Matty Sutcliffe enjoyed an incredible day on Tuesday, securing an 80/1 winner courtesy of Rashabar in the Coventry Stakes (oh, and he got engaged too!). He has five more tips to follow up his enormous profit from that day one quintet.
Published: 1.45pm, Monday, 17th June (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2:30 Royal Ascot – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) – Mighty Eriu 20/1 0.5pt EW (5 places PaddyPower/Betfair)
Gavin Cromwell has a 100% strike rate at Royal Ascot, with Snellen taking last year’s Chesham Stakes and Quick Suzy taking the 2021 Queen Mary Stakes, highlighting what an incredibly smart operator he is. I’ve not been all that impressed with any of the two years old fillies this season and I don’t think there’s a stand out candidate in this years Queen Mary, but Cromwell’s MIGHTY ERIU has to be considered for a number of reasons, not least because of her handlers record here.
The daughter of Inns Of Court made a promising debut at the Curragh this month over six furlongs when finishing a two length second to Blackbeard’s brother Tunbridge Wells, who already had the benefit of a run. Mighty Eriu, now in the colours of Qatar Racing, posed a threat to the eventual winner when travelling best of all two furlongs out, and may have slightly edged in front before Tunbridge Wells outstayed the filly in the finish.
The drop back to five furlongs proved the oracle for Quick Suzy in the 2021 renewal, and that may be the case again for Mighty Eriu who weakened in the furlong after initially showing smart speed, so she should have no issue over this sharper trip. This quick ground will be very much in her favour, and given five of last ten winners have come from stalls twenty or higher, she’s well drawn in stall twenty four to maintain Gavin Cromwell’s excellent record here.
3:05 Royal Ascot – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo) Illinois 3pt WIN 9/4 NAP
Before you read the below, I should note that I began writing this prior to final decs, and since Ryan Moore has chosen to ride ILLINOIS, his price has considerably shortened into favouritism. I wasn’t expecting to play him at 9/4, but given he’s the choice of Moore he’s landed NAP territory and my suspicions that he was terribly overpriced prior to decs has at least come to fruition.
The return to a right-handed track will suit Illinois, who looked to race awkwardly throughout the Lingfield Derby Trial in May, hanging right off the turn and carrying his head in an unruly manner to the right under pressure. A trait like that in a horse isn’t what you’d like to see going into Ascot, but if he’s able to brake handy and grab a position on the rail from stall five, then he should be far more comfortable throughout the race.
He’s often shaped as if each trip is the minimum for him, firstly striding away in promising fashion at on debut the Curragh as a two year old, before faring well from the front in the G1 Criterium in Saint-Cloud, staying on once outpaced. That race worked out well with the winner finishing third in the Derby and the 4th/5th both developing into smart colts this season, and then it was a similar scenario at Leopardstown in the Ballysax when a beaten favourite in third, staying on despite being no match for the first two.
Though perhaps underwhelming at Lingfield, the winner, Ambiente Friendly, was just two lengths behind City Of Troy in the Derby pulling clear of the third, and the third (Meydaan) who was three lengths behind Illinois won nicely in a listed contest since, and is somehow priced up shorter than the O’Brien inmate.
I’m also of the opinion that he’s been running on the wrong ground so far. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, his pedigree is full of winners on quicker ground and I don’t think the soft ground has shone him in a positive light so far. It was the quickest he encountered at Lingfield and seemed to bounce off it prior to hanging, so this even quicker going should help and visually he shapes as if this extra two furlongs will only bring out further improvement.
3:45 Royal Ascot – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Magical Sunset 33/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
I’ve not a clue what they’ve been doing with MAGICAL SUNSET throughout her career, and her last two runs perfectly encapsulate the circus of the Amo Racing carousel that’s been to the fore of the Ascot build up/flat season in general. No one can quite seem to weigh her up, she’s won twice on good to firm ground over six furlongs as a two year old, once on heavy going and another on soft over seven furlongs at Doncaster.
I actually thought one of her best performances last season was in the Sandrigham Stakes, where she burst out of her pack on the far side to finish the first in her group, with the seven ahead of her all coming down the near-side. That confirmed the suspicion that she’s fine at the mile after her fast finishing fourth over seven furlongs in the Surrey Stakes at Epsom, and while she was beaten ten lengths over a mile on reappearance this season, I’m not entirely convinced that bottomless ground is what she wants particularly as she’s ageing, so I’m happy enough to draw a line through that.
