The Royal Hunt Cup is one of the most notoriously tricky handicaps to decipher across the whole flat calendar. With 30 thoroughbreds racing in tandem spread across the Ascot straight, the proverbial needle in the haystack applies here with unsurprisingly just one winning (joint) favourite in the last decade.
The field generally attracts a variety of horses such as unexposed handicappers, Listed horses dropping in class, Group horses in the making or the older brigade dropping in the weights, and this years’ renewal looks one of the most open we’ve seen in a while.
Market Leaders
My Cloud
Star miler Palace Pier’s half brother My Cloud has taking a while to unearth the ability reflective of his pedigree. He was a beaten 4/9F on debut at Newcastle on debut as a three year old last term, and it was a similar story at Redcar later that year after a 225 day layoff. It looked as if he was becoming something of the runt of the Beach Frolic litter, but there was a glimmer of optimism when bolting up back at Newcastle in no nonsense fashion last October.
The Blue Point colt hasn’t looked back since, landing a C&D apprentice handicap off a mark of 80 on seasonal debut this term in good style having made smart headway from rear, picking up sharply to win going away by three lengths. A revised mark of 90 wouldn’t have been enough to see him get in here, so connections took him to Newbury for a competitive 0-105 handicap which he landed by a head, staying on strongly after a laboured beginning. The second has won since and the third wasn’t beaten far in a competitive handicap at Epsom, so this revised mark of 95 looks workable and he fits the profile of a typical progressive Royal Hunt Cup winner.
The Liffey
The ante-post gamble of the race is The Liffey, whose price has plummeted from 100/1 to 13/2 with the Ryan Moore factor undoubtedly playing its part. The well bred No Nay Never gelding is entirely unexposed after just four starts, having won on debut as a two year old for Aidan O’Brien and bounced back from a nine length defeat in group three company with a comfortable front running success at Listowel.
He was gelded subsequently and switched yards to Joseph, and he ran an encouraging race on debut in listed company when staying on well at Naas over an inadequate seven furlongs, with the winner following up in group three company next time out. Naturally, he’s likely to come on for that effort and a mark of 98 could well underestimate him stepping back up to a mile.
Greek Order
Greek Order has also been well backed of late, and the son of Kingman is no stranger to a market mover having been well backed in the 2023 Cambridgeshire for the Juddmonte and the Charlton’s, but he got going a touch too late under Oisin Murphy. After a credible third in listed company, he was shipped off to American for William Mott but failed to improve, and has since switched yards to Michael Bell to race back on these shores.
He’s off the same mark as he was when second in the Cambridgeshire, and given his proven experience in big field handicaps, he shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Bullet Point
Bullet Point’s draw in stall two puts him miles away from the three ahead of him in the market so day one will give us clues as to where might be the most favourable. He’s not too dissimilar to My Cloud in the respect that he was a backwards three year old, but since being gelded his record reads 4111 and he put in a career best effort on seasonal debut over a mile at Newmarket last time out. William Haggas has kept him fresh for this contest since given his mark of 97 could easily be workable, and there’s little reason when he can’t continue this upward curve for all good to firm ground poses a new test to him.
Qirat
Qirat has played the bridesmaid throughout his career, finishing runner up on four occasions including his latest three starts, latterly in the Victoria Cup when beaten a nose at 5/1 favourite. The Showcasing gelding has been destined to win a race of this nature for some time, having been sent off joint favourite for the Britannia last season after landing a 52k Goodwood contest on handicap debut, and he was second again to Volterra here in the Challenge Cup later last year. Volterra was well backed in for this prior to not being declared, and it’s more than likely we’ll see Qirat on the premises with first time blinkers equipped to eek out further progress against one with potentially more upsides.
Outsiders To Consider
Ancient Rome
Charles Hills often comes up with a surprise at the Royal meeting such as Khaadem in last years QEII, and it would come as no surprise to see Ancient Rome show up well at a big price here. The War Front gelding was placed twice in group one company as a two year old for Andrew Fabre and while he didn’t go on as expected, the switch to Charles Hills yard saw him land a 52k handicap at Goodwood off a mark of 105 in a shade cosy manner.
He backed that up over a mile at Keeneland when taking a group three, and was far from disgraced thereafter. He was second to the now 114 rated Quddwah over C&D in the G2 Summer Mile, and hit the frame in both the Arlington Million Stakes and the Darley Stakes, latterly four lengths behind the Lockinge winner Lead Artist. He’s been dropped 8lbs since then in three efforts, but given how unexposed he is in handicaps, this may have been the plan off a more than workable mark.
Fox’s Legacy
Several of the large consortium to have left Sir Michael Stoute’s yard over the winter have improved for the yard switch, including Fox’s Legacy who took the Suffolk Stakes Handicap at Newmarket in a comfortable manner on yard debut for Andrew Balding. Given he beat Bopedro there, his form ties in with some of the protagonists and with his peak performance coming over slightly further on rattling ground, a strongly run contest would play into his strengths.
La Trinidad
A strongly run renewal would also play in to the strengths of La Trinidad, who I’ve long thought would be suited to Ascot given his form on straight tracks and mile handicaps in general, but is yet to race here. The Bated Breath gelding generally peaks around this time of year, and is just two pounds higher than his last winning mark which came in class two company at Thirsk. He’s ran two joint second career best RPR’s this season, formerly when coming from off the pace in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on seasonal debut and latterly faring best of those held up in rear in the ever competitive Hambleton Handicap at York’s Date meeting despite not getting a clear run at a crucial stage. He’s a stalwart in these big field handicaps, and cannot be discounted at such a large price
Silawi
The sole horse to be officially well in at the weights is the Wathnan owned Silawi, who races from 2lbs lower than his official mark under a 5lbs penalty having gone up officially 7lbs for his three lengths route at Windsor on yard debut. He made all in impressive fashion under James Doyle there to win an eased down three length winner, and given he does have former G1 form, this mark of 94 mightn’t be beyond him provided he can cope with the drop back in trip to a mile for the first time.
Verdict
Finding the tricast of this contest would exceed the luck of that required to win the lottery, but stranger things have happened and ANCIENT ROME can kick start it from a lenient looking mark. He’s proven to cope on quicker ground and it’s plausible to draw a line through his latest effort when racing on the unfavourable part of the track. Jamie Spencer rides this course to perfection, and this looks to have been the early season plan.
Qirat can fair best of the market principals, as his course form in these big field handicaps bodes incredibly well. His mark of 102 is perhaps not reflective of his true ability, but more of his desire to win and while the blinkers may aid in that department, he’s tentatively taken to finish second once more.
Silawi won in the manner of well handicapped gelding at Windsor on yard debut from a 144 day layoff and given he’s 2lbs well in, he has to be considered with any edge a positive one in a race of this nature. His back form when a length behind the 118 rated Spirit Dancer last season at Meydan reads well, and a strongly run race over a mile will bring out his stamina reserves.
Royal Hunt Cup 1-2-3
- Ancient Rome
- Qirat
- Silawi
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