The Sprint Cup at Haydock has some great names on the honours roll and last year’s winner Big Mojo was a big trend ticker when winning at 16/1.
He was the first 3-year-old winner since 2019 but there was a streak of four in succession from 2014 to 2017.
There’s quite a lot to look at in this race, so I’ve taken the last 25 renewals and the last 10 renewals to see which patterns are consistent and which trends might be turning, all in a bid to find another winner of the Haydock Sprint Cup.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be no older than 6 but be wary of 4-year-olds
- Respect favourites but also respect those sent off 17/2 to 9/1
- Should hold an OR of 110 but preferably 114 or higher
- Preferably placed last time out, last ran in a Group 1 but doesn’t need to have run at 6f last time out
- Should have run at Haydock
- Should have 3 or more wins at 6f and if older than 3 should have 6 or more runs at 6f
- Has at least 2 runs this season and has won this season
- Preferably has already won at least a Group 2
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 2/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 3/25 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
Over the last 25 renewals it’s 3-year-olds, 5-year-olds and 6-year-olds who operate at the best strike rates although 3-year-olds are not profitable to back blind, 6-year-olds are +/- £0 while 5-year-olds show a 30% ROI.
4-year-olds are heavy loss makers across both periods so they’re ones to oppose and while 3,5 and 6-year-olds all should have chances, it’s the elders who make money if backing blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 17/2 to 9/1 – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
Favourites perform OK in this contest and while around half of winners are sent of a single figure SP, it’s the window of 17/2 to 9/1 that profitable to back blind. It shows a £57 profit and a 121% ROI from the last 25 renewals and £9 and a 64% ROI from the last 10 renewals.
DRAW – (removed the 2008 running from Doncaster from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
You’ll notice that neither total land at 100% which is due to a horse drawn in the middle of the entire field winning in 2021.
However, it’s clear to see that the side of the draw you’re in doesn’t seem to have too much influence in who will win this race and from the last 25 renewals there have been 4 winners from the lowest three drawn runners and 4 winners from the highest three runners.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 114 or more – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with the HIGHEST OR in the race – 5/25 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)
The sprint division takes some knocks throughout the year, but this is a Top-Tier Group 1 with most winners holding an OR of 114 or higher and even the lower bar of 110 is a fair standard to reach.
While class prevails here, it’s not always the most obvious classy horse or, more to the point, the highest rated runner in this field. Still, it shows a 3% ROI from the last 25 renewals with five winners despite an A/E of just 0.69. Three of those five winners came in the last 10 renewals but that shows a 0% ROI despite a higher A/E of 0.89.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Placed – 18/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 6f – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 42 days or less – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 43 days or more – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
Last time out winners account for less than a third of winners of this race although most did place, and most came from a Group 1 last time out.
The majority of winners did NOT run at 6-furlongs last time and marginally more winners ran inside the last 6 weeks than didn’t.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2008 running from Doncaster from this)
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 15/24 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 7/15 (47%) & 5/8 (63%)
Previous course form is desirable and even more so if winning course form. While that may sound obvious, it isn’t always the case however you really would prefer your horse to have been here before at a minimum.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN 6 or more times at 6f – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON 3 or more times at 6f – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
Given the age profile of this contest favouring 3,5 and 6-year-olds it makes sense there is a blend of both experience and inexperience.
Only the 3-year-olds don’t tick the box of 6 or more runs at 6f in the last decade so maybe it’s better to combine this metric with age, although 3 of the 4 3-year-old winners had 3 or more wins at this trip.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 2 wins this season – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
Every winner since 2012 had won that season so that is now looking like a non-negotiable and every winner had at least 2 runs that season with at least 1 or 2 wins that season too.
GROUP FORM
- Has won at least a Group 2 – 13/25 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
7 winners from the last 25 had not won a Group race of any kind, but most winners had won at least a Group 2. That’s been more prevalent in the last 10 running’s of this contest although not true of the last 3 winners
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