Reading the general thoughts of racing folk on Twitter over the last week or so, you’d easily be convinced that every single favourite in the non-handicaps is going to win! On festival week, I’ll have some stronger opinions for the main Tips Den column but for Ante-Post and fun purposes, here are two more horses at big prices to go alongside our bets in the four championship races.
RSA Chase
No More Heroes and More Of That head the market for the RSA and despite coming from different walks of life, they’re hard to split on form. Slight preference would be for No More Heroes, but at around 11/4 and 5/1 respectively, it takes a brave man to confidently side with either at this stage.
Below the “big two” here, there is a clutch of horses priced between 14/1 and 20/1. The like of Seeyouatmidnight, Blaklion and Drumacoo are solid novice chasers, but would you call any of them an RSA Chase winner based on all we know? Perhaps not. Willie Mullins could run any one of Pont Alexandre, Outlander or Roi Des Francs and for ante-post purposes I have absolutely zero interest in backing a Willie Mullins horse only for it to turn up in another race. But whatever he does run will obviously command respect. For all it is worth, Roi Des Francs fits the bill best from the Mullins lot for me.
A horse I have loved for a long time and the one I suggest backing is the Harry Fry trained mare BITOFAPUZZLE, who is available at 25/1 with William Hill, 20/1 generally. It is a shame that she unseated last time out at Thurles, in truth her jumping there was never as fluent as it usually is and I’m more than happy to put a line through it as a bad day. That run aside, this fine looking mare won 7 of her 9 career starts to date, including a Listed bumper at Cheltenham, an excellent 3rd in last year’s Mares’ Hurdle at the festival and a Grade 1 win at Fairyhouse the following month. Slick jumping is usually a key asset to her qualities as a racehorse, she is very tough and game and her chasing debut at Exeter was a joy to watch.
Female winners of the RSA Chase don’t happen, but then few are good enough to contest it. Adriana Des Mottes made a good fist of it in 4th for Willie Mullins last year and maybe Bitofapuzzle can be the one to make good use of a 7lb allowance and run a big race if Harry Fry and connections see fit to take on the boys; something they’ve been considering for some time for the horse. The trip of 3m is right up her street, she is a Grade 2 winner over hurdles at 3m and should very much appreciate the step up in trip.
Fry has her entered in at Sandown and Wetherby this weekend, so hopefully she can get her season back on track with a solid round of jumping. In the meantime, 1pt E/w at 25/1 will do me for a punt in the race.
JLT Chase
What Killultagh Vic did last time out was extraordinary and he is a solid favourite for the JLT Novices’ Chase on World Hurdle day, as a handicap hurdle winner at the festival last year to back up his clear credentials on chase form. That horse aside, Bristol De Mai and Sizing John make loads of each-way appeal at around 12/1 apiece, but I’m happy to let the cards fall where they may in terms of running plans and see where they turn up on the day.
At a huge price of 33/1, the horse I suggest backing is the Jessica Harrington trained ROCK THE WORLD, who was a good hurdler but has come into his own over fences and would be too a big a price if allowed to take his chance on Thursday. Rock The World was absolutely superb over his fences when winning his beginners’ chase at Ballinrobe last May and I urge readers to have a watch of that replay just to see how a horse should jump fences! Since then he hasn’t been out of the first two over fences in five runs and he clocked a good speed figure at Cheltenham went sent there for a class two novice chase at the Show meeting back in October. He managed to get the better of Dormello Mo and Qewy comfortably enough, hardly what you could call the kind of form needed to beat the market leaders in this, but what it did show us is that Rock The World enjoys the track and that valuable experience of Cheltenham is now in the locker, which is obviously a positive.
On the face of it, Rock The World has a miniature mountain to climb to get involved in terms of that difficult-to-quantify element we call "Class". But in reality, perhaps his task is a bit more realistic than odds of 33/1 imply. At Leopardstown last time out, Killultagh Vic produced an RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 153 and a Topspeed figure of 121. Bristol De Mai last time out at Haydock produced RPR 158 & TS 132, while Sizing John is yet to break the 150 RPR mark in three runs over fences to date.
At Cheltenham last time out, Rock The World produced an RPR of 153 and a TS figure of 125, so when you look at this, along with the prices of 5/2 Vs 33/1 about the favourite and the selection, the value is pretty clear to see. He jumps as good as any novice around, loves decent ground and the step up to 2m4f would appear to be an ideal move for the horse. Harrington said he would enjoy a good winter break after his win in October and although he has an entry in the Arkle and a handicap mark of 145, the JLT Novices’ Chase is surely the correct race to run him in. Given a bit of luck in running, his racing experience and ability to jump so well could just bring him into the equation as the race unfolds.
1pt E/w at 33/1 with the majority of firms is the call.
Let me know what you think of these! Fire me a tweet on Twitter: KOM_GGRacing