Summer jumps racing can only really mean Market Rasen! I’ve looked at the Summer Plate Handicap Chase over the last decade and this century to see if I can find the profile of a typical winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 6 to 9-years-old
- Respect favourites as they are profitable to back blind
- Look to those who placed Top 3 last time out
- Will have run this season
- Has ideally run at Market Rasen
- Preference to those with 2 visits to track but no wins
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
No age has been profitable to back blind across both periods however both 6 and 8-year-olds have been in the last decade, each with a 12% strike rate. 6-year-olds fared better than most ages this century blind too, so that’s a consistent enough trend
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 6/1 or shorter – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites are profitable to follow blind across both periods with over 50% ROI this century and near 100% ROI in the last decade. You’d make about the same profit in the last decade backing all runners with an SP of 6/1 or shorter, but it would have cost you 50% more and while it’s profitable to follow this century too, the favourites angle alone pays a much better ROI.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of between 127 and 137 – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
While it’s not been profitable to back all runners with an OR between 127 and 137, it’s found plenty of winners. There have been 7 winners this century with an OR of 137 or higher and 6 of those came in the last decade so that’s a turning trend worth noting.
WEIGHT
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
More winners than not have carried less than 11 stone in this race. Not profitable to back blind but can help with profiling.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 90 days – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners are loss makers both this century and in the last decade but it’s been profitable to follow those who placed 2nd and 3rd last time out. Most winners will have raced this season although that wont help whittle the field down.
COURSE FORM
- 0 runs at Market Rasen – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 1 run at Market Rasen – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 2 runs at Market Rasen – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 or more runs at Market Rasen – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
Course form does help find more winners of this race than those who are having their first look but it’s only runners who have had exactly 2 runs here that a profitable to back blind.
Interestingly, if we look at runners who have been here once or twice but have not won at the track it improves both categories.
COMBINATION TRENDS VS QUALIFIERS AND ROI TO SP
- OR of 127-137 and carrying less than 11 stone – 11/121 (7%) & 4/50 (16%)
- Above PLUS has 1-2 runs at Market Rasen but 0 wins – 6/27 (250%) & 4/14 (315%)
- Above PLUS aged 6 to 9-years-old – 6/22 (330%) & 4/10 (480%)
Compiling these trends, I found it very interesting about horses with 1 or 2 runs here that hadn’t won at the course. I wanted to add in something else to see if I could increase the ROI and by looking at OR, weight carried and age I’m able to still find all 4 winners from the last decade but reduces the qualifiers from 50 to 10. This century it finds more than half of winners but reduces the qualifiers from 121 to 22. In both instances it produces a healthy ROI and this is thanks to the last decade.