With Aidan O’Brien responsible for 4 of the last 5 winners, is it as simple as following him blind to find the winner of the Yorkshire Oaks?
I’ve looked at every running this century and compared to the last 10 to see if we can work out just what it takes to find the winner of this race, including how helpful the trainer is.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw doesn’t really matter
- If you’re following the market blind, it’s profitable to stick with the favourite
- Respect the Top-Rated runners, especially if they’re sent off 7/4 or shorter
- Must be a Group 2 winner at least
- Look to those who have won 75% or more of their races this season
- Finished in the top 2 last time out
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
Draw might not be the most helpful trend to look at here with most renewals of this race having 8 or fewer runners. That said, there’s a balance in the last decade with 4 winners each from the highest or lowest three stalls.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 4/1 or lower – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
Backing favourites blind will make you money both this century and in the last decade. 7 of the last 10 favourites won and the other 3 placed.
Knowing the state of favourites, it’s no surprise that most winners were sent off at 4/1 or shorter but while that will make a small profit this century it’s a loss maker across the last 10 running’s.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 9/16 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
The Top-Rated runner is a profitable system to follow in the Yorkshire Oaks with a 30% ROI this century and 10% ROI in the last decade. Using this blind for this century would be more profitable than just backing Top Rated runners who were also the favourite, but you’d have made more in the last decade by applying both principles. Furthermore, every runner who was the Top Rated runner and sent off 7/4 or shorter has won since 2017 which significantly boost the ROI to 100%.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Top 2 last time out – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran in the last 16-60 days – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Last ran in the Irish Oaks – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
Most winners won last time out but that’s a loss maker to follow blind. Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago, with the bulk of those in the 31 to 60 day bracket, but either window is also not profitable to back blind. There have been many winners of this race who last ran in the Irish Oaks so that should be a race of interest going into this.
FORM
- Had won 75% or more of their races that season – 9/25 (36%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won 50% or more of their races in their career – 10/25 (40%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Previous Group 1 winner – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Previous Group 2 or better winner – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
There has certainly been a shift over the last decade compared to this century with far more winners having won 75% or more of their races that season and also having won 50% or more of their career races too. There has also been an increase in the percentage of winners with Group 2 or better form.
TRAINER
Aidan O’Brien and The Gosdens have been responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners. You wouldn’t make any money blind backing either trainer this century although Aidan O’Brien shows a small 30p profit in the last decade, thanks to 9/1 winner Warm Heart in 2023 more than anything.
J S Bolger has been profitable to follow across both periods measured so any of his trained runners must be respected but he holds no entries this year.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Content (IRE)
- 2023 – Warm Heart (IRE)
- 2022 – Alpinista (GB)
- 2021 – Snowfall (JPN)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Enable (GB)
- 2018 – Sea of Class (IRE)
- 2017 – Enable (GB)
- 2016 – Seventh Heaven (IRE)
- 2015 – Pleascach (IRE)
- 2014 – Tapestry (IRE)
- 2013 – The Fugue (GB)
- 2012 – Shareta (IRE)
- 2011 – Blue Bunting (USA)
- 2010 – Midday (GB)
- 2009 – Dar Re Mi (GB)
- 2008 – Lush Lashes (GB)
- 2007 – Peeping Fawn (USA)
- 2006 – Alexandrova (IRE)
- 2005 – Punctilious (GB)
- 2004 – Quiff (GB)
- 2003 – Islington (IRE)
- 2002 – Islington (IRE)
- 2001 – Super Tassa (IRE)
- 2000 – Petrushka (IRE)