Savills Chase Trends - Galopin Des Champs Comeback (28 Dec 2025)

One of the biggest Grade 1 staying chases in the Irish racing calendar which looks set to be a mouthwatering renewal this year.

I’ve taken a look at all winners this century and compared against the last decade to see if we can profile the likely winner and whether the trends are turning.

KEY TRENDS

Likely to be aged between 6 and 8
Profitable to back the 3^rd and 4^th favourites (at SP) blind this century
Preference goes to horses who finished second last time out
Should have run in the last 60 days
Must have an OR of 160+ but is probably NOT the highest rated runner
Has 4 or more wins over fences and preferably a 50% or higher strike rate
Should have won at about 3 miles if tried more than twice, otherwise should have placed
Respect British trained runners sent off at 8/1 or shorter

Focused Trends

AGE

6yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
7yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
8yo – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
10yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)

Backing 6-year-olds blind in the last decade has shown a £23.67 profit from 11 qualifiers and all winners from the last decade were aged 6-8.

This century, you would have to go back to 2012 to find a winner older than 8 which was 11-year-old Tidal Bay in one of the greatest performances of all time. 6-year-olds are profitable blind this century too with a £28.17 profit from 19 qualifiers.

PRICE

Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
Priced single-figures – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Top 2 in the betting – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
3^rd or 4^th in the betting – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
Top 4 in the betting – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)

The biggest priced winner this century was 11/1 shot Outlander in 2016 and if you had backed every runner priced 8/1 or shorter blind this century you would be showing a 22% ROI. But, if you just backed every runner priced between 9/2 and 8/1 blind the ROI increases to 72%!

This falls in line with the market positions at SP too. All winners came from the Top 4 in the betting it’s a loss maker to follow the front two in blind but it’s profitable to back the 3^rd and 4^th with a 73% ROI.

OFFICIAL RATING

Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 17/25 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
Winners with the TOP OR – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)

We’ve had some big names and all time greats land this race before now. The bar of 160 as an official rating might seem quite low for a blue ribband event, but given the age of winners and timing of the season suggests this is a race for those stepping into Open company to shine, it’s understandable that many will not yet have reached a real peak rating yet.

Backing the officially rated ‘best’ horse in the race is costly to follow blind too, so respect the market but appreciate that age seems to wait for no horse.

LAST TIME OUT

Ran at Down Royal or Punchestown – 10/25 (38%) & 7/10 (70%)
Ran at Haydock or Newbury – 8/25 (32%) & 0/10 (0%)
Won last time out – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
2^nd last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
Ran in the last 60 Days – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
NONE of the last 6 winners won last time out

Most winner last ran at Down Royal, Punchestown, Haydock or Newbury last time out but it’s the two British courses which are profitable to follow blind this century with a 57% ROI. There hasn’t been a winner from either of those British courses since Bobs Worth in 2013.

Most winners did NOT win last time out which is true for the last 6 winners. Backing all runners who finished second last time out is profitable to back blind this century though with a 46% ROI. That placement shows an 88% ROI in the last decade!

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 16/25 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 12/16 (75%) & 7/9 (78%)

Course form isn’t essential when looking back historically but with the last British trained winner coming in 2012 it’s no wonder recently most winners have been here before. Those who have run here, ideally should have won here too.

DISTANCE FORM

Winners who had RUN at about 3M – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners who had WON at 3M – 22/24 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)

Beef Or Salmon’s first win in the race in 2002 was his first try at about this trip but all other winners had at least tried the distance. If you’ve had more than 2 tries at about the distance you should have already won but if not then you should have at least placed.

CAREER CHASE FORM

Had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
Had 4 or more WINS over fences – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
50% or higher chase win strike rate – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)

The life span of a top tier staying chaser might come into play here with most winners of this race having run 9 or fewer times over fences. Most will have at least 4 wins over fences though and in turn more winners than not hold a 50% or higher strike rate in this discipline.

GRADED FORM

Had already won a Grade 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)

This race hasn’t always been a Grade 1, but still it’s preferably to have already tasted Grade 1 success before now and essential these days to have at least won a Grade 2.

TRAINERS LAST DECADE

Gordon Elliott – 4 winners from 19 runners – P/L +£10.5
Willie Mullins – 4 winners from 31 runners – P/L -£16
Noel Meade – 1 winner from 7 runners – P/L +£2.00
Henry De Bromhead – 1 winner from 12 runners – P/L -£3.5

Only showing the recent trainers’ figures as the British challenge had dwindled. Typically, it’s a race dominated by Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins. That said, trainers with most of their runners from England this century have 8 wins from 28 runners showing a 46% ROI to SP and 93% to Betfair SP. This increases massively to 115% to SP and 199% To Betfair SP if you only include those who SP’d at 8/1 or shorter.