I was saddened to hear that our National fancy Missed Approach won’t make it to Aintree this year, but hopefully he can prove a good candidate in 12 months time. By pure coincidence, I looked at the weights and nestled upon a second fancy for the race about an hour before I found out the first one wouldn’t be running…
“You have to go all the way back to 1940 to find the last seven-year-old winner of the Grand National” is one horse racing fact I will be happy to see the back of. Are we really suggesting a 7yo can’t win, in 2019 and beyond? I’m not having any of it. Going way back, there has been 23 7yo winners of the National, not to mention a raft of 5yo & 6yo winners. The modern race, until recently at least, has appeared to favour those of the 9-11yo vintage in terms of age and experience. But 8yos have won the Grand National 3 of the past 4 years, a 9yo but fairly unexposed Rule The World the outlier. It is also true that the all of the last twelve winners had run over fences 10 or more times, so casting age aside, that sets a pretty clear bar in terms of a favoured level of experience jumping larger obstacles. Overall, I’d rate that experience to be more relevant than bare age in terms of writing off the chances of a horse here. In terms of ticking boxes though, winning form over 3m+ in Class 3+ company is always a general positive, as is having a positive experience in another “National” style marathon contest.
Ignoring his age (and colour, if you still think greys can’t win at Aintree), David Pipe’s RAMSES DE TEILLEE looks every inch a Grand National winner. I backed a fiendishly well-handicapped Elegant Escape in the Welsh Grand National, as I suspect much of the betting public did too — it was his day. Colin Tizzard’s eventual winner was always going well and is essentially quite a class act, but from very early on in that race, the eye was drawn to a free-going, enthusiastic jumping Ramses De Teillee. As the action unfolded, it become pretty clear this grey was going to run a big race and I think he was somewhat unlucky not to win it. He hit four out quite hard, nearly sending David Noonan into orbit in the process. He was checked for a run by the winner after that, and had to switch the direction of his efforts twice; it was subtle and didn’t dent his overall momentum, but it did make life that bit harder when he least needed it. Ramses De Teillee kept finding and trying at the one pace and I reckon if asked he could’ve merrily plodded around again. I fancied Ramses De Teille quite a bit for the Haydock Grand National Trial last time out and thought he would win. Robinsfirth became a threat when there was some confident money for the horse beforehand. Ramses De Teille once again moved through the race like a marathon specialist, travelling and jumping very sweetly under his regular pilot. Too well in fact, as he was in front four fences from home, which is a long old way from the winning line at Haydock.
The handsome 7yo grey went down fighting again in second though and on form/speed ratings, built on his Welsh National performance with a slightly better one here. A Racing Post Rating/Topspeed combo of 156/132 at Chepstow, following by 158/139 at Haydock, represents some of the handicap best form available in this field. Ramses De Teille will run off 149 in the 2019 Grand National, which makes him a very well handicapped horse for my money. As things stand, he’ll shoulder 10st 5lb and currently sits at number 41 in the entries list. Even if old rival Elegant Escape ended up as top weight, which is unlikely but possible, Ramses De Teille would still end up carrying well under 11st here and for my money, he is a tremendous value bet at current odds of 40/1 @ Unibet, 33/1 in several other places. David Pipe has said the horse will skip Cheltenham and head straight to Aintree. Our lad looks a young horse perfectly suited to the modern Grand National, which has much more of an emphasis on speed, tactically sustainable pace and fast, nimble jumping.
The sole 7yo in last year’s renewal was also a grey, a nice mare at that called Baie Des Iles, who went off at 16/1 on the day and ran well to complete the course, finishing 12th. It is a poor comparison, granted, but if Ramses De Teille is the only 7yo in the 2019 contest, he is an altogether more likely winner of the Grand National than Baie Des Illes was in terms of pure form and seeming ability. We know he’s heading for the race, which is a bonus, and all told I’m struggling to know why he isn’t half the odds he currently is. The 7yo stat only holds so much weight and as for its ongoing relevance, I feel it is on shaky legs given the complexion of the task at hand these days.
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