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Topham Chase Tips - 100/1 Outsider Can Cause Shock Over National Fences

Topham Chase Tips - 100/1 Outsider Can Cause Shock Over National Fences

The Topham Handicap Chase is the other handicap run over the Grand National fences during Aintree’s big meeting in April. As an appetiser for the main dish on Saturday, Joe Napier has previewed the Friday feature below, giving his 1-2-3 selections.

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BILL BAXTER

(Warren Greatrex/James Bowen)

Last year’s winner, the grey Bill Baxter took superbly to these famous fences 12 months ago to record a fourth chase success of his season. He arrived in superb form and was always prominent, defeating Fantastic Lady by a little under two lengths, pulling 13 lengths and more clear of third and beyond.

His mark has dropped all the way back down to just 1lb higher than his winning rating a year ago. However, he does not arrive in anything like the same form, so though he has shown glimpses at Carlisle and Haydock, he has a little to prove despite being a well-supported favourite.


SHAKEM UP’ARRY

(Ben Pauling/Ben Jones)

Now a Cheltenham Festival winner, on a day where football managers were winning every other race, Shakem Up’arry will forgo his Grand National entry (was unlikely to make the cut) in order to run here off his revised mark. Part-owned by Harry Redknapp, there is much more to recommend him on on recent form than the favourite.

Both his wins came on soft or heavy ground on Cheltenham’s new course, though he was third and fourth in the last two seasons at this meeting on the Mildmay Course (over 2m and 3m1f). This will be his first experience of the National fences, but he;s a good jumper and a 6lb rise for his Festival success is not harsh.

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YOUR DARLING

(Ben Pauling/Kielan Woods)

It has been a superb season for Ben Pauling, but it would be some training performance to get the enigmatic Your Darling to win a race of this nature. That is not because the nine-year-old lacks ability, as he is capable of very high levels of form at his best, usually when fresh. That was demonstrated at Ascot in November, his first run for 112 days, and he has been off since then too.

That nine-length win has ensured a 9lb rise, but he is capable of improving even further. Soft ground poses more of a question (he has not won on the surface since a heavy ground bumper win at Newbury in January 2020), but his preparation is ideal and he is another very sound jumper.


JAMES DU BERLAIS

(Willie Mullins/Paul Townend)

Willie Mullins won back-to-back renewals of this in 2019 and 2021 (no race in 2020), with Paul Townend partnering Cadmium to an 8/1 success in the first of those years. Both of his winners were notable for prominent rides and extremely cosy successes and though that run came to an end, he had a 50/1 third in Annamix in 2022 and Fan De Blues was sixth at 100/1 last year.

James Du Berlais has run well for a long way in three successive handicaps at Leopardstown and Cheltenham over 2m4f-3m, and is now running off a 1lb lower mark than when eight lengths behind Shakem Up’arry. He will almost certainly be up there again and rates a good each-way chance.


LIFE IN THE PARK

(Henry De Bromhead/Rachael Blackmore)

Cheltenham represented a season’s best from Life In The Park, who was beaten just under three lengths by Shakem Up’arry. He is 1lb higher for that fourth-placed effort, but showed that these middle distance trips are pretty much ideal for him and his mark remains relatively kind compared to other Irish-trained runners.

One issue is that he has not won since his chase debut over fences. He has five thirds since then, and regularly goes well in handicap company on any ground, but how much he can be expected to win is open to debate.

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THE FIELD

Last year’s runner-up Fantastic Lady is back for revenge, though is another who has been below her best this term. Her fifth in the Grand Sefton in November was a decent effort, but was pulled up at Doncaster in mares’ only company and is 3lb higher than a year ago.

Arizona Cardinal possesses a similar profile to Bill Baxter last year, with three wins this term. Kandoo Kid has been as consistent, but often second, while Mullins also sends Aime Desjy and Classic Getaway, the latter the top-weight, the former arriving off the back of a ready first win over fences.

Empire Steel races off quite a high weight, but he could be a horse who relishes this jumping test over this trip, with Francky Du Berlais bringing cross country form into the race.

Another of particular note among the big outsiders is Embittered for Gordon Elliott. He is the yard’s only runner in the race, and Jack Kennedy skips it in favour of being ready for the National, but he is only 6lb higher than for an easy handicap success earlier this year over Shantreusse, a much shorter price here.. No horse that raced wide finished in the top five of the Plate at Cheltenham (in which many of this field ran), while only one came from the rear to finish in the first six.


VERDICT

A wild swing is taken on EMBITTERED, who is the clear outsider in the field, but had excuses when never in the race at Cheltenham, yet still wasn’t beaten miles. Based on his Navan Listed win earlier this season over Shantreusse, conditions should suit and his mark is far from impossible to overcome if put more into the race. Shakem Up’arry should go well again as a strong jumper with James Du Berlais another in with fair claims.

  1. Embittered
  2. Shakem Up’arry
  3. James Du Berlais
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