Established in 1776, the St Leger is the oldest of Britain’s five Classics and it’s also the last to be run each year. It’s also the longest distance of the five and it’s the final leg of the English Triple Crown. I’ve looked at all runnings this century with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be a single-figure priced runner and favourites are profitable blind
- The draw has no bearing on the result
- Will have an OR of 108 or higher but preferably 110 or higher
- Has NOT run inside the last three weeks
- Will have run at 12 furlongs or further last time out
- If has run at 14-15 furlongs they will have won at 14-15 furlongs too
- Will have 3 or more runs and should have won this season
- Should have already won a Group race but not necessarily a Group 1
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Single-figures – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Favourites perform above expectations with a 40% ROI this century but while most winners are single figure priced, you couldn’t follow second or third favourites blind to show a profit.
Three of the four double-figure priced winners came between 2009 and 2012 with the other in 2016, so some might argue we’re due one?
DRAW (2006 running not at Doncaster so only 24 counted)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
You’ll notice neither period make up to 100% and that’s because we’ve had two of the last three winners being drawn slap bang in the middle. The balance of high and low draws is even across this century and in the last 10 so draw is not significant.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
You’d expect a Classic to see horses with a high rating taking most races, and this is true with the bar being set at 110 or higher. You could shift it down to 108 to capture all bar one winner this century (102) but do not stoop lower than that.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Group 2 – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Group 3+ – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 12f+ – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 21 days or less – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 42 days or less – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Great Voltigeur Stakes – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners of the St Leger will have won last time out but that alone is not profitable to back blind. Given this is a Classic, it’s a little surprising that most winners did NOT run in a Group 1 last time out, but I think the schedule allows lesser races to be the stepping stone. The Group 2 Great Voltigeur has been a reasonable launchpad to this race.
It’s important to respect that only one winner ran inside the last 21 days, and they were the only winner to run below Group level last time out too. All bar one winner last ran at 12 furlongs or further last time out.
COURSE FORM (24 counted as 2006 running not at Doncaster)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 4/24 (17%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Winners who had WON at Doncaster – 3/4 (75%)
Less than 20% of winners this century had already seen the Doncaster racetrack however, of those who had run here, three quarters were winners. None of the last 10 winners had been to this track before.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 14f-15f – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Won at 14f-15f – 7/7 (100%) & 5/5 (100%)
Given this is longest Classic of the year and limited opportunities through the season, it’s not surprising that not all winners of this race have run at the trip before. However, every runner who had tried the trip this century including 5 of the last 10 winners, had won at the trip and those 7 this century all came from the last 14 runnings. It’s not essential to have run at the trip, but if you have, you should have won.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
Ever winner of the St Leger this century had run 3 or more times that season and all but three winners had won a race that season too.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Around a quarter of winners this century had won a Group 1 before now but more importantly, 80% of winners had won a Group race of some nature.