The Tingle Creek has been a Grade 1 race since 1994 and it’s attracted some of the top chasers from both sides of the Irish Sea in many renewals, given its audience some incredible races. Here is Dave Young’s study of the trends to guide you towards the winner.
There has been no Irish winner in the race since 2016 when Un De Sceaux won for Willie Mullins and last years victor Jonbon will be looking to add his name to the list of multiple winners including, Politologue, Sire De Grugy, Master Minded, Twist Magic, Kauto Star, Moscow Flyer, Flagship Uberalles and Sound Man.
I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this feature Grade 1 race.
KEY TRENDS
- Should have an OR of 161 or higher but preferably 167 or higher
- Will probably be no older than 9 years old
- Look to horses who ran at Exeter, Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
- Should have run and preferably won at Sandown if aged 7 years old or more
- Should have won at least half of their career chase starts
- Should have won a Grade 1 before now or at least multiple Grade 2’s
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 3/24 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
All age bands are not profitable to back blind and this century the win rate gradually declines with age from 20% for 5yo’s, 19% for both 6yo’s and 7yos, 13% for both 8yo’s and 9yo’s and then 8% for 10yo’s. Interestingly, in the last decade, 8yo’s and 9yo’s both have a much higher strike rate with 25% and 22% respectively. Seems very individual to each renewal.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/24 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)
Backing favourites blind this century has shown a £4.96 profit and here have been 9 odds-on favourites this century with 6 of those winning but only showing a profit of 20p. Following both those in the last decade would have resulted in a small loss in each.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 167 or more – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
Backing all 161 or higher rated horses would result in a small 50p loss this century however if you were to back all runners rated 167 or higher blind in the same period you’d have shown a £13.71 profit from a £30 outlay.
In the last decade, if you backed all 161 or higher rated horses you would have shown a £4.38 profit from a £34 outlay and if you backed the 167 or higher runners blind you’d have shown a £7.55 profit from £13 outlay.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Cheltenham, Exeter or Sandown – 14/24 (58%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 60 Days – 15/24 (62.5%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran 120 days ago or more – 9/24 (37.5%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed 1st – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Placed Top 2 – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
With this being such a prestigious Grade 1 it’s not surprising that most winners will be coming here having placed top 2 last time out and half of the winners had won last time out too. More often than not, the winner of this race will have had a prep run this season but it’s not essential. Horses who last ran in Exeter (Gold Cup), Cheltenham (Shloer or Champion Chase) or Sandown (Celebration Chase) have won 90% of the last 10 renewals.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 17/22 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Sandown – 14/17 (82%) & 7/8 (88%)
We’ve had a couple of renewals at Cheltenham instead of Sandown so the stats have been tweaked to remove those. Sandown course form is desirable but not essential, the same is true for winning course form. That said, 4 of the 5 winners who hadn’t run here were aged 6 or 5 so older horses should have really been tested at the track and ideally have won.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 9 or fewer RUNS over fences – 12/24 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won 50% or more of races over fences – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
As many winners had had double figure chase starts as haven’t, but in the last decade 70% of winners had only single figure chase starts. The solid and consistent career chase metric is having 5 or more chase wins in their career. Also, winners are expected to have won at least half of their chase races.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race had already won a Grade 1 and the exceptions are Kauto Star as a 5yo who had won a Grade 3 as his best result prior, Sire De Grugy who had 2 Grade 2 wins, Dodging Bullets who had 3 Grade 2 wins and Politologue who had 2 Grade 2 win.
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