The fourth and final day of York’s Ebor meeting takes place on Saturday 22 August. Featuring the Ebor Handicap itself, and the Group 1 City Of York Stakes, Dave Young has analysed the card with all of the trends below.
1.50 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) – 1m1f
Saturday is the feature Raceday of the Ebor Festival and the card kicks off with a Group 3 over 9-furlongs which has a seen a variety of types land the spoils over the last 10 years. Three of those winners were winless from 4 runs this season yet two were sent off as favourite, so what does it take to predict the winner of this race?
- 9 of the last 10 winners had lost more than one that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished Top 3 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT previous Group winners
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran 27 days ago or less (the other was 35 days ago)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 5 (5) or 3 (3)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at least 4 times that season (the last 8)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an SP no bigger than 6/1
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from Goodwood (4) or Haydock (2) last time out
“Has lost this season and probably more than once. Finished Top 3 last time out, has NOT won a Group race, last ran 27 days ago or less and preference to those aged 3 or 5”
2.25 Sky Bet Melrose Handicap – 1m6f
The first Handicap on the final day is the Melrose which is seen as the Ebor for 3-year-old, especially since the removal of that age form the Ebor itself in 2019. Andrew Balding has trained 3 of the 6 winners so I’ve looked at what else my point to this years’ winner.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT raced at York
- ALL of the last 10 winners had no more than 2 career wins
- 9 of the last 10 winners had raced at between 12f and 14f
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won just one race that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out (3 of the last 5 did though)
- 7 of the last 10 winners last raced in a Handicap
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR between 92 and 96
“Has NOT raced at York, has no more than 2 career wins and probably just one win this season. Has raced at between 12f and 14f and respect those with an OR between 92 and 96”
3.00 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1) – 7f
The final Group 1 of the weeks comes over 7-furlongs and Kinross was a back-to-back winner in 2022 and 2023. From 2015 to 2019 (inclusive) there was a run of 3-year-old winners but there have been none since 2020.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had no more than 1 win that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7-furlongs
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off no bigger than 6/1
- 8 of the last 10 winners held an OR off 111 or higher
- 8 of the last 10 winners last raced between 24 and 42 days ago (6 were 24 or 25 days)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a Group 1 before now
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
“Has no more than one win this season, has won over 7f, is sent off no bigger than 6/1, holds an OR of 111 or higher, last ran 24-42 days ago, did NOT win last time out and hasn’t won a Group 1”
3.35 Sky Bet Ebor Handicap – 1m6f
The race the festival is named after, The Ebor finally takes centre stage and is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe so it’s no surprise to see the depth the race attracts. That said, the draw can have a huge influence, and it’s typically gone to the higher rated runner in recent years.
- ALL of the last 10 winners held an OR of 101 or higher
- 9 of the last 10 winners had not won more than one flat race that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2-4 flat wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners last raced 42 days ago or more
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-03 or more
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 18 or higher, or stall 1 or 2
“Holds an OR of 101 or higher, has no more than one flat win this season and has 2-4 career flat win in total. Last ran 42 days ago or more, aged 5 or 6 and carrying at least 9-03”
4.10 Sky Bet Constantine Handicap – 6f (New race in 2022 and a dead-heat in 2023)
Only 4 renewals of this contest but there have been 5 winners crowned with a dead-heat in 2023 between the inaugural winner Summerghand and Albasheer. Daniel Tudhope has his name on this trophy on 3 occasions so his mounts must be respected.
- 4 of the 5 winners were sent off no bigger than 7/1
- 4 of the 5 winners carried at least 9-00
- 4 of the 5 winners had raced at York before
- 3 of the 5 winners were ridden by Daniel Tudhope
“Likely to be no bigger than 7/1, carrying no less than 9-00 and has raced at York before. Respect Daniel Tudhope mounts”
4.45 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – 5f
The penultimate race of Day 4 comes over the minimum trip of 5-furlongs and is a listed contest for the 2-year-olds. While there have been 3 winning favourites in the last 10 renewals there has also been no winner priced bigger than 13/2 so this certainly looks like a race where there is unlikely to be a shock.
- ALL of the last 10 winners came from the Top 5 in the market
- 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 7 or lower
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 92
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 3 or 4 runs
- 6 of the last 10 winners last raced at Goodwood
“Will be in the Top 5 in the market and did NOT win last time out. Preferably drawn in stall 7 or lower, holds and OR of 92 or more, has 3 or 4 runs and respect those coming from Goodwood last time out”
5.20 Sky Bet Finale Handicap – 1m2½f
The closing race of the week comes over the Juddmonte International 10.5-furlong trip and while you wouldn’t expect there to be a Group 1 winner in here, there have been a number of 100+ rated winners of this contest.
- ALL of the last 10 winners last ran at Goodwood (5), Newmarket (3) or York (2)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last raced between 22 and 43 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 9 or lower
- 8 of the last 10 winners place Top 4 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at no further than 11-furlongs
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 97
- 7 of the last 10 winners had between 2 and 4 runs that season
“Last ran at Goodwood, Newmarket or York and preferably last ran between 22 and 43 days ago. Is drawn in stall 9 or lower, placed Top 4 last time out and had NOT raced at further than 11f”
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