It’s day three of Royal Ascot on Thursday 20th June and our Value tipster Matty Sutcliffe is back with his best bets across a hugely competitive day’s racing at the Berkshire racecourse…
Published: 1.52pm, Tuesday, 18th June (Prices correct at time of publishing)
2:30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Loom 25/1 1pt EW (Paddy Power/Betfair 4 places)
This doesn’t look a vintage renewal of the Norfolk Stakes, with Little Big Bear’s brother Whistlejacket the obvious candidate for a yard that’s won this twice in recent years. While he could be every bit as good as his brother, his form so far has come on softer ground, so he looks worth taking on incase this forecast sounder surface catches him out.
Outside of Whistlejacket, several of the original market principles were declared either in the Windsor Castle Or Coventry Stakes which has significantly weakened this contest, but LOOM has stood his ground for Richard Fahey who’s knocked up an excellent record in this contest in recent years. The North Yorkshire based yard had a 66/1 second in the race last year, before taking the 2022 and 2021 renewals with 50/1 and 14/1 shots, formerly with one who’d won at Ripon over five furlongs prior. They also had the neck second in 2019 with Ventura Rebel at 16/1, and a three length fifth with It Don’t Come Easy in 2017.
Although beaten on debut at York, he took a strong keen hold when forcing the pace with another, setting the race up for those sitting in behind. However, the way in which he travelled to the two pole was impressive, showing plenty of speed before weakening late on. He shaped as if this drop back in trip will suit, and duly obliged when fairly bolting up at Ripon over five. Though he still took a keen grip, he was able to find cover early on which helped and once in the clear, he quickened up smartly to battle on past the well backed Wathnan Racing favourite. Visually, it was a smart performance as not only did he overcome a keen hold and find a gear, he’s proven in a battle which will benefit him strongly coming into this contest.
His sire provided the winner of this race in 2016 with Prince Of Lir (who also sired the 2020 winner) and if those two runs have knocked some freshness out of him, he’ll improve considerably at some stage, particularly if granted a strong pace.
3:05 King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Autumn Winter 20/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
It’s no secret that the majority Aidan O’Brien’s horses have needed the run this season, and that seemed the case for the well-bred AUTUMN WINTER, who was turned over a 4/9F under Ryan Moore in April. A mark of 86 for this handicap debut doesn’t look a gift on the bare face of things, but in all of his three runs so far he’s ran over the wrong trip and ground.
After travelling well at Leopardstown last time out, he looked uncomfortable on the heavy going, bouncing up and down as opposed to galloping with his head down to the line. It was a similar case on heavy ground at the Curragh toward the back end of the year when a well backed 6/4F under Killian Hennessy, staying on after initially becoming outpaced two furlongs out. Interestingly, he was sent off shorter than stablemate Chantilly who was three lengths in behind, and is now 12lbs better off on that performance. So while he doesn’t look obvious thrown in, there’s enough reason to suggest he can uphold that form with Chantilly who tops the market.
As mentioned, I do think he’s been running over the wrong trip/ground so far. By Galileo, as was O’Brien’s winner of this in 2019, he’s a three parts brother to Jeff Koons (by Frankel) who’s top two RPR’s (106/105) came over 1m3f/1m4f in Doha this winter. Jeff Koons was favoured by quicker going, as was their dam Quidura who won multiple group races in America on firmer going despite being by Dubawi whose progeny often prefer softer going. Quidura herself is from a stamina laden pedigree, German bred on the dam-side, with the majority improve as they age. So, while Autumn Winter has to undoubtedly step up to make a mockery of his mark, if these conditions prove to be his optimum then there’s every chance he could be 10lbs well in at least.
