The St Leger is the oldest of Britain’s five Classics and it’s also the last to be run each year. It’s also the longest distance of the five and it’s the final leg of the English Triple Crown.
I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals with a comparison to the last 10, to see what it takes to land this race and whether the trends are turning.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be a single-figure priced runner and favourites are profitable blind
- Holds an OR of at least 110, preferably 115 or higher but doesn’t need to be top-rated
- Raced at 12f or further last time out and in a Group race but not necessarily a Group 1
- Respect those coming from York, Longchamp or Goodwood last time out
- Not expected to have any course form
- Ideally has form at 14-15f and if so they should have won
- Has at least 3 but preferable 4 runs this season and should have won this season but preferably multiple times
- Doesn’t need to be a Group 1 winner but should be a Group winner
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Single-figures – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Favourites perform above expectations and even in the last decade show a 30% ROI. Second favourites are also profitable to back blind in the last decade but including the prior 15 renewals would have only found one more winning second favourite.
Still, this confirms that these days, more often than not, the market is a good indicator to who is most likely to win this race, and you can profit from following that blind.
Three of the four double-figure priced winners came between 2009 and 2012 with the other in 2016, so some might argue we’re due one?
DRAW (2006 running not at Doncaster so only 24 counted)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
You’ll notice neither period make up to 100% and that’s because we’ve had two of the last four winners being drawn slap bang in the middle.
Overall, and on balance, there’s a small upside to being drawn in the Top half but given the record of fancied runners winning this race and the distance that is covered, you don’t want to read much into the draw.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with the HIGHEST OR in the race – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
You’d expect a Classic to see horses with a high rating taking most races, and this is true with the bar being set at 110 or higher. You’d expect depth in a Classic so while the bar of 110 or higher accounts for most winner (108 or higher contains all bar one this century) it’s not always the highest rated runner who lands this contest.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Group 2 – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Group 3+ – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 12f+ – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 21 days or less – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 42 days or less – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Great Voltigeur Stakes – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
Given this is a Classic, it’s a little surprising that most winners did NOT run in a Group 1 last time out, but I think the schedule allows lesser races to be the stepping stone with this being a longer trip than most horses would run over. The Group 2 Great Voltigeur has been a reasonable launchpad to this race and 7 of the last 8 winners came from York, Longchamp or Goodwood.
It’s important to respect that only one winner ran inside the last 21 days, and they were the only winner to run below Group level last time out too. All bar one winner last ran at 12 furlongs or further last time out which makes that now non-negotiable.
COURSE FORM (24 counted as 2006 running not at Doncaster)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Winners who had WON at Doncaster – 3/5 (60%) & 0/1 (0%)
Course experience for these 3-year-olds isn’t easy to come by, especially given this is a race of such prestige.
The last horse to have winning course form here was back in 2014 with only last years winner Scandinavia having even raced here since.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 14f-15f – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Won at 14f-15f – 8/8 (100%) & 5/5 (100%)
Given this is longest run classic of the year and limited opportunities through the season, it’s not surprising that not all winners of this race have run at the trip before. However, every runner who had tried the trip this century including 5 of the last 10 winners, had won at the trip and those 8 from the last 25 all came from the last 15 running’s. It’s not essential to have run at about the trip but it’s proving more of a box ticked than it was before and if you have, you should have won.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
You’d have to go back to 2014 to find a winner of this race who hadn’t won that season but even then, Kingston Hill was sent off as the favourite so was findable and excused for the lack of a season win.
All winners had at least 3 runs and most winners have 4 or more runs. Ideally the winner will have won multiple races this season.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
It’s not essential to be a previous Group 1 winner, which I suppose for 3-year-olds isn’t as strange as it sounds, despite this being a Classic.
Across both periods, 80% of winners had won a Group race of some nature but that’s probably not going to whittle down the field.
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.