The opening day of Royal Ascot sees three Group races, including three Group 1s, start proceedings with the closing three races all run at 1m2f or further.
Every trainer, jockey, owner and punter would love to kick of the week with a winner, so I’ve compiled a cheat sheet to help identify the patterns shown on the first day of the biggest week in flat racing.
Queen Anne Stakes
- ALL of the last 10 winners were either multiple Group 1 winners or had won none (5 & 5)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at a mile at least twice (the other hadn’t won at a mile)
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran within the last 38 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 114+
- 7 of the last 10 winners were 4yos (5 of the last 6)
- 7 of the last 10 winners has 11 or more flat runs
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won at Ascot (2 hadn’t run here)
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from the Lockinge (3 won both)
- 6 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner
- 5 of the last 10 winners were favourite (26% ROI)
“Either a multiple Group 1 winner or no Group 1 wins, should have multiple wins at a mile, last ran inside 40 days and holds an OR of 114 but not necessarily the highest rated runner.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2025 – Docklands
- 2024 – Charyn
- 2023 – Triple Time
- 2022 – Baaeed
- 2021 – Palace Pier
- 2020 – Circus Maximus
- 2019 – Lord Glitters
- 2018 – Accidental Agent
- 2017 – Ribchester
- 2016 – Tepin
Coventry Stakes
- ALL of the last 10 winners had no more than 2 runs
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race
- 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out (heavy loss maker blind as most tick this box)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 32 days
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run already raced at 6f
- 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten
- 4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by Ryan Moore (24% ROI)
“Will have had no more than 2 runs, probably won last time out and last ran 32 days ago or less. Has run at 6 furlongs, preferably unbeaten and respect Ryan Moore runners.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2025 – Gstaad
- 2024 – Rashabar
- 2023 – River Tiber
- 2022 – Bradsell
- 2021 – Berkshire Shadow
- 2020 – Nando Parrado
- 2019 – Arizona
- 2018 – Calyx
- 2017 – Rajasinghe
- 2016 – Caravaggio
King Charles III Stakes
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least a third of their races
- 7 of the last 10 winners had raced at Ascot (5 had at least 2 runs)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had either 0 or 1 win that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 runs that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner (last 11 placed Top 5 though)
- 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off as second-favourite
- 6 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
“Should have won at least a third of their races, ideally has raced at Ascot and more than once. Has no more than 1 win this season and has 2 or 3 runs this season. Unlikely to have won last time out.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2025 – American Affair
- 2024 – Asfoora
- 2023 – Bradsell
- 2022 – Nature Strip
- 2021 – Oxted
- 2020 – Battaash
- 2019 – Blue Point
- 2018 – Blue Point
- 2017 – Lady Aurelia
- 2016 – Profitable
St James’s Palace Stakes
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won that season (only 3 unbeaten)
- 9 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT run at Ascot (only 1 had won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26 days (other two came from 2,000 Guineas)
- 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 118+
“Will have already won this season and placed Top 2 last time out. Probably has NOT run at Ascot and will be sent off 4/1 or shorter. Has 2 or 3 runs this season and last ran within the last 26 days.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Rosallion
- 2023 – Paddington
- 2022 – Coroebus
- 2021 – Poetic Flare
- 2020 – Palace Pier
- 2019 – Circus Maximus
- 2018 – Without Parole
- 2017 – Barney Roy
- 2016 – Galileo Gold
- 2015 – Gleneagles
Ascot Stakes
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the trip (7 of those more than once)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had either 3 or 4 career flat wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-7 or 17-19
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-3 and 9-10 (inclusive)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run 2 or more times that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6+
- 6 of the last 10 winners had run under NH Rules that calendar year
- 6 of the last 10 winners had not won a race that season
“Expected to have won at 2m4f before now and preferably more than once. Has 3 or 4 career flat wins, ideally drawn in stalls 1-7 or 17-19 and carrying between 9-3 and 9-10.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2025 – Ascending
- 2024 – Pledgeofallegiance
- 2023 – Ahorsewithnoname
- 2022 – Coltrane
- 2021 – Reshoun
- 2020 – Coeur De Lion
- 2019 – The Grand Visir
- 2018 – Lagostovegas
- 2017 – Thomas Hobson
- 2016 – Jennies Jewel
Wolferton Stakes
- No winner from Stall 1-4 since 2010 (8 favourites beaten from here including joints)
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had at least one run that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had between 3 and 5 career flat wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a race that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners were NOT first or second favourite
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run at Ascot
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 110+ (others were 107 and 102 twice)
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran 39 days ago or less
- 7 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner (however backing the highest blind shows a 21% ROI)
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at 10 furlongs
“NOT drawn in stalls 1-4, did NOT win last time out and probably hasn’t won this season. Has 3-5 career flat wins, is aged 4 or 5, has run at Ascot but isn’t the first or second favourite.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2025 – Haatem
- 2024 – Israr
- 2023 – Royal Champion
- 2022 – Dubai Future
- 2021 – Juan Elcano
- 2020 – Mountain Angel
- 2019 – Addeybb
- 2018 – Monarchs Glen
- 2017 – Snoano
- 2016 – Sir Isaac Newton
Copper Horse Stakes (introduced in 2020)
- All of the 6 winners were drawn in stall 7 or higher
- 5 of the 6 winners were rated 99+
- 5 of the 6 winners had placed Top 3 last time out
- 5 of the 6 winners carried 9-4 or more
- 4 of the 6 winners had not won on the flat that season
- 4 of the 6 winners had NOT run at 14 furlongs
- 4 of the 6 winners were trained by The Gosdens or Willie Mullins
- 3 of the 6 winners had run at Ascot
- 3 of the 6 winners were aged 6
“Will be drawn in stall 7 or higher, rated 99 or higher, placed Top 3 last time out and probably has NOT run at 14 furlongs but if they have they should be unbeaten at that trip.”
Last 6 Winners
- 2025 – French Master
- 2024 – Belloccio
- 2023 – Vauban
- 2022 – Get Shirty
- 2021 – Amtiyaz
- 2020 – Fujaira Prince