvious isn’t always a positive.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 8 or FEWER hurdle runs – 20/25 (80%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 8 or MORE runs over fences – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 5 or MORE wins over fences – 22/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
It’s not often you’ll see a Champion Chaser who spent too much time over hurdles. Still, they’re expected to have significant chase experience with 8 or more runs to their name and 5 or more wins expected.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
Every winner has won at least a Grade 2 but you’re expected to already be a Grade 1 winner and a multiple Grade 1 winner at that.
RACE WINNERS RECORD (Winner/Runners this Century)
- Arkle – 9/21 (43%)
- Tingle Creek – 7/19 (36%)
- Dublin Chase (Tied Cottage up to 2018) – 3/15 (20%)
Arkle winners hold the best record but with Jango Baie favourite for the Gold Cup he won’t be winning this.
Il Etait Temps should take his chance with Tingle Creek winners the next best and Altior was the last to do that double.
The Dublin Chase used to be the tied cottage but has been moved. Still if we include the trial there has been no winner of both races since 2010 so that’s for Majborough to change this year.