The St Leger meeting at Doncaster is fast approaching, heralding the end to Classic season on the flat. Dave Young has looked into every race for the Thursday of the festival, and picked out the key trends to follow in each contest.
13:15 EBF FILLIES’ NURSERY HANDICAP – CLASS 2 – 6.5F
- ALL of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- ALL of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had 3 or more runs
- 9 of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced (5 favourites)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 80+
- 8 of the last 10 winners raced 21 days ago or more
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the bottom half (6 from stall 5 or lower)
- 7 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (2 of the 3 that didn’t ran in pattern races)
- 6 of the last 10 winners raced at 7 furlongs last time out
- 5 of the last 10 winners won last time out
“Has won a race and will ideally be single-figure priced. Should have 3 or more runs, holds an OR of 80+ and probably raced 21 days ago or more”
13:50 WEATHERBYS SCIENTIFIC 2-Y-0 STAKES – CLASS 2 – 6.5F
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had 3 or more runs
- 9 of the last 10 winners had more horses behind than in front last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 19 and 22 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already achieved an RPR of 86+
- 8 of the last 10 winners raced at 6 furlongs last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran in a Class 2 or better last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran at York
- 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or bigger
- 6 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
“Should have 3 or more runs and has won a race. Look to those who last ran 19-22 days ago, last ran at York and last ran at 6 furlongs. Should have achieved an RPR of 86+ by now”
14:25 BETFRED MAY HILL STAKES – GROUP 2 – 1M
- ALL of the last 10 winners finished top 4 last time out (7 finished top 2)
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market (4 favourites)
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran at 7 furlongs last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran inside the last 3 weeks
- LAST 6 winners all won last time out
- LAST 4 winners had 2 career wins
“Preferably won last time out, comes from the top 2 in the market, probably ran at 7f last time out and inside the last 3 weeks”
15:00 BETFRED PARK HILL FILLIES’ STAKES – GROUP 2 – 1M 6.5F
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran at 12 furlongs or further last time out
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran in Listed company or better last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners has 3 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top or bottom 2 stalls
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had NOT already won a Group 2 or better
- 5 of the last 10 winners won last time out
“Ran in Listed company or better and at 12 furlongs or further last time out. Probably has 3 or more runs this season and respect those drawn in the top or bottom 2 stalls”
15:35 PERTEMPS NETWORK HANDICAP – CLASS 2 – 1M 2F (Introduced in 2023)
- Both winners had won that season
- Both winners had run at but NOT won at 10 furlongs
- Both winners ran in a Class 3 or better handicap last time out
- Both winners last ran between 20 and 26 days ago
“Only two renewals but the winners had won that season, had raced but not won at 10f, ran in a Handicap last time out and ran 20 to 26 days ago”
16:10 NURSERY HANDICAP – CLASS 3 – 7F
- 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 5 stalls
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at 7 furlongs (7 of those had won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter (5 favourites)
“Respect runners drawn in stall 5 or lower, horses who had run and preferably won at 7 furlongs and did not win last time out”
16:43 NURSERY HANDICAP – CLASS 4 – 1M
- ALL of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run 3 or more times
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished top 3 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran in a Class 4 or Class 5 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 79+ (not the last 2)
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-12 and 9-3
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran at 8 furlongs last time out
“No bigger than 10/1, with 3 runs already and placed top 3 last time out. Comes from a Class 4 or 5 race, holds and OR of 79+ and carries 8-12 to 9-3”
17:18 HANDICAP – CLASS 3 – 1M 4F (Introduced in 2023)
- Both winners were drawn in stall 7
- Both winners had won this season
- Both winners won last time out
- Both winners ran in a Class 4 or worse last time out
“Only 2 renewals but both winners had won this season and won last time out. Both were drawn in stall 7 and both ran in a Class 4 or worse last time out”