The Open Championship is the final major of the golf season, being held this week at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. There is potential value throughout the 156-strong field, as GG preview the championship and give our best bets.
Open Championship Best Bets
Xander Schauffele 20/1 – 1pt each-way 10 places
Tyrrell Hatton 25/1 – 1pt each-way 8 places
Back-to-back winners of major championships might be a rarity, but the Open has had two of them in the 21st century in Tiger Woods (2005, 2006) and Padraig Harrington immediately afterwards (2007, 2008). There is a transferability of skills in links golf that outranks that for parkland or manufactured courses.
Having won this a year ago at a general 12/1, XANDER SCHAUFFELE returns to defend at a much bigger price. From a form perspective, this is understandable: despite three successive top tens directly after his Open triumph, the reigning Champion Golfer then suffered an intercostal injury which interrupted his early season. He has endured a transitional period as a result, but has continued his lengthy run of made cuts and performed up to scratch yet again in the majors.
Two of his best four performances by finishing position in 2025 have come at the majors, in the Masters and the US Open. He arguably produced his best effort just last week in the Scottish Open when finishing in a tie for eighth after a final round 66.
Schauffele has won that event before, but this finish was notable for its promise after he had confessed to a season of relative struggle. A previously near-incomparable putter, that is one of the clubs which has contributed to his drop-off and again he ranked only 57th for strokes gained putting in Scotland. However, that was improved by ranking tenth in the final round, suggesting it is warming up just in time for a test he should enjoy.
The American was only 41st here in 2019, but was only two shots below the top ten after round three. A final round 78 saw him plummet in tough conditions, but he has become a golfer who thrives in contention. Last year’s victory demonstrated that, while he rallied for second after a terrible start to his fourth round in the 2018 Open at Carnoustie.
There are signs he is about to come good again in a big way and the golfing landscape looks thinner than it did 12 months ago: Scottie Scheffler is the clear number one still, but is not in Tiger-incarnate form as per 2024, Rory McIlroy again has that local; burden to carry, while Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut in the US Open compared to his seismic victory this time last year. Schauffele himself has contributed to that lowering of the ceiling, but his odds compared to those he won at in 2024 are simply too great to ignore as his chances improve by the week.
A British winner would be sought by many, with Tommy Fleetwood the romantic’s call having been second at Royal Portrush in 2019. He came achingly close to breaking his PGA Tour duck at the Travelers four weeks ago too, but that heartbreak, coupled with a quiet prep in just one tournament when 34th in Scotland, contribute to TYRRELL HATTON getting the verdict among the Brits.
The LIV golfer briefly traded as favourite deep into the final round of the US Open and was probably one good break or two from winning or forcing a play-off. As it is, his tee shot on Oakmont’s 17th came up agonisingly short of the bunker, ultimately providing him with an impossible up-and-down, putting paid to his chances almost immediately.
His tied fourth finish was still the best of his major career and he should probably have finished closer in the Masters too. His famed ill temperament no longer gets in the way quite as much as it used to and his all-round game is as solid across the board as any golfer in the world.
A three-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion, these conditions could see him thrive again. A missed cut last year at Troon leaves a nagging doubt, but he was sixth at Portrush six years ago and it is difficult to argue that he is not a more complete golfer nowadays. A final round 69 that year was impressive and he could well prove to be LIV’s best hope of concluding their collective major season with a victory.
Open Championship Outsider Bets
Jordan Spieth 60/1 – 0.5pt each-way 8 places
Mackenzie Hughes 250/1 – 0.5pt each-way 10 places
You are dealing with a low floor when it comes to JORDAN SPIETH, but equally one of the highest ceilings among players trading at his sort of odds. The Texan has never quite been able to rediscover the glory days of his early twenties, but after belated surgery on a wrist injury, he recorded four top tens for the season up to the US Open, in which his tie for 23rd was a solid effort too.
His odds since have lengthened further because of his withdrawal from the Travelers Championship, citing a shoulder injury. That is obviously a concern, but he has taken four weeks off since to recuperate, as well as becoming a father for the third time. The freshening up could well have done him some good.
Though the Masters will always be associated as his major, his Open record is now just as impressive. He has never missed a cut, earning five top tens in 11 Opens, including his frankly ridiculous triumph at Birkdale in 2017, and nine top 30s in a row. They include a tie for 20th here six years ago when inside the top ten going into the final round before ballooning to a 77 on a tricky day of conditions.
That he has performed so consistently when his career has gone through significant ups and downs speaks to his suitability to this form of golf. His major efforts this season are mixed, but 14th at Augusta and 23rd at Oakmont are efforts which show he has not been far away. For a golfer so often prone to overthinking and oversharing, the freeing nature of playing just after becoming a father once again could also prove a positive.
At much bigger prices, a flier may be worth taking on MACKENZIE HUGHES, who appeals as the best bet at enormous odds.
The Canadian missed the cut at the Scottish Open, but he has done that in three of the past four seasons. It cannot be considered a surprise, but it has also proved no guide to his capabilities in this event.
Sixth at Royal St George’s in 2021 was his best major performance and came just one month after he shared the lead going into the final round of the US Open at Torrey Pines before a lost tree ball contributed to a plummet to 15th. Nevertheless, those two efforts show he is comfortable blocking out major championship noise and competing, while he was 16th at Troon last year having been fourth after round one.
Going back to the Fall Series of the PGA Tour, Hughes has seven top tens for the season, so although his form has dipped of late, he is capable of serious form. His positive strokes gained come from his play around the greens, which always has to be stellar at the Open and could see him compete where so few of his price will be able to.