York Ebor Meeting Day 1 Trends: Thoughts for every race

The Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes is the feature race on day one of York‘s Ebor Festival next week. Dave Young has the trends analysed for every race, to guide you towards some early winners on the Knavesmire.

1.50 Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap – 5½f

Not quite the full ‘dash’ to kick things off with the opening race coming over 5.5f but it is a race which attracts some top-class horses with the likes of Equilateral, Dakota Gold and El Astronaute all tasting stakes success in their careers.

ALL of the last 10 winners ran within the last 22 days
ALL of the last 10 winners had no career win further than 6f
9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 12 or lower
9 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
8 of the last 10 winners were sent off between 10/1 and 22/1
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or older but 3 of the last 4 winners were aged 4
7 of the last 10 winners did NOT carry between 9-0 and 9-09
7 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out (both profitable blind)
4 of the last 10 winners held an OR of exactly 93 (364% ROI backing blind)
4 of the last 10 winners last ran at Goodwood

“Last ran 22 days ago less, no career win further than 6f, drawn in stall 12 or lower and probably is NOT the favourite. Likely placed Top 2 last time out and probably NOT carrying 9-0 to 9-09”

2.25 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

A highly anticipated race for the 2yo’s comes up on Race 2 of Day 1 and there has been no winning favourite of this race in the last 10 renewals. Still, plenty of fancied runners have landed this contest although it took over 20 years for Aidan O’Brien to find another winner of this race following his penultimate winner back in 2000!

ALL of the last 10 winners won last time out (50% ROI backing blind)
ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
ALL of the last 10 winners were 2^nd to 5^th in the betting (all profitable blind)
9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 20 and 33 days ago (the other was 40 days)
9 of the last 10 winners had won at 7 furlongs
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or higher
Godolphin are 0 from 6 in the last 10 renewals with 5 of those 6 sent off as favourite

“Won last time out, last ran 40 days ago or less but preferably 33 days ago or less. Is NOT the favourite, has won at 7 furlongs and ideally drawn in stall 5 or higher”

3.00 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) – 1m4f

Stepping up in class for our next race as the Group 2 Great Voltigeur stakes is on show for the 3yo’s. 5 of the last 10 winners came from the Irish Derby but only one of those won both races.

ALL of the last 10 winners had 3-5 runs that season
9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 109 or higher
8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
8 of the last 10 winners had their furthest run at 1m4f
7 of the last 10 winners had won a Group race of some sort
7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 46 and 61 days ago
7 of the last 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), John Gosden (2) or Charlie Appleby (2)
5 of the last 10 winners were the favourite
5 of the last 10 winners came from the Irish Derby (Only 1 won both races)

“Has 3-5 runs this season, has won this season but probably did NOT win last time out. Holds an OR of 109 or higher and has their furthest run at 1m4f”

3.35 Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) – 1m2½f

Undoubtedly one the best Group 1’s of the entire season and this year Ombudsman bids to become the first horse since 1996 to win this race twice. He’s set to face Constitution River who has proven himself to be an above average 3yo so this will once again be a race to savour.

ALL of the last 10 winners were aged between 3 and 5
ALL of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
ALL of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1
9 of the last 10 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter
9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 121 or higher
9 of the last 10 winners had run at about 10f (8 had won too)

“Will be aged 3 to 5, having 3 runs or more this season and has already won a Group 1. Likely to be sent off 4/1 or shorter, rated 121 or higher and has run and won at 10f”

4.10 Sky Bet Stayers Handicap – 2m½f

Another decent handicap comes up next with last years winner Santorini Star going on to land a Group 2 contest straight after. Certainly seems to take a good one to win this looking at the performance figures of winners with ALL of the last 10 winners posting a 96 or higher RPR and 7 of those having to produce 104 or higher!

9 of the last 10 winners had no more than 4 runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners placed Top 4 last time out (3 won last time out)
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-03 or less
7 of the last 10 winners were aged either 4 (4) or 7 (3)
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or higher
5 of the last 10 winners were 1^st (3) or 2^nd (2) favourite

“No more than 4 runs this season, placed Top 4 last time out and carrying no more than 9-03. Respect runners aged 4 or 7 and those drawn in stall 8 or higher”

4.45 Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies’ Handicap – 5f (New Race 2020)

The penultimate race on Day 1 is a Fillies’ Handicap that was introduced in 2020, so we have just 6 renewals to look at. Two of those renewals were taken by Designer which could indicate this is a target race and that might be helpful going forward.

ALL of the 6 winners were aged 3 (3) or 4 (3)
ALL of the 6 winners were NOT the favourite
ALL of the 6 winners were NOT drawn in stalls 6 to 12 inclusive
ALL of the 6 winners carried 9-0 or more
ALL of the 6 winners were rated at least 87
ALL of the 6 winners had not run in the last 3 weeks
5 of the 6 winners had no more than 4 runs that season
4 of the last 6 winners failed to finish Top 3 last time out (the other 2 both won)

“Will be aged 3 or 4, not the favourite and not drawn in stalls 6-12. Will carry 9-0 or more, be rated 87 or higher and has not run in the last 3 weeks. Probably has no more than 4 runs this season”

5.20 Sky Bet Nursery Handicap – 6f

The closing race for Day 1 is a nursery handicap which produced a £10,000 tricast last year win a 33/1 winner, 22/1 second and 14/1 third. Maybe this is the race of the day to find a big-priced winner, or maybe last year just completely went against the trends.

9 of the last 10 winners were drawn no higher than stall 12 (last year’s winner from 22)
9 of the last 10 winners carried no more than 9-02
8 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 18 and 30 days ago (2 others ran inside last 6 days)
6 of the last 10 winners won last time out
3 of the last 10 winners came from the Newmarket 6f Fillies Nursery (ran on 1^st August this year)

“Will be drawn no higher than stall 12 and carrying no more than 9-02. Probably isn’t the favourite and probably ran 18-30 days ago or in the last week”

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