Royal Ascot is a meeting which often throws up enormous shocks and surprises. Matty Sutcliffe is therefore a man to follow this week, and he picks out five selections to kickstart the regal festivities on day one.
Published: 2.40pm, Sunday, 16th June (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2.30pm Royal Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes – Flight Plan 50/1 0.5pt EW (4 places)
This year’s Queen Anne Stakes has a puzzling look to it, particularly now that Inspiral has been rerouted elsewhere. Charyn didn’t seem to stay the mile last season though admittedly three of those came behind the excellent Paddington. This season he’s broken his mile duck and backed it up in a G2 at Sandown, before being the only one to come out of the pack in the Lockinge to lay some sort of a glove on the runaway winner Audience. Plenty are of the opinion that was a solid effort, and initially I was too, but he was possibly flattered by the lack of showing from the principles including Big Rock, who also has to prove welfare having blown out badly there. Factor Cheval is a tricky customer to weigh up, as he was put in his place over C&D by Big Rock in the QEII last October, but outran his odds when winning the G1 Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. Then we’ve Audience who was clearly flattered by his win in the Lockinge but has to be respected given there’s every chance that could happen again.
To summarise, the market protagonists all have something to prove and it’s tricky to nail your colours to the mast with any of them, which perfectly plays into the nature of this column as there’s strongly plausibility to look further down the market. FLIGHT PLAN requires a bit of faith on his two starts this season but I’ve always been of the opinion there’s a smart horse in there. He blew out in the Lockinge when finding little for pressure, shaping as if nowhere near tuned up for the race. He was then sent to the G3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock and improved markedly for that seasonal return, but didn’t quite have the speed to match those better suited to seven furlongs and weekend in the last few strides having initially made headway when angled out for a run. He was also giving away weight to whole field so can be marked up further. Now, I’m under no illusion that he has to step up on those bits of form, but he still didn’t look quite fit last time and I imagine he’ll be absolutely primed this time around.
He was a striking winner of the Dullingham Park Stakes at Leopardstown last Autumn when making all under Danny Tudhope, kicking clear in impressive fashion on the turn and looking very much like an improving horse. Again, he’d need to improve on that form to take a Queen Anne, but he wouldn’t need to improve much on his half a length second to Poker Face in a listed race at Pontefract last July, where he was three lengths in front of Witch Hunter. Poker Face backed that win up with two subsequent group successes, and retuned this season with a one length second to Charyn at Sandown, again with Witch Hunter in behind. Though I’m not suggesting we take that literally, Flight Plan still appears overpriced on that individual piece of form and he’s bred to improve with age.
3.05pm Royal Ascot – Coventry – Rashabar 66/1 0.5pt EW (5 places)
I was about to make RASHABAR a strong bet in the Woodcote at Epsom and had written an essay’s worth of reasoning, only to not be declared. There was further insult added to injury when the winner was Teej A, who was flattered by her inside draw at Chester when beaten Rashabar two lengths who was unsuited by being held up from the widest stall.
However, on the plus side, Epsom’s loss is Ascot’s gain as the 66/1 available for Rashabar is far better than the opening show of 10/1 pre-decs at Epsom. The son of Holy Roman Emperor made a promising debut over five furlongs at Newbury in April – a race won by subsequent Coventry Stakes winner Berkshire Shadow in 2021 – when shaping as if very much needing a step up in trip. The winner was a highly regarded two year for Richard Hannon ridden by Sean Levey, so given Levey told connections of Rashabar to work back from the Coventry after Chester, that can only bode well too. While Hawaiian didn’t give his running next time out, the second (Star Anthem) bolted up next time out beating a subsequent winner (who then beat another subsequent winner!) and the 4th also won next time out, before the second reversed that form in the Listed Marygate at York.
Another piece of form from that race which suggests Rashabar is overpriced is the subsequent form of the 5th Tropical Storm, who was second at Newmarket next time out to a smart sort in The Actor. The third from that race, Al Qudra, bolted up next time out and is now third favourite at 9/1 for the Coventry Stakes, and in fourth there was Mr Chaplin who also bolted in next time out and is now 20/1 for this race. Two year old formlines can be dangerous to take as gospel as they all improve at different rates, but when there’s a plethora of valuable and logical substance, it’s impossible to ignore, such is the case with Rashabar.