She fared well over seven furlongs behind Gregorian who’s not gone unsupported in the market for this race, and meets that one on better terms. She had absolutely no chanced over six furlongs at the Curragh last time out, and now she’s back over the mile on quick ground I think we’ll see her in a much better light. She’s overpriced on multiple bits of form, particularly with Breege who she beat at Goodwood last season and given these Fillies & Mares contests often favour those held up in rear with a quick turn of foot, she’ll be suited well to these conditions should David Egan position her well early from stall three.
4:25 Royal Ascot – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Alflaila 10/1 1pt WIN
It’s been either boom or bust for Auguste Rodin since his two-year-old career, and even though he backed up his Epsom Derby win in the Irish equivalent, it still wasn’t vintage performance and he must be taken on after his promising reappearance to White Birch in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month. You can argue that the ground was on the easier side for him there and he’ll be much more at home on this sounder surface, but he was also beaten a mile here in the King George Stakes last season and regardless of the fact he could easily prove a class apart, there’s enough chinks in his armour to confidently play against him.
Inspiral is similar in that respect, and the decision to swerve the easier option of the Wolferton Stakes makes AFLAILA a seriously interesting contender here. Owen Burrows is a master at getting these older types primed from an injury/layoff, with the likes of Hokum and Anmaat both picking up valuable contests from a long layoff.
He’s always been a smart sort, but Alfalila took his form to new heights last season when taking the G2 York Stakes on seasonal debut last year beating evens favourite My Prospero a shade cosily, before backing that up when given too much to do behind Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes.
He’s three from three when fresh, a course winner and thrives off quicker going. Should the principles fail to run right up to their best and the pace be a quick one, then Alflaila will be travelling strongly in behind them and can pick them off late on.
5:05 Royal Ascot – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Thunder Ball 33/1 1pt EW 6 places
As ever in these notoriously tricky handicaps, form is intertwined in abundance so it can often pay to delve into the trends and form a stronger opinion from them. Below, I’ve noted some information of the winners in the last ten renewals split into their rating, racing weight and cloth number. As well, it’s interesting to note course form and how their season prior had panned out.
Trends
Rating: 103, 96, 94, 100, 103, 99, 100, 105, 101, 101.
Weight: 9-5, 9-1, 8-6, 9-1, 9-3, 9-1, 9-0, 9-5, 9-3, 9-1.
Cloth: 9, 27, 28, 16, 13, 21, 20, 11, 15, 12.
To pick them apart, there was two winners who each had the rating of 103, 101, 100, and each winner was rated 94 or higher.
Horses with a racing weight of 9-1 won four renewals, 9-5/9-3 won two renewals, and there was no winner carrying more than 9-5, or less than 8-6.
In terms of the cloth numbers, no horse rating lower than nine in the weights took the contest, and the very bottom weights aren’t ones to focus on either.
In terms of seasonal form, races such as the Spring Mile, Spring Cup, Lincoln and Victoria Cup had all produced winners, but perhaps course form is more important given 7/10 had previous course form, 5/10 had previously raced in the Brittania, and both the Victoria Cup and Balmoral had twice unearthed winners.
As expected, there’s several strong qualifiers, but perhaps none more so than THUNDER BALL who’s one of just two horses weighted in the ratings to carry 9-1 (though claimer takes off 3lbs). The son of Night Of Thunder contested both the Lincoln and the Spring Cup this season (both races throwing up winners in the past), firstly faring best of the front runners in the Lincoln before backing that effort up in the Spring Cup, posting the second highest RPR (104) in the race giving away weight to all in front of him. Both the third and first have come out and finished 3rd/2nd to Sonny Liston at Newbury last month, who’s installed as the second favourite (time of writing) which certainly makes Thunder Ball overpriced.
Admittedly, he has to bounce back from a flat run at Newmarket last month but that came over a potentially inadequate seven furlongs, and he’d bombed out over the same C&D last season. Another reason why he’s of interest is his fourth to Docklands in the Brittania at 66/1 here last season, a race which as noted above has thrown up five of the last ten winners of this race. Though by Night Of Thunder, that effort came on good to firm ground, as did his 7th in the Cambridgeshire last season so I don’t think this sounder surface will pose an issue. Stall three mightn’t be a gift, but the far-side racers have won this before (Jimi Hendrix last season) and he can make a bold bid from the front with the blinkers returning for the first time since 3rd and 2nd in them in 2022.
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