All eyes head to Newbury on Saturday 7th February for the hugely competitive William Hill Hurdle and our trends guru Dave Young has delved through recent renewals of the 2m 69y contest and picks out some key stats to be aware of.
Take a look at all the latest trends and information ahead of the William Hill Hurdle, which will be off at 3.20pm.
Britian’s richest handicap hurdle and there have been some great names on the honour’s roll and it’s a big target for many yards.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century (race cancelled in 2006 and 2009) and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7 or younger but preference goes to 5 and 6-year-olds
- Respect favourites and third favourites, both profitable to back blind
- Preference goes to runners carrying 11-01 to 11-09 inclusive
- Likely has no more than 9 runs over hurdles outside of France
- Likely has no more than 1 win over hurdles outside of France
- Preference for horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 9/24 (37%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
The only winner older than seven this century was Geos who came back to win another renewal in 2004 having won the race in 2000 as a 5-year-old.
This century, 5 and 6-year-olds operate at a 7% strike rate but it’s only 5-year-olds who are profitable to back blind and that’s thanks to 33/1 and 50/1 winners.
7-year-olds have won this race on multiple occasions but have just a 4% strike rate which is just 1% better than 9-year-olds who have just one win this century, as mentioned, a previous winner of the race.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6/1 or shorter – 9/24 (37%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade with a £9.25 & £4.50 profit respectively. Third favourites show a greater profit in the last decade at £7 to a £1 level stake from two winners and they show an £8 profit this century with two further winners.
You’d find more winners than just backing favourites alone if you followed all runners with an SP of 6/1 or shorter, but it wouldn’t make you as much profit, although it’s still profitable to follow blind across both periods.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 131 and 135 – 9/24 (37%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners carrying 10-0 to 10-09 – 12/24 (50%) & 3/10 (30%)
It’s hard to whittle down the runners by weight or OR as most fall into the same bands, but runners with an OR of 131 to 135 have found nine winners this century and while not profitable to back blind, if you squeeze the range to 132 to 134 you lose three winners, but show a £12 profit blind.
Weight is another 50/50 split but there have been no winners this century carrying 10-10 to 11-0 inclusive. That’s important to note. The lower range holding 50% of the winners though is profitable to back blind for £13 where as the higher range of 11-01 to 11-09 holds the other 50%, but shows a small £3.25 loss this century.
Combining these measures for this century returns a solid 45% ROI to SP alone, but it shows a -57% ROI in the last decade so it’s a trend that has turned.
Just backing all runners with a weight of 11-01 and 11-09 inclusive shows a 14% ROI to SP, that’s probably the band you want to be looking for nowadays.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/24 (33%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out – 12/24 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran at Sandown or Cheltenham – 9/24 (27%) & 5/10 (50%)
It’s not profitable to back last-time-out winners blind, but across both periods it is profitable to follow either or both second and third placed finishers from last time out.
This century, it’s profitable to back all last time out runners from either Sandown or Cheltenham but it’s not profitable in the last decade.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had NOT run at Newbury – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had 9 or fewer RUNS over hurdles (exc France)– 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 0 or 1 WINS over hurdles (exc France) – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
While nine of the last 10 winners had nine or fewer runs over hurdles, it’s a 35% losing ROI if you were to just follow that blind, but if you coupled it with horses who has either one or zero wins outside of France, it’s profitable with an 84% ROI.
More winners than not had NOT already raced at Newbury, but I wouldn’t want to discount good course form in this instance.