Ryanair Chase Trends 2026

Upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008, there has been many years of talk whether the Ryanair Chase dilutes the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup, or even both. This year backs that argument somewhat with question marks around the main player or players in this race but it has been one that can be profiled to success.

I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what it takes to land this race and if there’s been any newly found trends as the race has seemingly grown in depth.

KEY TRENDS

The winner will be aged between 7 and 9-year-old but 8-year-olds are huge lossmakers blind
Favourites are profitable to back blind
Should hold an OR of at least 161 but preferably 165 or higher
Preference for those who placed top 2 last time out
Last ran 26 to 82 days ago
MUST have run at Cheltenham before and should have won too
Has multiple wins over 19-21 furlongs
Has at least 4 wins over fences and has already won a Grade 1

Focused Trends

AGE

7yo – 6/18 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
8yo – 5/18 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
9yo – 5/18 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
10yo – 2/18 (11%) & 0/10 (0%)

7-year-olds have the highest strike rate both this century and in the last decade and show a profit in both periods. £10 with a 31% ROI this century but just 50p in the last decade.

8-year-olds are the biggest loss maker with a minus 87% ROI in the last decade and a minus 70% ROI since this became a Grade 1.

PRICE

Favourites – 7/18 (39%) & 5/10 (40%)
2^nd Favourites – 6/18 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
3^rd Favourites – 2/18 (11%) & 2/10 (20%)

Backing just favourites, 2^nd favourites or 3^rd favourites blind since 2008 would show a profit for each, the same is also true for the 8^th ranked runner at SP who has taken 2 renewals and shows the biggest ROI.

Those 8^th ranked winners didn’t come from the last 10 though and second favourites haven’t been profitable blind during that period either.

RATINGS

Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 17/18 (94%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 13/18 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Winners with an RPR of 165 or more this season – 15/18 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners with the TOP OR in the field – 8/18 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)

Only one winner of this race didn’t hold an OR of 161 or higher and their win came back in the second renewal after becoming a Grade 1. Every winner had recorded an RPR of 160 or higher in their career though so even a current drop in OR is acceptable if they have a bigger performance in the book.

It’s been profitable in the last 10 years to back the highest rated runner blind for a 15% ROI but it’s a small loss maker since this race took Grade 1 status.

LAST TIME OUT

Top 2 last time out – 11/18 (61%) & 7/10 (70%)
Ran between 26 and 82 days ago – 18/18 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)

Last time out winners are the biggest loss maker blind but they have a fairly high strike rate, just ahead of horses who placed second last time out. All winners last ran between 26 and 82 days ago.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 18/18 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 14/18 (78%) & 7/10 (70%)
Winners who had WON at The Festival before – 5/18 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)

All winners of this race had already run at Cheltenham so that won’t help, especially as most winners of this race has a course win to their name too.

5 of the last 10 winners were previous Festival winners but they show a minus 46% ROI. Since 2008, there have been 8 previous Festival winners to land this but despite the losing ROI reading better, it’s still a negative 24%.

Conversely the ROI for horses without a previous Festival win is much more expensive to follow

CAREER FORM

Winners who had 2 or more WINS at 19-21 furlongs – 16/18 (89%) & 9/10 (90%)
Winners who had 4 or MORE wins over fences – 15/18 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)

Every winner of this race has won at 19-21 furlongs but most had won more than once. Even accounting for inexperienced runners, most winners of this race had 4 or more wins over fences.

GRADED FORM

Had already won a Grade 1 – 14/18 (78%) & 7/10 (70%)

No surprise that most winners of this race have previously won a Grade 1 and this should help whittle down the field to some degree.

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