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    Welsh Grand National Trends - Chepstow Staying Showpiece Analysed

    David Young
    David Young
    December 15, 2025
    Welsh Grand National Trends - Chepstow Staying Showpiece Analysed

    23 fences are jumped in the Welsh National, a race which has been run on soft or heavy ground in all the last 19 renewals so it’s mud larks to the fore. The race used to be held on Easter Tuesday but was brought forward to attract better horses although with the risk or bad weather. Since 1979 it’s been held in late December with the 27th now the scheduled fixture date.

    I’ve had a look at the runnings this century and the last decade to try and figure out what it takes to win this festive centrepiece.

    • Must have 1-5 chase wins but preferably 2-4
    • 6-year-olds and 13-year-olds have the best strike rates
    • Likely to come from the front 4 in the betting at SP
    • Has run more than once this season and preferably has won this season
    • Ideally has course form and winning course form too, but could be a turning trend
    • Placed top 4 last time out but preferably top 3
    • Last ran between 18 to 54 days ago and did NOT fail to complete

    AGE

    • 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
    • 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 12yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • 13yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)

    6-year-olds and 13-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade with the best strike rates but a long way across both periods.

    PRICE

    • 14/1 to 20/1 – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • Top 4 – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Favourite – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)

    Half of the winners came from the Top 3 in the betting but 60% came from the Top 4. The relevance of that is you would show a -1% ROI backing every runner from the Top 4 in the betting, but you’d have shown a 55% ROI backing every other runner instead for a hefty £186 loss this century.

    Favourites are loss makers at above a -25% ROI this century but they show 40% ROI in the last decade.

    CAREER FORM

    • Has failed to complete in career – 20/25 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
    • 2-4 chase wins – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%) (others has either 1 or 5)
    • Less than 10 chase runs – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)

    All winners this century had between 1 and 5 chase wins and most fell into the bracket of 2-4 wins although this isn’t a profitable angle to use alone.

    Most winners had failed to complete in their career over hurdles or fences but 3 of the last 4 hadn’t, so make of that what you will.

    Marginally more winners had 9 or fewer chase runs but the ROI split backing those vs those who didn’t fall into that category sits about the same, so career form might not be the way to help find the winner of this particular race.

    SEASON FORM

    • Ran more than once this season – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Won this season – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)

    Every winner this century has run this season, and most had run more than once.

    More than half of winners had won this season too, and 7 of the last 10 tick that box. Of those 7, 6 won last time out.

    DISTANCE FORM

    • Had run over 28 furlongs or further – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Had won over 28 furlongs or further – 8/19 (42%) & 3/6 (50%)

    4 of the last 7 winners had NOT run at 28 furlongs or further before now which is a bit of a turning trend as two of the other 3 had not run more than twice at these extreme trips.

    Horses who had tried 28 furlongs or further had won in around half of the cases, so winning distance form should be seen a big positive.

    COURSE FORM

    • Has RUN at Chepstow – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Has WON at Chepstow – 14/19 (74%) & 5/9 (56%)

    There have been 6 winners this century without a look at Chepstow including last years victor Val Dancer. Still, more winners had been here before and the bulk of those had winning course form too.

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Won – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Top 2 – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Top 3 – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Top 4 – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Did not finish – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • Ran between 18 and 54 Days Ago – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
    • Ran at Chepstow – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%) +£43.50 to back blind this century

    No winner of the Welsh National this century had failed to complete last time out and in fact most winners placed top 3.

    Every winner ran between 18 and 54 days ago and it’s been profitable to back runners blind who last ran at Chepstow this century although it’s been a small (-£1.50) loss maker in the last decade.

    OFFICAL RATING

    • Rated between 131 and 145 – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Rated exactly 131 or 145 – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)

    Rating bands can be a bit of a red herring as typically the number of runners within a band will match the number of winners. Each period measured outperforms number of runners vs number of winners, but each shows a loss if just backing blind therefore isn’t much use.

    Backing just the bottom and top figure in the band, 131 & 145, you’d have shown a healthy ROI backing blind of 157% this century and 45% from the last decade.

    WEIGHT CARRIED

    • 10-0 to 10-10 – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)

    Most winners have carried between 10 stone and 10 stone 10lbs however this isn’t a profitable angle as most runners also fall between these numbers.