As a trainer you want to get a Cheltenham winner in any race, but the big guns will want to settle their nerves by landing a race as soon as possible which is why the Supreme is such a highly anticipated race. It’s even true for punters wanting to start off with a bang and historically the first race of the meeting feels like one for the punters.
That said, it’s not just about backing favourites, and I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can see which boxes need to be ticked to land the curtain raiser.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be a single-figure priced 5 or a 6-year-old with a preference for the latter
- 3rd favourites have outperformed favourites in the last decade
- Must be rated 140+ but preferably 150+
- Backing the highest-rated runner blind is profitable with a 64% ROI since 2014
- Won last time out, ran 33-66 days ago and preferably in a Graded hurdle race
- Most likely started racing in Point To Points or Bumpers
- Should have won at least a Grade 2 before now but preferably a Grade 1
- Only respect Willie Mullins’ and Nicky Henderson’s first string
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 7yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
This century, 5-year-olds show a huge £110 loss if you backed all of the 181 runners for a negative ROI of 61%. 6-year-olds are the winning-most age and although not profitable to back blind, in comparison, they show just an 8% negative ROI. If shipping out the cannon-fodder it seems like you be steered far off the right track by focussing slightly more on the 6-year-olds.
So, looking into that, again this century, backing every 5-year-old sent off single figures improves their losing ROI to -36% and doing the same for 6-year-olds brings theirs into a 12% positive ROI.
Bring the same focus into the last decade, backing 6-year-olds with a single figure SP blind would yield a 45% ROI to SP alone. For 5-year-olds in the same period and the same SP criteria makes just an 8p loss.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3rd Favourite – 6/25 (25%) & 5/10 (50%)
The only metric that could be used to make a profit blind from position in the market is to back the 3rd favourite which shows a healthy £22 profit in the last decade and a 183% ROI, this century it’s yielded a £17 profit and 61% ROI.
Backing favourites blind is a loss maker but if you took a chance on bigger priced runners at 14/1 or more then you’d be losing £169 with two-thirds of the runners this century falling into that bracket but producing just 4 winners.
The only other price ranking that is profitable in both the last 10 years and this century is backing the 10th in market at SP. Relatively strange thing to point out with some luck required to land in that market position but worth mentioning all the same.
RATINGS SINCE 2008 – (pre 2008 there are only two measured with an OR)
- Winners with an OR of 140 or more – 17/18 (94%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 150 or more – 9/18 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with the highest OR – 6/18 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Season Peak RPR of 140 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
The lowest bar is set at 140 for Official rating but preference goes to horses in excess of 150 in a typical year. Backing the highest rated runner in the field since 2008 is profitable but the first came in 2014 and since then it yields a 64% ROI with an A/E of 1.5
All of the last 18 winners recorded an RPR of 120+ on their first run of this season and most winners hit a peak RPR of 140 or higher before coming into this.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran between 33 and 66 days ago – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race won last time out but that also accounts for most runners in this race. Given there can be only one winner, it’s not profitable to follow that alone blind.
Most winners last ran between 33 and 66 days ago and 7 of the last 8 last ran in a Graded Hurdle.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners of this race have NOT already run at Cheltenham. As always, course form would be helpful, but it’s not required.
RACING ORIGIN
- Bumpers – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Point To Points – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Flat – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second Season Novice Hurdler – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
4 of the last 6 winners started their racing in Point To Points and the other two came from Bumpers. Point To Point and Bumper horses make up the majority if Supreme winners.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
A slightly moving trend is winners of this race having at least a Grade 2 to their name. 6 of the last 8 winners though had already won a Grade 1 so it’s a minimum requirement to have a Grade 2 win already and a preference to have a Grade 1.
WILLIE MULLINS
Willie Mullins is well-regarded for most Cheltenham non-handicaps and since 2013 with Champagne Fever he has saddled 6 winners, all of which were the stable first strings according to market SP. This has been profitable to back blind with an ROI of 84% to SP.
NICKY HENDERSON
Nicky Henderson’s first Supreme winner came back in 1986 and his second came in 1992. He had to wait until 2016 for Altior but that encompasses the last 10 renewals for which he is showing a 118% ROI to SP for backing his first strings having produced 3 winners from 7 renewals across the last 10 years. Like Willie, he has only won in this sample with first strings as decided by market SP.