There has been no Irish winner in the race since 2016 and Jonbon added his name to the list of multiple winners of the race including the likes of Politologue, Sire De Grugy, Master Minded, Twist Magic, Kauto Star, Moscow Flyer, Flagship Uberalles and Sound Man.
I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this feature Grade 1 race.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites have a strong record in this race and are profitable to back blind
- Must have a minimum OR of 161 but preferably 167 or higher
- Look to horses who last ran at Cheltenham, Exeter or Sandown
- Should have placed top 2 last time out
- Has been to Sandown but more importantly has won at Sandown
- Has 5 or more wins over fences and has won at least half of their chase races
- Has won multiple Grade 1s
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
No age bracket is profitable to back blind this century and the losses increase with age, as does the strike rates. 20% for 5yos, 19% for 6yos, 18% for 7yos, 15% for 8yos, 13% for 9yos and 7% for 10yos.
In the last decade it’s true again that no age bracket is profitable to simply back blind, but curiously the strike rates increase with age from 13% for both 6yos and 7yos up to 31% for 8yos and 29% for 9yos
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
You’d receive a 21% ROI simply backing favourites blind in the last decade and no winner has come from outside the front 4 in the market. Second favourites take the hit on losses though in the last decade with the other three winning market positions all profitable blind.
Favourites are also profitable to follow blind this century at a near 20% ROI but they’re the only market position to be profitable blind over this longer period.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 167 or more – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
It’s clear that this Grade 1 is a high-end race which takes some winning and in line with the good record of favourites is the confirmation that the winner must be a 160’s+ horse at a minimum.
It’s profitable to back all runners with an OR of 161 or higher blind across both periods and that profit increases by a long way this century if raising the bar to 167 or higher. In the last decade, the profit increases only by £1 but the ROI more than doubles.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Cheltenham, Exeter or Sandown – 15/25 (60%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 60 Days – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran 120 days ago or more – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed 1st – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed Top 2 – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
With only one Irish trained winner in the last decade we’ve seen an increase in the number of winners coming from either Cheltenham, Exeter or Sandown. It’s down to the individual whether a prep run is required or not and while most winners had won or placed Top 2 last time out, this is true for most losers too so isn’t profitable to back blind.
COURSE FORM (Excluding 2000 and 2010 when moved to Cheltenham)
- Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 18/23 (78%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Sandown – 15/18 (83%) & 8/9 (89%)
Course form is very useful here and if you were to back all runners blind who had been to Sandown and had won at Sandown in the last decade you’d be making money. Just following horses who had run at the course wasn’t profitable in the same period, so winning course form is what we’re looking for here.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 9 or fewer RUNS over fences – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won 50% or more of races over fences – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
Experience certainly holds weight in these contests and the minimum requirement is to have had 7 chase runs but not necessarily more than 9.
Having 5 or more wins is essential, and this is somewhat covered in the fact that most winners had won at least half of their chase races
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 21/25 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
Grade 1 winning form is essential and 8 of the 9 who had won a Grade 1 already had won more than one.