York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Trends: Thoughts for every race

The third day of York’s Ebor meeting features one of the fastest Group 1s in the calendar, the Nunthorpe Stakes. Over the flying five furlongs on the Knavesmire, it is the feature race on Friday. Dave Young has the trends for that contest, as well as all the others on the third day of the Festival at York.

1.50 Sky Bet Mile Handicap – 1m

Day 3 kicks off with a mile handicap for 3-year-olds only and while there have been 3 winning favourites (including last years winner) there were 7 renewals between the last 2. Another race that also seems to have a strong draw bias.

ALL of the last 10 winners had between 3 and 5 runs that season
ALL of the last 10 winners had run at 8-furlongs or further before now
ALL of the last 10 winners had won in their last 3 completed starts (one unseated but won their race before)
9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower
8 of the last 10 winners last raced between 20 and 26 days ago
8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 91 or higher

“Has 3 to 5 runs this season and won within their last 3 runs. Has raced at a mile or further, drawn in stall 8 or lower, last raced between 20 and 26 days ago and holds an OR of 91 or higher”

2.25 Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) – 2m½f

The first Group race on Day 3 is for the stayers, and this contest became synonymous with Stradivarius who took this race 3 times over 4 years. It’s a race that’s been taken by mostly 5yo’s and older with the aforementioned Stradivarius as the only recent 4yo exception.

ALL of the last 10 winners had previously raced at York (5 had won)
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or older (Only 4yo winner was Stradivarius)
9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 111 or higher
9 of the last 10 winners had run either 2 or 3 times that season (the other had 4 runs)
9 of the last 10 winners had run at about 16f (8 of those had won)
8 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting (the last 8)
8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
6 of the last 10 winners came from the Goodwood Cup (4) or the Ascot Gold Cup (2)

“Will have raced at York, probably aged 5 or older with an OR of 111 or higher and having 2 or 3 runs this season. Has run and likely won at 16f”

3.00 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

The next Group race comes for 2-year-olds with the Gimcrack over 6 furlongs and previous Group 1 or 2 winners shoulder a 3lb penalty. 5 horses have had to carry that penalty in the last 10 renewals with only Lusail in 2021 successful in doing so.

ALL of the last 10 winners had raced at 6-furlongs (8 had won)
9 of the last 10 winners were not a previous Group winner
8 of the last 10 winners were NOT unbeaten
8 of the last 10 winners were sent of a single-figure price
7 of the last 10 winners last raced between 21 and 28 days ago
7 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out

“Has raced at 6f, is NOT already a Group 1 winner, has been beaten and is likely to be sent off a single-figure price. Preferably last ran 21 to 28 days ago and placed Top 2”

3.35 Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) – 5f

The feature race of Day 3 is the Nunthorpe Stakes where it’s speedsters to the fore and we’ve a few phenomenal performances in the last 10 years with the likes of Mecca’s Angel and Battaash. Quite a heavy draw bias to one side of the field but as Highfield Princess showed in 2022, the right horse can win from anywhere if they’re good enough.

ALL of the last 10 winners had raced at York before (7 had won)
ALL of the last 10 winners had a career win percentage of 28% or higher
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 to 7-years-old
9 of the last 10 winners last raced between 19 and 41 days ago (the other was 12 days ago)
9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower (the other was in 14 of 15)
8 of the last 10 winners were NOT unbeaten that season
8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
7 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1

“Will have run at York before and won at least a quarter of their career races. Will be aged 4 to 7, last ran between 19 and 41 days ago and drawn in stall 8 or lower”

4.10 Assured Data Protection Handicap – 1m4f

Back to the handicaps with race 4 on Day 3 and this is a contest that has been dominated by 4-year-olds for the last dozen renewals with just two 5-year-old exceptions. Only 1 winning favourite since the second last in 2007 suggests this might be a race to try and find something away from the head of the market.

ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 11 or lower
9 of the last 10 winners had their furthest career win between 10f and 12.5f
8 of the last 10 winners were 4-year-olds (94% ROI backing blind)
8 of the last 10 winners did NOT come from the Top 3 in the betting
8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 88 to 95
7 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-08 and 9-04
7 of the last 10 winner had their furthest career run between 10.5 and 12f
7 of the last 10 winners last raced at Ascot (3) Goodwood (2) or York (2)

“Did NOT win last time out, drawn in stall 11 or lower, has their furthest win between 10f and 12.5f, aged 4, not from the Top 3 in the betting and has an OR between 88 and 95”

4.45 British Stallion Studs EBF Convival Maiden Stakes – 7f

The penultimate race on Day 3 is a maiden stakes race which has seen one unraced winner from the last 10 renewals but typically there is some race experience to look at. The last 7 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting and 6 of those were from the Top 2, so this looks like a race that can be worked out.

7 of the last 10 winners last raced between 14 and 28 days ago (1 unraced and not the last 2)
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 7 or lower
7 of the last 10 winners were the 1^st (5) or 2^nd (2) favourite (profitable blind)
6 of the last 10 winners last ran at Ascot (4) or Sandown (2) (both profitable blind)

“Preferably last ran 14 to 28 days ago, drawn in stall 7 or lower, is the 1^st or 2^nd favourite and last raced at either Ascot or Sandown”

5.20 Sky Bet Fillies’ Handicap – 1m2½f (New Race in 2020)

The closing race on Day 3 is a fillies’ handicap over 10.5-furlongs and while there have been 4 winners with a single-figure SP, there has been no winning favourite. All 6 winners were drawn in stall 4 or lower so that could be a big help here.

ALL of the 6 winners were drawn in stall 4 or lower (4 from stalls 1(2) or 2(2))
5 of the 6 winners carried between 8-08 and 9-00
5 of the 6 winners had won that season
5 of the 6 winners last raced in a class 3 or better (not the last winner)
5 of the 6 winners had 12 or fewer career runs
4 of the 6 winners did NOT win last time out

“Will be drawn in stall 4 or lower, carrying 8-08 to 9-00, has won this season, raced in a class 3 or better last time out and has 12 or fewer career runs. Probably didn’t win last time out”

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