Scottish Grand National Trends 2026

Willie Mullins has taken the last 2 renewals of this contest; 12 months ago with Captain Cody under Harry Cobden and before that with Macdermott, the first 6yo winner since Earth Summit.

I’m sure he’ll have an interest again but maybe not quite as much as the last couple of seasons and I’ve looked at every running this century in comparison to the last 10 to see if we can profile what it typically takes to land this race.

KEY TRENDS

Age isn’t a huge indicator but recently preference has been for those no older than 9
The winners market position varies but much cheaper to stay close to the top 3
Preferably holds and OR of 135 to 146
Ideally placed Top 3 last time out with preference those coming 1^st or 3^rd
Last ran between 16 and 30 days ago (profitable blind)
Is unlikely to be wearing any headgear

Focused Trends

AGE

6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
9yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
10yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
11yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)

Just one winning 6-year-old this century but from the 19 runners they’re the only age to break even. 7 and 11-year-olds operate at the highest 5% strike rate alongside 6-year-olds but 8, 9 and 10-year-olds are only down at 4% this century so not too much in age it would seem over the long term.

From the last 10 running’s we’ve seen 6 and 11-year-olds as profitable to back blind but with just one winner each. 6 and 7-year-olds have the best strike rates so that’s a continued theme from this century too with 11-year-olds considered as well.

PRICE

Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
1^st or 2^nd second favourite – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
Priced 14/1 or bigger – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)

Price is another measure that wouldn’t be able to whittle down the field looking at both this century and the last decade.

While half of the winners were priced 14/1 or bigger you’d make a much bigger loss backing all those blind as there are far more qualifiers. The market is worth respecting and this century you’d backed the top 3 each year you’d only show a £1.50 loss from £1 level stakes and more than a third of those placed too.

RATINGS AND WEIGHT

Winners with an OR between 135 and 146 – 19/25 (76%) & 10/10 (100%)
Winners carrying 10-12 to 11-04 – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)

Backing all runners with an OR of between 135 and 146 has been profitable to back blind across both periods measured. £20.50 profit in the last decade and £56.50 this century.

Half of recent winners carried between 10 stone 12 and 11 stone 4 pounds but has shown a small loss blind.

If you combine the two measures from above, you’d have found 5 of the last 10 winners but turn the losing weight range into a winning one with an 11% ROI.

LAST TIME OUT

Won last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
Top 3 last time out – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last ran 16-30 days ago – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)

Last time out winners have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade for a £45 and £43.5 profit respectively.

Horses who finished second last time out are loss makers to back blind but from the 4 winners this century who placed third last time out, you’re showing a £46.5 profit from 68 qualifiers.

Half of the last 10 winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago which is profitable to back blind showing a £55 profit from 59 qualifiers. It’s showing £54 profit from 133 qualifiers this century despite finding just two further winners.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Ayr – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
Winners who had WON at Ayr – 8/13 (62%) & 2/5 (40%)

Not a huge amount to learn from course form with around half of winners having been here which means around half hadn’t. Winning course form does make things more influential but it’s hard to suggest losing course form is worse than no course form.

HEADGEAR

Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 18/25 (72%) & 4/10 (40%)

There have been 7 headgear wearing winners of this race this century, 5 of those had cheekpieces on while the other 2 wore hoods, both though were Vincente and he makes hood wearers profitable to back blind, but from a sample of just 6 qualifiers.

HONOURS ROLL (This Century):

2025 – Captain Cody (IRE)
2024 – Macdermott (FR)
2023 – Kittys Light (GB)
2022 – Win My Wings (IRE)
2021 – Mighty Thunder (GB)
2019 – Takingrisks (IRE)
2018 – Joe Farrell (IRE)
2017 – Vicente (FR)
2016 – Vicente (FR)
2015 – Wayward Prince (GB)
2014 – Al Co (FR)
2013 – Godsmejudge (IRE)
2012 – Merigo (FR)
2011 – Beshabar (IRE)
2010 – Merigo (FR)
2009 – Hello Bud (IRE)
2008 – Iris De Balme (FR)
2007 – Hot Weld (GB)
2006 – Run For Paddy (GB)
2005 – Joes Edge (IRE)
2004 – Grey Abbey (IRE)
2003 – Ryalux (IRE)
2002 – Take Control (IRE)
2001 – Gingembre (FR)
2000 – Paris Pike (IRE)