With Aidan O’Brien responsible for 5 of the last 6 winners and 8 of the last 9 winning favourites, you might question how much can the trends help us here? This is the only oaks which is open to all ages so maybe that’s worth considering?
Well, I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and compared to the last 10 to see if we can work out just what it takes to find the winner of this race, including how helpful the trainer is and market position is.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be a 3yo, be wary of 4yo’s and respect 5yo’s
- Draw doesn’t appear to matter although if any preference it’s for the outer trio of stalls
- Not many shocks in this race looking at SP but favourites are profitable to follow blind
- Backing the highest-rated runner blind is profitable, more so if sent off 7/4 or shorter
- Most likely to come from the Irish Oaks and if doing so only look at O’Brien runners
- Should have won 50% or more of their races and has already won a Group 1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 16/25 (64%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
While 3yo’s are the winning-most age they also account for the majority of runners and show a strike rate of 13%. This isn’t bettered by 4yos who haven’t had a winner since 2013 although 5yo’s operate at a 27% strike rate in the last 25 renewals and are profitable to follow blind.
In the last 10 renewals, it’s 4yo’s again who appears best to avoid and while 6yo’s still have the best strike rate, no age is profitable to back blind.
STALLS
- Drawn in the LOWEST three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST three stalls – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
This typically tends to be a small field contest and performance might not just be down to the draw, it might be who is drawn where. That said, in the last 25 renewals the majority of winners have come from the highest trio of stalls although it’s a much closer split across the last 20 renewals.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
- SP of 4/1 or lower – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
With 8 of the last 10 winners sent off as favourite (8 of the last 9 in fact) it’s understandable that backing the jolly blind would make you money and shows a healthy 65% ROI to SP alone.
In the longer term, it’s still profitable but not quite to the same magnitude and while most winners come in the price bracket of 4/1 or shorter at SP you’d lose money backing all those runners blind.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 10/17 (59%) & 7/10 (70%)
The Top-Rated runner is a profitable system to follow in the Yorkshire Oaks with a 31% ROI this century and 25% ROI in the last decade. Using this blind for this century would be more profitable than just backing Top Rated runners who were also the favourite, but you’d have made more in the last decade by applying both principles. Furthermore, every runner who was the Top Rated runner and sent off 7/4 or shorter has won since 2017 (7/7) which significantly boost the ROI to 79%.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 2 last time out – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 16-60 days – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Last ran in the Irish Oaks – 9/25 (36%) & 6/10 (60%)
There are a few turning trends here in recent years with the model to look for coming from the Irish Oaks. Since 2014, 7 winners of this race came from winning the Irish Oaks and all of those were trained by Aidan O’Brien although 3 of them didn’t win both contests. So, while winning last time out looks to be crucial, it can be forgiven if coming from that contest and trained by Aidan O’Brien.
FORM
- Had won 75% or more of their races that season – 9/25 (36%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won 50% or more of their races in their career – 10/25 (40%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Previous Group 1 winner – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Previous Group 2 or better winner – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last years winner was unbeaten that season which is the fifth winner from the last ten who hasn’t lost that season. Most winners were already a Group 1 winner and none of the last 10 hadn’t at least won a Group 2.
TRAINER
Aidan O’Brien and The Gosdens have been responsible for 8 of the last 10 winners. You wouldn’t make any money blind backing either trainer this century although Aidan O’Brien shows a small £1.83 profit in the last decade, thanks to 9/1 winner Warm Heart in 2023 more than anything. Even just backing the Ryan Moore ridden runner would see you losing 50p in the last decade.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Minnie Hauk (IRE)
- 2024 – Content (IRE)
- 2023 – Warm Heart (IRE)
- 2022 – Alpinista (GB)
- 2021 – Snowfall (JPN)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Enable (GB)
- 2018 – Sea of Class (IRE)
- 2017 – Enable (GB)
- 2016 – Seventh Heaven (IRE)
- 2015 – Pleascach (IRE)
- 2014 – Tapestry (IRE)
- 2013 – The Fugue (GB)
- 2012 – Shareta (IRE)
- 2011 – Blue Bunting (USA)
- 2010 – Midday (GB)
- 2009 – Dar Re Mi (GB)
- 2008 – Lush Lashes (GB)
- 2007 – Peeping Fawn (USA)
- 2006 – Alexandrova (IRE)
- 2005 – Punctilious (GB)
- 2004 – Quiff (GB)
- 2003 – Islington (IRE)
- 2002 – Islington (IRE)
- 2001 – Super Tassa (IRE)
- 2000 – Petrushka (IRE)