York Ebor Meeting Day 2 Trends: Thoughts for every race

Minnie Hauk dazzled on day two of York‘s Ebor meeting when winning the Yorkshire Oaks a year ago. That race headlines the Thursday on the Knavesmire and Dave Young has run the trends for all seven races to aid your punting.

1.50 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 6f

Day 2 has the ladies to the fore and it kicks off with a Group 2 Fillies race for 2yo’s only. Ed Walker has won the last two renewals, and Tom Marquand has ridden two of the last three winners so this has the feel of a home game for the Brits and a race where the winner should be findable.

9 of the last 10 winners were NOT unbeaten that season (the one who was had 1 run)
8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
8 of the last 10 winners had run at 6 furlongs
7 of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 100
6 of the last 10 winners won last time out (profitable blind but not the last 2)

“Will have been beaten unless only once raced. Has 3 or more runs this season, comes from the Top 3 in the betting and has run at 6f holding an OR of 100 or higher”

2.25 Harry’s Half Million By Goffs – 6f

The second race on the card is another for the 2yo’s and it’s a huge £500,000 prize fund for purchases from Goffs Premier Yearling Sale. It’s a target race for many trainers although those target trainers have changed through the years. Brian Meehan has 3 wins in 4 years, then Kevin Ryan notched up back-to-back wins before William Haggas landed a hattrick in succession. 5 of the last 10 winners have been trained by Richard Hannon but it’s now Clive Cox who has taken the last 3 renewals.

ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner in the field
8 of the last 10 winners were trained by Clive Cox or Richard Hannon
8 of the last 10 winners had between 2 and 5 runs
8 of the last 10 winners had run no further than 6f
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stalls 2-7
4 of the last 10 winners last raced at Newbury
4 of the last 10 winners were the favourite

“NOT the highest rated runner, has 2 to 5 runs with the furthest run not beyond 6f and respect Clive Cox and Richard Hannon trained runners. Ideally drawn no higher than stall 7”

3.00 Sir Kevin Sinfield 7 in 7 Grand Finale Handicap – 1m

Previously known as the Clipper handicap, this 1m Heritage Handicap has seen some bias in the draw and has also thrown up some big-priced winners with a 40/1 and 28/1 shot taking 2 of the last 5 renewals.

ALL of the last 10 winners held an OR of 95 to 104
ALL of the last 10 winners had their furthest career win at 8f or 8.5f (profitable blind)
8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower (others were 14 and 15)
8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 4 or 5
8 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-13 to 9-06
8 of the last 10 winners had 3 to 6 runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners last raced between 16 and 26 days ago

“Holds an OR of 95 to 104, has their furthest career wins at 8f or 8.5f. Ideally drawn in stall 8 or lower, aged 4 or 5, carrying 8-13 to 9-06 and has 3 to 6 runs this season”

3.35 Legends Global Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies and Mares) – 1m4f

The feature race on Day 2 comes with the Yorkshire Oaks which is the only Oaks open to horses older than 3-years-old. That said, only 2 winners from the last 12 were NOT aged 3 and those two were Enable and Alpinista.

ALL of the last 10 winners last ran between 26 and 47 days ago
9 of the last 10 winners had won at 12 furlongs before now
8 of the last 10 winners won last time out
8 of the last 10 winners were 3-year-olds (other two were aged 5)
8 of the last 10 winners were the favourite
8 of the last 10 winners were already a Group 1 winner
8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 114 or higher
7 of the last 10 winners had 3-5 runs that season
6 of the last 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien (5 from the Irish Oaks)

“Last ran between 26 and 47 days ago and has won at 12f. Probably last time out, aged 3, the favourite and already a Group 1 winner and rated 114 or higher. Respect Aidan O’Brien runners”

4.10 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed) (Fillies and Mares) – 1m4f

Following on from the Yorkshire Oaks we have the Galtres Stakes which is a Listed race but over the same distance. This allows some Fillies and Mares who aren’t quite up to Group 1 level to contest on this great day of racing and it gives trainers other than Aidan O’Brien a chance for success with this race not on his CV although he’s had just 5 runners this century.

ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the 2^nd or 3^rd favourite
9 of the last 10 winners had their furthest win at between 10f and 12.5f
8 of the last 10 winners placed Top 3 last time out
7 of the last 10 winners were 3-year-olds (other two were aged 4)
7 of the last 10 winners last raced 19 to 33 days ago
5 of the last 10 winners were the favourite (profitable blind)

“Won’t be the 2^nd or 3^rd favourite, will have won at 10 to 12.5 furlongs, placed Top 3 last time out, a 3yo and last ran 19 to 33 days ago. Respect favourites”

4.45 Mews Hotel Ossett EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap – 7f (New race in 2020)

The penultimate race on Day 2 is a Nursery Handicap which was first run in 2020 and has only seen winners with a single-figure SP although just 1 favourite who came in last year. Andrew Balding has won three of the six renewals, and it’s typically won by a top tier jockey.

ALL of the 6 winners were sent off a single-figure priced SP
ALL of the 6 winners placed Top 3 last time out
ALL of the 6 winners had 3 or 4 runs that season
5 of the 6 winners were making their handicap debut (last 5)
5 of the 6 winners held an OR of 82 to 88 (last 5)
5 of the 6 winners carried no more than 9-03
4 of the 6 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher
4 of the 6 winners had won a race

“Will have 3 or 4 runs this season, placed Top 3 last time out and a single figure SP. Likely handicap debutant, rated 82 to 88 and carrying no more than 9-03”

5.20 British EBF Fillies’ Handicap – 7f

The closing race on the Day 2 card comes with a Fillies’ handicap over 7 furlongs but it’s not the most punter friendly getting out stakes with no winning favourite in the last 10 renewals and a 66/1 winner!

9 of the last 10 winners were 2^nd to 4^th in the betting (profitable blind – 98% ROI)
7 of the last 10 winners last raced 12 to 20 days ago
7 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out (5 won LTO)
7 of the last 10 winners were 3-year-olds (other 3 were 4-year-olds)
7 of the last 10 winners had 3 or 4 runs that season
7 of the last 10 winners did NOT have their furthest career win at 7f

“NOT the favourite but likely 2^nd to 4^th in the betting. Last ran 12 to 20 days ago, placed Top 2 last time out, aged 3 with 3 or 4 runs this season and their furthest career win is NOT at 7f”

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