3:45 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) – Higher Leaves 33/1 ( generally) 0.5pt EW (50/1 4 places William Hill)
This renewal of the Ribblesdale has a fascinating look to it, with a plethora of unexposed/well bred fillies, none other than Diamond Rain who took a Listed contest at Newbury last time out in bloodless fashion, drawing clear from a subsequent winner. Kalpana also brings smart form having made a mockery of her mark of 78 at Newmarket in April, though it was slightly concerning to see her beaten a 4/6F behind one who has since finished last of eight at York in the Musidora at 8/11F.
Then we’ve the likes of You Got To Me, Forest Fairy and Rubies And Red on a comeback mission from their performances in the Oaks, and their form is tied in closely with Port Fairy and Danielle. I don’t think we’ve a standout candidate, and my attention is drawn to those toward to bottom of the market, in particular HIGHER LEAVES for Henry De Bromhead. The Waterford based yard are a dab hand with these fillies and mares on the flat, and Higher Leaves has the potential to become a smart sort, particularly now on better ground. The daughter of Golden Horn was beaten four lengths behind Oaks heroine Ezeliya on debut at Cork last Autumn, staying on well from rear before putting up a similar performance at Leopardstown.
She made a successful reappearance at Dundalk in April while still not looking the finished article, hanging right off the bend and wandering around a tad run front. She still battled on gamely past the beautifully bred 8/13F, and wasn’t disgraced next time out at Naas where she was wide throughout early on and perhaps made too much use of herself in the middle part of the race. She shaped there as if stepping up in trip would suit which is backed up by the stamina on the dam side, and this quicker ground should also suit. While she’s got a bit to find on the figures, Shane Foley takes the ride when was successful on Magical Lagoon in the penultimate running of this race and is one of just two Ascot entries for Henry De Bromhead.
5:05 Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Arctic Thunder 25/1 1pt EW 4 places
It’s been a decade since Andrew Balding last won the Britannia, and ARCTIC THUNDER can provide his handler with a welcome winner. The son of Night Of Thunder has been favourably birthed in stall thirty, as the far-side have dominated this race in recent renewals. He made a winning turf/handicap debut last month over seven furlongs here, posting a career best in a manner that looked more comfortable than the eventual winning margin. He did well to take that race as it was a steadily run affair with just five runners, and he quickened up nicely after taking a keen grip, pulling three lengths clear with the second who subsequently finished five lengths behind current Britannia favourite Qirat.
The return to a bigger field where he can travel off the pace with plenty of cover will suit, and he’s still potentially well treated off a mark of 92 given he was only beaten two lengths by 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in February, with the second also now rated 98. He’s still completely unexposed on turf and although by Night Of Thunder, he’s out on an Exceed and Excel mare with fast ground winners on her side of the equine tree, and his low action should be of use on this quicker going.
5:40 Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) – Bellum Justum 14/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Waipiro won this race last season having not quite stayed in the Derby after initially making good headway, and BELLUM JUSTUM could repeat that feat. The son of Sea The Stars produced a career best in the Listed Blue Riband Stakes over this distance, and shaped well in the Epsom Classic, travelling better than most on the turn for home but didn’t quite see out the 1m4f trip.
Now dropping back in distance to 1m2f where he had a subsequent G3 winner a length in behind, he can bounce back to form from a handy draw. His two best efforts on RPR’s as a two-year-old came on good to firm going, latterly beating the subsequent Sandy Lane winner Inisherin, so these conditions should also play into his strengths.
6:15 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Gorak 20/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
GORAK was a bet for us last time out when agonisingly beaten a short head by Carrytheone, and I can’t understand why Divine Libra is half the price given they’ve both gone up a pound for their efforts. The draw is perhaps a shade off putting, but stall two won this in 2022 and far-side runners fared well in last seasons renewal, so I’ll just have to hope that the draw won’t prove as much a hindrance.
Gorak was beaten six lengths in this contest last season, finishing first in his group of six under James McDonald and is now 9lbs lower, coming into the race in top form. His penultimate run at Newmarket could hardly have worked out any better, and he won’t be fazed by the firmer going.
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