Dave Young’s series of trends articles for Royal Ascot continues, as he looks at day three of the royal meeting. The Thursday features potentially the pinnacle of the entire week with the Gold Cup over 2m4f.
Norfolk Stakes
- NONE of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite (last winning favourite was 2008)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish or USA Bred
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race
- 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1+
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from the lowest 4 stalls (considering non-runners)
“Last winning favourite was in 2008 so look for runners priced 8/1+ who have already won a race, bonus if they’re drawn in the lowest 4 stalls and probably Irish or USA bred.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Shareholder
- 2023 – Valiant Force
- 2022 – The Ridler
- 2021 – Perfect Power
- 2020 – The Lir Jet
- 2019 – Aali
- 2018 – Shang Shang Shang
- 2017 – Sioux Nation
- 2016 – Prince Of Lir
- 2015 – Waterloo Bridge
King George V Stakes
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9-3 or less
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite (One winning joint favourite)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were rated between 90-94
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season (one hadn’t run)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season (one hadn’t run)
- 5 of the last 10 winners came from the highest 3 stalls (considering non-runners)
“Unlikely to be the favourite, look for horses rated 90-94 and preferably carrying 9-3 or less. Should have won this season and respect runners from the highest 3 stalls.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Going The Distance
- 2023 – Desert Hero
- 2022 – Secret State
- 2021 – Surefire
- 2020 – Hukum
- 2019 – South Pacific
- 2018 – Baghdad
- 2017 – Atty Persse
- 2016 – Gold Mount
- 2015 – Space Age (IRE)
Ribblesdale Stakes
- 9 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 94+ (4 were 103+)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had lost 2 or more races
- 8 of the last 10 winners were trained by John Gosden or Aidan O’Brien
- 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 3 last time out
- 7 of the last 10 favourites finished top 2 in this race (2 won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 6 of the last 10 winners were first or second favourite (2 favourites)
“Will have an OR of 94 or higher, has been beaten 2 or more times, trained by Aidan O’Brien or The Gosdens and finished top 3 last time out.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Port Fairy
- 2023 – Warm Heart
- 2022 – Magical Lagoon
- 2021 – Loving Dream
- 2020 – Frankly Darling
- 2019 – Star Catcher
- 2018 – Magic Wand
- 2017 – Coronet
- 2016 – Even Song
- 2015 – Curvy
Gold Cup
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 117+
- 8 of the last 10 winners were first or second favourite (6 favourites)
- 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were trained by John Gosden or Aidan O’Brien
“Should have won this season and likely to be unbeaten, ideally has an OR of 117+, in the first two in the betting with preference to favourites.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Kyprios
- 2023 – Courage Mon Ami
- 2022 – Kyprios
- 2021 – Subjectivist
- 2020 – Stradivarius
- 2019 – Stradivarius
- 2018 – Stradivarius
- 2017 – Big Orange
- 2016 – Order Of St George
- 2015 – Trip To Paris
Britannia Stakes
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9-3 or less
- 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season (one had not run)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or 4 runs that season (one other had none and one had 2)
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 10-19
- 8 of the last 10 winners were rated between 90 and 95
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a race that season
“Carries 9-3 or less and has had 3 or 4 runs this season or hasn’t been beaten, look for those drawn in stalls 10 to 19 with preference to those with an OR of 90-95.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Mickley
- 2023 – Docklands
- 2022 – Thesis
- 2021 – Perotto
- 2020 – Khaloosy
- 2019 – Biometric
- 2018 – Ostilio
- 2017 – Bless Him
- 2016 – Defrocked
- 2015 – War Envoy
Hampton Court Stakes
- ALL of the last 10 winners had an OR of 103+
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run within the last 47 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run at 10 furlongs
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a race that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were first or second favourite (2 favourites)
“Will have an OR of 103+ and ran in the last 47 days. Likely to have won a race this season and look to those inside the first two in the betting with preference to 2nd favourites.”
Last 10 Winners
- 2024 – Jayarebe
- 2023 – Waipiro
- 2022 – Claymore
- 2021 – Mohaafeth
- 2020 – Russian Emperor
- 2019 – Sangarius
- 2018 – Hunting Horn
- 2017 – Benbatl
- 2016 – Hawkbill
- 2015 – Time Test
Buckingham Palace Stakes (cancelled from 2015 to 2019)
- ALL of the last 5 winners were 4yos
- 4 of the last 5 winners were priced 12/1+
- 4 of the last 5 winners had won no more once at 7 furlongs
- 4 of the last 5 winners had been beaten that season (the other hadn’t run)
- 4 of the last 5 winners were drawn stall 24+ (the other was drawn in 2)
“The race was cancelled from 2015-2019 but of the 5 renewals since; will be aged 4, has no more than one win at 7f, has been beaten this season and drawn in stall 24+.”
Last 5 Winners
- 2024 – English Oak
- 2023 – Witch Hunter
- 2022 – Inver Park
- 2021 – Highfield Princess
- 2020 – Motakhayyel