The Sprint Cup at Haydock has seen some very special sprinters on the honours roll. It’s not been devoid of upsets though and last year showed us just that. So, I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared against the last 10, to see if I can profile what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be no older than 6 but be wary of 4-year-olds
- It is profitable to back all runners blind with an SP of 17/2 to 12/1
- Will hold an OR of 110 or higher and preferably 114 or higher
- Respect runners who placed Top 2 last time out
- Expected to have contested a Group 1 last time out
- Doesn’t need to have run at 6 furlongs last time out
- Ideally has 3 or more wins at 6 furlongs
- Should have 3 or more runs this season and 1 or 2 wins this season
- Preference to runners who have at least won a Group 2 before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
While 3yo’s lead the way across both periods, the last 5 winners were NOT aged 3.
5yo’s hold the best strike rate and show the biggest £1 level stake profit this century but 6yo’s take both titles in the last decade.
The consistent trend across both periods is that 4yo’s look to be worth avoiding and more than likely the winner will be no older than 6.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9/1 or shorter – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing favourites blind would show a modest profit this century of £1 but increasing to £3.5 in the last decade. Not a life changer, but profit is profit!
More winners than not are sent off single figures but the sweet spot for making money sits backing runners with an SP between 17/2 and 12/1. It shows a £50 level stake profit this century for an almost 100% ROI and a £22 profit blind in the last decade from just 12 qualifiers!
DRAW – (removed the 2008 running from Doncaster from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 12/24 (50%) & 3/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (40%)
You’ll notice that neither total land at 100% which is due to a horse drawn in the middle of the entire field winning in 2021. We’ve not always had the biggest field sizes for this race, but a turning trend would favour Low drawn runners. On balance though, I don’t think draw would be a dealbreaker.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 114 or more – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
It takes a good horse to win this race with most winners holding an OR of at least 110. In recent years, we’re seeing a better class of horse winning but it’s this century that backing all runners blind at 114 or higher is profitable. It’s a loss maker in the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Group 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 6f– 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 42 days or less – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 43 days or more – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out winners are profitable to follow blind in the last decade but not this century. Horses who placed second last time out are profitable to back blind this century but not in the last decade! Simply put, respect those who finished top 2 last time out.
Most winners came from a Group1 last time out but as many winners and more had their last start racing over a trip that wasn’t exactly 6 furlongs.
This century, more winners ran in the last 6 weeks than not however the split has been 50/50 in the last 10 renewals.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2008 running from Doncaster from this)
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 8/15 (53%) & 5/7 (71%)
Previous course form is desirable and even more so if winning course form. That may sound obvious, but it isn’t always the case
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN 6 or more times at 6f – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON 3 or more times at 6f – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Given the nature of this event, especially being later in the season, it’s no surprise to see most winners had 6 or more runs in their career over 6 furlongs. Most winners had 3 or more wins at the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 10/25 (40%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 2 wins this season – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 3 wins this season – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
Every winner since 2012 had won that season so that is now looking like a non-negotiable with preference to those with 1 or 2 wins.
Every single winner had at least 2 runs that season and most had 3 or more.
GROUP FORM
- Has won at least a Group 2 – 13/25 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
7 winners this century had not won a Group race of any kind, but most winners had won at least a Group 2. That’s been more prevalent in the last 10 running’s of this contest.