The Scottish National is the biggest race north of the border and takes place on Saturday. Dave Young has analysed all of the relevant trends for the race below, with all they key statistics covered and selections provided.
England won the World Cup in 1966 and the Scottish Grand National had just been moved to Ayr. Since then, we’ve seen Red Rum become the only horse to do the English and Scottish National double in the same year, but I think that’s testament to how seriously each race deserves to be targeted in their own right. I’m going to run through some patterns of the winner from the last 10 years and we’ll look at the more recent 5 year split too. Hopefully this will help whittle down the field and find us a few for consideration.
10-year notable trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a race that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-03 or less
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 5+ runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had raced that calendar year and 8 of those inside 40 days
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2+ wins over fences (8 of those had 3+)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2+ wins over 3m+ (8 of those had 3+)
Box Tickers (using the 8/10 markers for the bottom three trends):
ELVIS MAIL & MY SILVER LINING
5-year notable trends
- ALL of the last 5 winners recorded their season peak RPR last time out
- 4 of the last 5 winners won last time out (the other finished second)
- 4 of the last 5 winners had 3+ career chase wins (All of the last 4)
- 4 of the last 5 winners had 5+ runs that season (the other had 4)
Box Tickers:
ELVIS MAIL
Overview
The spanner has truly been thrown into the works this season with Willie Mullins now pushing with intent for the British Jumps Trainer title having topped the table following Aintree. He is capable of throwing in something outside of the box that is miles clear of these. However, we’re looking at recent trends to establish likely candidates and it’s ELVIS MAIL who ticks all the boxes form our 10-year and 5-year trends. Technically 4lbs out of the handicap having to shoulder a penalty which is greater than the BHA rise he was given, but Bruce Lynn takes off 3lbs, although he’s been doing that throughout the season. He is a course winner, and he does come here in peak season form should they choose to line up. Typically, the further a horse runs the more they may need the break after, but if you can accept that he’s as big as 50/1 for this with 5 places currently up for grabs (and more probably at final decs) then surely he’s worth a small investment.
MY SILVER LINING ticked all the 10-year boxes and while this would require a career best effort from the 8-year-old mare, she’s got all her form inside the top 3 this season and ranging from a Good ground win to a National Trial second on Heavy. Jumps for fun and is as game as they come, so with 16/1 about for her you’d imagine she’d could be well supported.
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