I’ve no doubt he was the best horse in the race at Chester though it’s an added bonus to see the winner go in next time out, and connections have been no strangers to having an outsider bely their odds this season given Kathmandu’s head second in the French Guineas at 45/1 last month.
3.45pm – King Charles III Stakes – Seven Questions 25/1 1pt EW (4 places)
Owners Victorious Racing took this with a three year old coming off the back of a third in Group company at Haydock, and I’m banking on lightning striking twice with SEVEN QUESTIONS, who’s already been kind to this column twice this season with a 33/1 win and a 16/1 place last time out.
The son of Kodiac benefited from the fitting of first time cheek-pieces in the G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket after a barren spell in Meydan over the winter, digging deep to just get up in the newly equipped aids. The form has worked out well with the 7th, Mitbaahy, winning the G2 Greenlands Stakes next time out beating Regional who’s the 6/1 second favourite in here. The 5th, Kerdos, reversed the form when winning the Temple Stakes with Beautiful Diamond back in 5th. Seven Questions has to eek out more on that evidence, but he lost his race in the prelims which is again a concern, though connections have already outlined plans to prevent that from happening again. He actually did remarkably well to get back up for third when initially weakening toward the rear, just getting up past Asfoora who’s installed as the third favourite in here.
Seven Questions is wildly overpriced on collateral form with the market principles, and the return to a sounder surface may aid his cause. With his three year old allowances, he’s bang there on ratings and is from the family of the excellent Pearl Secret, who was beaten a length in this race in 2015 after winning the Temple Stakes.
4.25pm – St James’s Palace Stakes – Almaqam 25/1 1pt EW (3 places)
ALMAQAM was raced just once as a two-year-old, running green but staying on promisingly under hands and heels. The son of Lope De Vega returned with a comfortable success in a Yarmouth maiden in a race won twice by Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum in recent years, latterly with the talented Embesto. He bettered that effort when bolting up in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown next time out, immediately booking his ticket to Royal Ascot.
Connections have swerved the easier option of the G3 Hampton Court in favour of this stiffer test of credentials for Almaqam, who although is priced accordingly behind two Guineas winners, doesn’t have much to find on collateral form with them on a particular piece of form from his Heron Stakes route, The horse four lengths back in third, Sons and Lovers, was five lengths behind Haatem on seasonal debut in the Craven Stakes who subsequently was only beaten three lengths behind Notable Speech and Rosallion in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas when setting the race up for the two off the pace, then only beaten a head behind Rosallion in the Irish equivalent.
Interestingly, the Heron Stakes has thrown up many a Royal Ascot contender including My Prospero, who was agonisingly beaten a neck in the St James’ Palace next time out. Another noteworthy winner was Mostahdaf, who although was beaten (excuses applied) in the St James Palace next time out, proved his quality by winning the Prince Of Wales Stakes last season enroute to success in the G1 Juddmonte. King Of Comedy won the Heron Stakes in 2019 before being beaten a neck in the St James Palace, and Without Connections was able to complete the Heron Stakes/St James Palace double in 2018, who also made his 3yo debut a winning one in a Yarmouth Maiden. Also an honourable mention to 2015 winner Consort, who was third behind Gleneagles in the St James Palace after Sandown. Almaqam’s RPR of 114 was the joint second highest winning rating in the Heron Stakes (My Prospero 117) in the last decade, so he’s more than entitled to take his chance in this coveted group one contest and given his form ties in with the market principles, this exciting, unexposed son of Lope De Vega looks a shade overpriced here.
5:05 Royal Ascot – Ascot Stakes – Zanndabad 6/1 2pt WIN NAP
Perhaps not the most unobvious selection you’ll see from all week, but by far the most confident one of the first day. ZANNDABAD has been slightly frustrating since joining Tony Martin from Francis-Henri Graffard, coming up short in six hurdles and often suffering in running from rear on the level. It was a case of the latter in the Chester Cup last time out, having travelled strongly in rear and struggling to angle out past beaten horses on the turn for home. He flew home for third, clocking the quickest final furlong by some way, and a 2lbs subsequent rise is unlikely to faze him with the race undoubtedly rto be run to suit. William Buick is a positive jockey booking given he’s won the race twice in the last three seasons, and is 3/1 for Tony Martin (not on the license of Zannabad due to doping ban, but likely still training them).
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